US embassy cable - 03HARARE1171

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001171 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
BANGKOK FOR WIN DAYTON 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI FACES NEW TREASON CHARGES, AWAITS BAIL 
HEARING: MUGABE DERIDES MDC, CONDEMNS OUTSIDE INTERFERENCE 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER PEGGY BLACKFORD FOR REASONS 1.5B/D 
 
SUMMARY 
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1. (C)  AFTER A WEEK OF MASS ACTION WHICH PRODUCED LESS THAN 
THE OPPOSITION WOULD HAVE LIKED, MDC LEADER, MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI FOUND HIMSELF UNDER ARREST FOR TREASON ONCE AGAIN. 
 
SIPDIS 
 HE SPENT THE WEEKEND IN JAIL AND IS CURRENTLY AWAITING A 
RULING IN A BAIL HEARING.  PRESIDENT MUGABE SOUNDED 
TRIUMPHANT IN SPEECHES OVER THE WEEKEND GLOATING OVER HIS 
GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO PREVENT DEMONSTRATIONS AND PLACING 
THE BLAME FOR "ILLEGAL" ACTIONS ON THE MDC AND ITS 
SUPPORTERS, THE BRITISH AND US EMBASSIES.  NEGOTIATIONS MAY 
BE MORE DIFFICULT IF THE GOZ BELIEVES IT NOW HAS THE UPPER 
HAND. 
 
MDC LEADER PUTS POSITIVE SPIN ON WEEK'S EVENTS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (U) AT A PRESS CONFERENCE HELD EARLY ON THE AFTERNOON OF 
JUNE 6 AT THE HOME OF THE MDC LEADER, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD 
JOURNALISTS AND DIPLOMATS THAT HE VIEWED THE WEEK'S MASS 
ACTION AS A SUCCESS.  THE STAYAWAY HAD BEEN WIDELY SUPPORTED 
AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE HAD ONLY PREVENTED MASS 
DEMONSTRATIONS BY MASSIVE AND WIDESPREAD USE OF THE POLICE 
AND MILITARY.  HE PROMISED THAT ROLLING MASS ACTIONS WOULD 
CONTINUE WITHOUT NOTICE. 
 
TSVANGIRAI ARRESTED ANEW ON FRESH TREASON CHARGES 
 
SIPDIS 
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3. (C)  SHORTLY AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THE PRESS CONFERENCE, 
TSVANGIRAI WAS PICKED UP BY POLICE AND CHARGED WITH TREASON 
 
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FOR ALLEGEDLY CALLING ON ZIMBABWEANS TO OUST MUGABE FROM 
POWER IN A NUMBER OF PUBLIC GATHERINGS OVER THE LAST FEW 
MONTHS.  HE WAS INCARCERATED AT THE BORROWDALE POLICE STATION 
OVER THE WEEKEND.  ACCORDING TO SPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR, 
GANDI MUDZINGWA, SEVERAL HIGH RANKING GOZ OFFICIALS INCLUDING 
THE MINISTER FOR STATE SECURITY AND THE HEAD OF THE CENTRAL 
INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION SOUGHT TO TALK TO TSVANGIRAI BUT HE 
WAS ALLOWED NO VISITORS EXCEPT FOR HIS WIFE.  FATHER FIDELIS 
MUKONORI, WHO HAS BEEN TRYING TO FACILITATE DIALOGUE BETWEEN 
TSVANGIRAI AND MUGABE, ALSO SOUGHT TO SEE THE MDC LEADER AND 
 
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TOLD MUDZINGWA THAT HE WAS TRYING TO ARRANGE A MEETING 
BETWEEN TSVANGIRAI AND MUGABE FOR THURSDAY.  MUDZINGWA WAS 
SKEPTICAL THAT SUCH A MEETING WOULD TAKE PLACE.  WELSHMAN 
NCUBE, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE MDC, WAS ALSO BEING SOUGHT 
AND, AFTER STAYING OUT OF SIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND, HE PRESENTED 
HIMSELF FOR QUESTIONING BY THE POLICE MONDAY MORNING IN THE 
COMPANY OF HIS ATTORNEY. 
 
TSVANGIRAI BAIL HEARING PENDING 
 
SIPDIS 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON, JUNE 9, JUDGE GARWE WHO 
IS PRESIDING OVER THE ONGOING TREASON TRIAL BEFORE THE HIGH 
COURT DISMISSED THE GOVERNMENT'S APPLICATION TO AMEND CURRENT 
BAIL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD HAVE PREVENTED TSVANGIRAI FROM 
SPEAKING IN PUBLIC.  HE REFUSED, HOWEVER, TO ENTERTAIN THE 
DEFENSE'S APPLICATION FOR BAIL ON THE NEW CHARGES SAYING THAT 
THE MAGISTRATES COURT HAS JURISDICTION IN SUCH MATTERS UNLESS 
THERE IS CONCURRENCE WITH THE ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE.  THE 
DEFENSE AND THE A.G. REACHED AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE AND BAIL 
WILL BE CONSIDERED TOMORROW MORNING BY THE HIGH COURT JUDGE 
ON DUTY. 
 
MUGABE CLAIMS VICTORY, WARNS OUTSIDERS ABOUT INTERFERING 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
5. (SBU) BY LAST WEEK'S END, PRESIDENT MUGABE WAS CLEARLY 
FEELING THAT HE HAD COME OUT AHEAD.  AT A RALLY IN THE 
COUNTRYSIDE ON FRIDAY, JUNE 6, HE JOKED WITH AN AUDIENCE OF 
SUPPORTERS ABOUT THE MDC AND WAS SCORNFUL OF TSVANGIRAI'S 
ASPIRATIONS TO THE PRESIDENCY.  ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNMENT 
OWNED HERALD, HE WAS QUOTED AS LIKENING THE MDC LEADER TO A 
MAN REJECTED BY A WOMEN WHO NONETHELESS CONTINUES TO PURSUE 
HER.  ON SATURDAY AT THE FUNERAL OF MAMA MAFUYANE, WIDOW OF 
THE LATE VICE-PRESIDENT JOSHUA NKOMO, THE PRESIDENT TOOK THIS 
RATHER INAPPROPRIATE OPPORTUNITY TO TELL THE BRITISH AND US 
EMBASSIES TO STOP HELPING THE MDC ACHIEVE AN ILLEGAL 
OBJECTIVE AND TO WARN THAT "THEIR INSTIGATION CANNOT BE 
TOLERATED FOREVER BY MY GOVERNMENT."  A THOUSAND OR SO 
ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS IN THEIR BRAND NEW "NO TO MASS ACTION" 
T-SHIRTS APPLAUDED ENTHUSIASTICALLY. 
 
COMMENT 
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6.  (C)  ALTHOUGH LAST WEEK'S MASS ACTION WAS SUCCESSFUL IN 
CLOSING DOWN MOST BUSINESS IN HARARE AND OTHER CITIES, IT WAS 
SOMETHING OF A PR FAILURE.  TSVANGIRAI APPARENTLY 
OVERESTIMATED HIS SUPPORTERS' COURAGE IN THE FACE OF PROBABLE 
VIOLENCE.  HIS ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE MDC HAD CANCELED 
DEMONSTRATIONS FOR FEAR OF INJURY TO THE PUBLIC SEEMED TO BE 
SPINNING THE NEWS AS BEST HE COULD.  CERTAINLY MUGABE IS 
REACTING AS THOUGH HE IS FIRMLY IN CHARGE AND CAPABLE OF 
DEALING WITH ANY PESKY OPPOSITION THAT MIGHT ARISE.  IF HE 
SINCERELY BELIEVES THIS, IT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SERIOUS 
NEGOTIATIONS.  NONETHELESS, THE TRAIPSING OF ZANU-PF AND 
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TO TSVANGIRAI SHOWS THAT THE REGIME 
RECOGNIZES THAT IT HAS NO WAY OUT OF THE COUNTRY'S CRISIS. 
IN THAT CONTEXT, HEIGHTENING PRESSURE ON TSVANGIRAI AND THE 
MDC THROUGH NEW TREASON CHARGES AND DETENTION CAN BE ANOTHER 
WAY TO WEAKEN THE OPPONENT PRIOR TO UNAVOIDABLE DIALOGUE. 
END COMMENT 
SULLIVAN