US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO970

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000970 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, EUR/NB, EAP/J 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  06/05/13 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, EAID, CE, NO, JA, IN, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  GSL looks forward to Tokyo and hopes for big 
impact; Tigers' apparent non-participation casts shadow 
 
Refs:  Colombo 960, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills. 
Reasons:  1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The GSL is looking forward to the Tokyo 
donors conference, hoping for a big impact both 
politically and financially.  That said, the Tigers' 
apparent non-participation is casting a bit of a shadow. 
The Norwegians plan to be represented in Tokyo by 
development officials.  India may be represented by its 
ambassador to Japan.  On the financial side, donors are 
gearing up to make fairly robust pledges.  Although 
original expectations for Tokyo are down somewhat due to 
the Tigers, the conference is set to provide crucial 
support for the next phase of the peace process.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
----------- 
On to Tokyo 
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2.  (C) The Sri Lankan government is looking forward to 
the June 9-10 Tokyo donors conference, hoping for a big 
impact both politically and financially.  In a 
conversation with Ambassador Wills on June 5, Minister 
Milinda Moragoda, a key assistant to Prime Minister 
Wickremesinghe, said the government hopes that Tokyo 
will provide "a fresh impetus" to the peace process. 
In addition, the government hopes that it will obtain 
the "political, moral and financial support" needed to 
carry on.  Moragoda also said that he hoped Tokyo would 
send the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) "a 
message that their foot stomping and immature behavior" 
will not be rewarded.  (Note:  See Paras 8-9 for the 
prime minister's comments on the Tigers' apparent non- 
participation in Tokyo and their June 4 letter.) 
(Note:  Late June 5, the Ambassador also held a brief 
meeting with Moragoda.  A brief readout of this meeting 
was sent to SA and SA/INS in an unclass e-mail.  Among 
other matters, Moragoda again stressed the importance of 
using the conference to underscore international support 
for the peace process.  In reference to the Tigers' 
latest demand -- see more below, Moragoda said the GSL 
could support formation of an interim administration in 
the north/east, but only as part of a well-scripted 
process and only after confidence is restored.) 
 
3.  (C) With respect to the financial side (see more on 
pledges in Para 12), Moragoda told the Ambassador that 
he hoped donors at Tokyo would favor what he called a 
"lockbox" approach to pledging.  By this, he said he 
meant that they would express their pledge and say the 
money would be put in a metaphorical lockbox.  That 
lockbox would be unlocked when the LTTE rejoined the 
process in a constructive way, he remarked. 
 
4.  (C) Re the U.S. message at Tokyo, Moragoda commented 
that the peace process was a bit "amorphous" at the 
moment.  He hoped that Deputy Secretary Armitage in his 
remarks will "emphatically state that Sri Lanka needs a 
process, a road map, a new direction and milestones" so 
that the peace attempt reacquires direction.  He kept 
returning to this point throughout the conversation. 
Moragoda also suggested that the two sides need to be 
reminded of the goal they agreed to at the Oslo 
conference in November 2002, namely their joint support 
for formation of a federal structure in a united 
country.  Moragoda added that there was no need for the 
U.S. to get into nitty gritty issues, such as the 
military's "high security zones" in Jaffna and whether 
the GSL has moved fast enough to withdraw its troops in 
that area. 
 
5.  (C) Re earlier reports that President Kumaratunga 
would do a video message to be shown at the conference, 
Moragoda said it appears she will not/not do it. 
Moragoda said that might change, however.  (Note: 
Presidential spokesman Harim Peiris told us on June 5 
that the president would definitely not be doing a video 
and had no plans for involvement in the conference.  He 
said the president and the PM might be meeting before 
the latter's departure for Tokyo, but that meeting might 
be put off.  In his meeting late June 5 with the 
Ambassador, Moragoda confirmed that, in the end, the 
president had indeed decided not/not to do the video 
feed.) 
 
6.  (SBU) On other aspects of the conference, Moragoda 
said Norway will serve as a co-chair and will be 
represented either by the minister or deputy minister of 
development cooperation.  (Note:  See comments of 
Norwegian polchief in Para 10.  Also, see comments in 
Para 11 re possible Indian representation.)  In the 
meantime, the European Union would be represented by Guy 
Legras, External Affairs Commissioner Chris Patten's 
deputy.  Moragoda said he had just heard that Canada 
will be represented at below the political level and 
will hold back some of their total pledge until the 
Tigers rejoin the whole process. 
 
7.  (SBU) Closing on an operational note, Moragoda said 
he planned to meet with the four co-chairs (Japan, 
Norway, the EU, and the U.S.) at the conference hotel at 
4:00 P.M. on Sunday, June 8.  He would then meet with 
other officials who were coming to the conference 
(ambassadors, representatives of multilateral 
organizations and international financial institutions, 
etc.) at 5:00 P.M. the same day.  (Note:  Ambassador 
Wills plans to attend both of these meetings, in 
addition to one with representatives of European 
countries at 2:00 P.M. on June 8.)  (Note:  We have e- 
mailed to SA/INS a tentative list of Sri Lankan 
government participants at the Tokyo conference.) 
 
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Tigers' probable absence casts Shadow 
------------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) While there are still high hopes for Tokyo, the 
apparent non-participation of the Liberation Tigers of 
Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is casting a bit of a shadow.  This 
is especially the case given the Tigers' pointed June 4 
rejection of the GSL's latest offer re assistance 
delivery modalities for the north/east.  (Note:  In its 
latest exchanges with the GSL, the LTTE has not actually 
mentioned Tokyo.  The group, however, has given no 
indication that it plans to reconsider its late April 
decision not to go.  Despite entreaties from a group of 
European envoys visiting the LTTE-controlled Wanni 
region on June 4, for example, the Tigers reportedly 
would give no commitment on going to Tokyo -- a fax has 
been sent to SA/INS with information about this visit. 
The Tigers' June 4 letter, mentioned above, is reviewed 
in detail in Reftel.  Also, see Septel containing local 
media reaction, which focuses on the Tigers' letter. 
End Note.)  In a meeting late June 4 with visiting 
Deputy USAID administrator Schieck and the Ambassador, 
PM Wickremesinghe seemed in a very pensive mood 
regarding the peace process, noting that he did not 
expect the LTTE to be present at Tokyo.  Queried about 
the LTTE's June 4 letter, the PM said the negative 
response from the Tigers was something the GSL fully 
expected at this point.  The prime minister did not 
indicate how or when the GSL intended to reply to the 
group. 
 
9.  (C) In another conversation late June 4, polchief 
found Bradman Weerakoon, a close adviser to the PM, also 
in a pensive mood.  In comments similar to those we have 
picked up from other government officials, Weerakoon 
said he believed that Tokyo would have a very positive 
impact, but he clearly felt disappointed that the LTTE 
-- at its very own choice -- was apparently not going to 
be there. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Norwegian, Indian Representation in Tokyo 
----------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) Regarding his government's role at Tokyo, 
Norwegian Embassy polchief Tomas Stangeland confirmed 
Moragoda's comments that the GoN would be represented by 
development officials.  There would be political-level 
representation, but at a lower level with Ambassador to 
Sri Lanka Hans Brattskar and some other MFA officials 
present.  Because Norway wanted to maintain its position 
as a "neutral" facilitator (given that the Tigers 
appeared not to be participating), neither Deputy 
Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen nor Special Envoy Erik 
Solheim would be in Tokyo.  Stangeland related that the 
GoN had originally thought that it would try to avoid 
being seen as one of the sponsors of the conference if 
the Tigers did not participate (this, in the interests 
of appearing more "neutral").  The Norwegian government, 
however, had in the end decided to serve as one of the 
co-chairs, he said. 
 
11.  (C) With respect to India, Taranjit Sandhu, Indian 
High Commission polchief, told us that it was possible 
that the Indian ambassador to Japan would participate in 
the conference.  India, however, did not want to attend 
if the Tigers were there, and it was still not clear 
exactly what the LTTE planned to do.  With the LTTE 
apparently not participating, however, Sandhu thought 
that possibly cleared the way for India to attend. 
 
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Expected Pledges 
---------------- 
 
12.  (C) Re the financial side, donors are gearing up to 
make fairly robust pledges.  Mission has surveyed the 
donor community and collected the following information 
on level of representation and, where available, likely 
pledges (Note -- Some of the information on 
representation was already flagged above): 
 
-- Japan:  Prime Minister to make an opening statement, 
Foreign Minister to attend. 
 
-- EU Commission:  DG of External Affairs Guy Legras. 
Pledge: 20 million Euros. 
 
-- EU Presidency:  Director of Asian Office, Greek MFA. 
Individual member states will pledge. 
 
-- Norway:  Either Minister or Deputy Minister of 
Development Cooperation. 
 
-- Australia:  Australian High Commissioner to Sri 
Lanka, along with a rep from Australian MFA.  Pledge: 
AUD 32 million over two years. 
 
-- Sweden:  Charge of Swedish Embassy in Sri Lanka, 
along with MFA division head for Asia.  Pledge: USD 41 
million (includes existing program). 
 
-- UK:  DFID Director Asia:  USD 40 million over 3 
years. 
 
-- Netherlands:  Dutch Ambassador to Sri Lanka. 
Pledge:  11 million Euros (existing program). 
 
-- Germany:  German Ambassador to Sri Lanka.  Pledge: 13 
million Euros (existing program). 
-- ADB:  Bank President.  Pledge: USD 200 million 
(existing program; new funding under discussion). 
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COMMENT 
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13.  (C) Original expectations that Tokyo would be "big 
bang" for the peace process are down somewhat.  This is 
mainly due to the fact that the LTTE, of late, has 
thrown a wrench into the process by pulling out of the 
talks and out of Tokyo.  (Note:  The latter decision 
could still be reversed, of course -- there are several 
days left until Tokyo takes place, but it seems very 
unlikely.)  That said, per Moragoda's comments, there 
remains a widespread belief among Sri Lankans and among 
most of the donors, including the Japanese and the 
Norwegians, that the conference will provide crucial 
support for the underlying peace process, which 
continues apace and uninterrupted.  Moreover, the fact 
that expectations have come down a bit is basically a 
net positive, as it is easier to surpass them in that 
case.  Nonetheless, with GSL-LTTE relations in a trough, 
Tokyo is set to be seminal moment for the next stage of 
the peace process, especially as efforts are made to get 
it firmly back on track in the coming weeks and months. 
END COMMENT. 
 
14.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS