US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA1454

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001454 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, PHUM, SNAR, GT 
SUBJECT: FRG REACTS TO USG STATEMENT ABOUT RIOS MONTT 
CANDIDACY 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Guatemala\'s anti-government dailies gave 
prominent play to the Department\'s May 27 statement 
expressing concern over the presidential candidacy of former 
de facto president Efrain Rios Montt.  Zury Rios and other 
prominent FRG contacts immediately weighed in with the 
Ambassador and Embassy Officers to express their 
disappointment with the U.S. position.  The opposition has 
been privately pleased with the U.S. statement, though public 
reaction has been limited. We do not know to what extent FRG 
pique will affect the leadership they have taken in Congress 
in promoting legislation of importance to us.  End summary 
 
2. (U) State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher\'s May 27 
statement that \"in light of Mr. Rios Montt\'s background, it 
would be difficult to have a cordial relationship\" with a 
government headed by the former general, were he elected 
President, played prominently in the Guatemalan press on May 
28-29.  Rios Montt responded by telling reporters that he has 
no doubt that the United States, as the foremost promoter of 
democracy in the world, will uphold the choice of the 
Guatemalan people in the upcoming election.  He added that he 
does not understand why the United States could be worried 
about him winning the election, as Americans are generally 
firm believers in opinion polls, and the most recent voter 
preference polls give him only three percent.  In response to 
questions during a May 30 press roundtable in Guatemala City, 
visiting Acting WHA Assistant Secretary Curt Struble 
reiterated Spokesman Boucher\'s statement without elaboration. 
 President Portillo has not commented on the statement, and 
Vice President Reyes limited himself to saying he had not yet 
seen it. 
 
3. (C) Rios Montt\'s daughter and Second Vice President of 
Congress Zury Rios called on the Ambassador on June 2 to 
express her disappointment with the U.S. statement.  She 
believes that the newest statement implies that relations 
between the U.S. and a Rios Montt government would be 
\"unfriendly,\" which she views as significantly different from 
the characterization of \"awkward\" that had been transmitted 
to her privately by Deputy Assistant Secretary Dan Fisk in 
November, 2002.  She was \"shocked and taken aback\" by the 
\"strong\" USG statement, particularly in light of the FRG\'s 
consistent and almost single-handed promotion of USG 
interests in Congress during these past three years (e.g. 
passage of legislation covering money laundering, IPR, labor 
rights, asset forfeiture, maritime counternarcotics 
cooperation, Mayan Jaguar counter-narcotics exercises, New 
Horizons and more).  The Ambassador told her that the newest 
public statement and earlier private statements were 
essentially the same: that, given the history, there is a 
political reality beyond our control that would make it 
extremely difficult to have the kind of friendly relationship 
with Guatemala that we would ideally prefer.  Zury Rios 
closed by saying that if Rios Montt is elected to the 
presidency in November, the U.S. will continue to get \"far 
better cooperation from the FRG on a full range of issues 
than (the USG) would get from any of the other parties.\" 
 
4. (C) Embassy officers have also received complaints from 
Minister of Finance Eduardo Weymann and First Secretary of 
Congress Haroldo Quej, who believe the USG position is 
\"unfair\" and unbalanced by not mentioning USG concerns about 
other candidates (including human rights concerns in the case 
of URNG candidate Rodrigo Asturias, and corruption concerns 
in the case of others).  Foreign Minister Edgar Gutierrez 
told the Ambassador that the FRG bloc in Congress is very 
upset (\"muy molestos\") with us. 
 
5. (C) Private sector leaders, in conversations with the 
Ambassador and Embassy Officers on May 30 and June 2, were 
elated at the USG statement, and believe that it was 
important for the USG to weigh in at a time when Guatemalan 
institutions are under pressure from the FRG to allow Rios 
Montt to become a candidate in apparent violation of the 
constitution.  Civil society leaders have also been 
supportive, by and large, though nationalistic concerns may 
have contributed to keeping their support for the statement 
private for now. 
 
6. (U) Public reaction has been relatively muted.  Op ed 
writers, who typically latch on to matters confronting the 
USG with the government and the ruling FRG, have largely 
resisted commenting on these latest statements.  One paper 
gave prominent play to an interview with URNG Congressman 
Ricardo Rosales who said it was \"unacceptable\" for a foreign 
government to \"interfere\" with the electoral process in 
Guatemala, arguing that it is up to Guatemalans to decide who 
their next president will be. 
 
7. (C) Comment: USG concerns over Rios Montt\'s presidential 
ambitions have long been known by the FRG and its opponents. 
Now that the United States view has been placed unambiguously 
in the public spotlight, Guatemala\'s official institutions 
that will ultimately have to decide on the constitutionality 
of Rios Montt\'s candidacy will know that their decision will 
face international scrutiny.  It is too soon to evaluate what 
reaction Guatemalan voters will have to USG engagement on the 
Rios Montt candidacy.  We do not know to what extent FRG 
pique will impact on their helpfulness thus far in securing 
votes in Congress on issues that are crucial to us (i.e. the 
counter-narcotics maritime agreement, which has been driven 
by Zury Rios), but we expect cooperation may well be impacted 
in areas of legislation of secondary importance. 
MCFARLAND