US embassy cable - 03ABUDHABI2744

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 002744 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/ARN AND NEA/IPA 
 
NSC FOR THEROUX 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/08 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, KPAL, KWBG, TC 
SUBJECT:  UAE REACTION TO AQABA AND SHARM 
SUMMITS A MIXTURE OF HOPE AND 
SKEPTICISM 
 
REF:  ABU DHABI 2611 
 
1. (U) Classified by Ambassador Marcelle M. Wahba 
for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
2. (C) SUMMARY: UAE reaction to last week's summits in 
Sharm El-Sheikh and Aqaba has been a mixture of 
appreciation for the President's personal engagement, 
skepticism about Sharon's ultimate commitment to a peaceful 
solution and fear for Abu Mazen's political future and 
physical safety.  The press has criticized Hamas' decision 
to continue the armed struggle and expressed fears over the 
outbreak of a Palestinian civil war.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3. (C) MFA Minstate Hamdan bin Zayid telephoned the 
Ambassador over the local weekend with his own assessment 
of the Aqaba summit.  While he felt that the statements 
issued by the four leaders were encouraging, Hamdan remains 
worried about actual implementation of the roadmap and the 
many Israeli reservations.  Hamdan reported that the 
Emirati leadership believes Abu Mazen said all the right 
things but fears that he will be further weakened in 
Palestinian circles if he does not get some kind of 
substantive response from the Israelis.  (Comment:  The 6/8 
joint attacks on Israeli soldiers have no doubt further fed 
fears of Abu Mazen's marginalization and inability to stem 
future attacks.  End Comment.) 
 
4. (C) Former UAE Oil Minister Mana'a Saeed Al-Otaiba, in a 
June 7 meeting with the Ambassador (other topics covered 
septel), expressed his trepidation about Abu Mazen's 
safety.  Al-Otaiba, noting that Abu Mazen was a close 
personal friend and that Abu Mazen's elder brother had been 
his primary school teacher in Qatar in the late 1950s/early 
1960s, recalled a recent private meeting with Abu Mazen in 
Morocco.  In Al-Otaiba's view, Abu Mazen was faced with a 
very daunting task, governing a people who were difficult 
to manage in the best of times, with limited resources and 
absent the basic tools with which to maintain security. 
Al-Otaiba was not surprised by Abu Mazen's decision not to 
take back Palestinian territory until he could adequately 
control the security situation.  Shaykh Hamdan had raised 
this point in an earlier conversation with the Ambassador 
(reftel). 
 
5. (U) The UAE press also took a pragmatic approach toward 
the Aqaba and Sharm summits.  The English daily Gulf Today 
opined that "the spate of pledges by the participants of 
the Aqaba summit should have raised waves of hope all 
around the Red Sea had it been made under more realistic 
circumstances.  But neither Palestinian Prime Minister 
Mahmoud Abbas nor Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would 
swear on what they pledged in the presence of U.S. 
President George W. Bush, now in the role of a peacemaker." 
The paper's editorial went on to note that "it would be 
naive to believe that Sharon would get the approval from 
his extreme right wing colleagues for dismantling 
settlements."  The English daily Gulf News feared that "the 
sudden announcement by Hamas to break off talks with the 
Palestinian National Authority (PNA) could give rise to a 
Palestinian civil war that will undermine the roadmap and 
detract Palestinians from their goal of regaining their 
national rights." 
 
WAHBA