US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU1060

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001060 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA/NESA - TAYLOR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: NEPALI CONGRESS SAID TO BE JOINING NEW GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 1011 
 
Classified By: CDA ROBERT K. BOGGS.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  The Nepali Congress will likely join a Cabinet 
headed by new Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, according 
to a party Central Committee member, primarily because of 
Indian pressure.  If the Nepali Congress joins, the Communist 
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) will have to 
overcome its disgruntlement and join, or risk being left out 
in the cold, the source said.  Nepali Congress Party 
President G.P. Koirala has begun tempering his public 
statements, noting his party might join the Thapa government 
if the new Prime Minister commits to reinstating Parliament. 
The Maoists, meanwhile, likely alarmed at the suggested 
rapprochement between the Palace and the mainstream parties, 
continue to try to discredit Thapa's appointment by claiming 
it was motivated by foreign pressure.  End summary. 
 
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IF THE NEPALI CONGRESS JOINS, 
CAN THE UML BE FAR BEHIND? 
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2.  (U) As of COB on June 9, newly appointed Prime Minister 
Surya Bahadur Thapa had still not announced any members of 
the new Cabinet.  The local weekend press gave prominent 
coverage to his efforts to coax such participation from the 
two largest parties, the Communist Party of Nepal - United 
Marxist Leninist (UML) and the Nepali Congress, as well as 
the splinter Nepali Congress (Democratic), led by former PM 
Sher Bahadur Deuba.  The party leaders' public statements 
since Thapa's appointment on June 4 reiterate their 
disinclination to join his government, although Nepali 
Congress Party President G.P. Koirala told the press on June 
7 that his party would "support" the new PM if he reinstates 
Parliament or sets a date for new elections. 
 
3.  (C) On June 7 Nepali Congress Central Committee member 
Ram Thapaliya told poloff that he believes that his party 
will join the Cabinet within a week or two.  Thapaliya 
pointed to Indian support for Thapa and Indian pressure on 
Koirala to cooperate as the decisive factors.  Koirala had 
given only nominal support to UML General Secretary Madhav 
Nepal as the consensus candidate for Prime Minister (Reftel) 
because Koirala was fairly certain that his long-time rival's 
candidacy, which was opposed by the Palace, the Maoists, and 
the Indians, never had a chance of succeeding, Thapaliya 
indicated.  Koirala will be unable to withstand Indian 
pressure to join the Cabinet, Thapaliya predicted, but will 
likely exact some assurance that the new PM will reinstate 
Parliament in return.  If the Nepali Congress joins the 
government, the UML, rather than being left out in the cold, 
will have to swallow its disgruntlement at not gaining the 
top post and join as well, he predicted.  Although public 
posturing against Thapa's appointment will persist for "a 
week or two" for face-saving purposes, ultimately the PM will 
succeed in broadening his Cabinet, Thapaliya concluded. 
 
4.  (U) The public posturing seems likely to continue in the 
near term.  The five parties already have announced the next 
phase of their "joint agitation" against "royal regression," 
including a protest at tax offices on June 10, youth rallies 
in assorted districts on June 13, and a nationwide women's 
rally on June 18. 
 
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MAOIST SHRILLNESS ON "FOREIGN 
HAND" INTENSIFIES 
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5.  (U) Maoist rhetoric decrying Thapa's appointment as the 
result of foreign--including US--interference continues 
unabated.  The insurgents have offered to join the five-party 
"joint agitation" specifically to denounce "foreign 
intervention" in Nepal--a theme the five parties so far have 
not echoed.  Speaking at a rally in the mid-western district 
of Palpa on June 7, Ram Bahadur Thapa (a.k.a. "Badal"), the 
Maoist military commander, said that his party is reviewing 
"how we can launch a movement together" with the five 
parties.  On June 8 the Maoist-aligned All Nepal National 
Independent Student Union - Revolutionary (ANNISU-R) 
announced that it will support the indefinite strike against 
educational institutions, set to commence on June 15, called 
by seven other student unions aligned with the mainstream 
political parties. 
 
6.  (U)  Also on June 8 the "National People's Agitation 
Committee" released a press statement blaming the 
"involvement of Americans, Indians and other imperialist 
powers" for obstructing progress in the peace talks and 
criticizing "the appointment of Surya Bahadur Thapa as the 
prime minister under the instruction of foreign forces."  The 
Committee's press statement announced its decision to seek 
"joint agitation" to "create pressure from the people" to 
make "the regressive forces bow down." 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C) Indian influence in Nepal's domestic politics in 
general and the current scenario in particular is taken as an 
article of faith among a wide range of our interlocutors. 
Indian influence is believed to be particularly strong in the 
Nepali Congress Party, which has benefited from covert Indian 
financial and political support for decades.  Koirala's 
recent public statements indicating a softer stance--if the 
new PM agrees to reinstate Parliament or at least schedule 
elections--may well be the result of some of that influence 
being brought to bear.  The Maoists may perceive that Thapa's 
appointment may array the mainstream political forces against 
them.  Hence their increasingly strident rhetoricical 
attempts to discredit Thapa as a tool of "foreign 
intervention."  There is no evidence thus far that their 
anti-American pitch is resonating, either with the political 
parties or the general public, who largely perceive 
(correctly, we believe) that Indian support was crucial to 
Thapa's appointment. 
BOGGS