US embassy cable - 03THEHAGUE1417

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 001417 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S/WCI - PROSPER/MILLER, EUR - BOGUE, EUR/SCE 
- JONES/GREGORIAN, L/EUR - LAHNE, INR/WCAD - SPRIGG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6 FIVE YEARS AFTER CLOSURE OF ICTY 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, BK, HR, SR, NL, ICTY 
SUBJECT: ICTY: IS MILOSEVIC HOLDING UP? 
 
REF: A. BELGRADE 810 
 
     B. THE HAGUE 209 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Legal Counselor Clifton M. Johnson per 1.5 (b) and (d) a 
nd 1.6. 
 
1. (C) Summary: The last two months have dealt blows to 
Slobodan Milosevic from 
Belgrade and within the trial chamber of the International 
Criminal Tribunal 
for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY).  In the ICTY, a series of 
witnesses have hammered Milosevic with crime-based details of 
the joint criminal enterprise of which Milosevic is alleged 
to be the head.  As in the past, such challenges have been 
coupled with a decline in Milosevic's health, whether 
genuinely brought on by the tensions of the trial, 
manipulated for tactical reasons to prompt a trial delay, or 
a combination of the two.  Meanwhile, the series of actions 
taken by the Government of Serbia and Montenegro (GOSAM) to 
round up those connected to the criminal gangs associated 
with the assassination of Zoran Djindjic has damaged his 
support network and further increased the pressure on him. In 
discussions with well-placed officials in the Registry and 
the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) and based on their 
observations of him at trial, Embassy legal officers have 
gathered a mixed picture of Milosevic's physical and mental 
health. End 
summary. 
 
2. (C) Embassy Belgrade has reported extensively on the law 
enforcement actions taken by the GOSAM since the March 
assassination of Zoran Djindjic, which in the process has 
netted much of Milosevic's former colleagues in running the 
former Yugoslavia (ref a, among others). Much of the round-up 
has hit Milosevic directly.  Close observers of the trial, 
including those within OTP and the Registry, have long 
believed that Markovic has given general direction to the 
accused's defense efforts and led the political efforts on 
his behalf, supported by Simatovic, Stanisic and a bevy of 
Serb lawyers and bureaucratic (security, military, police) 
holdovers from the Milosevic regime.  A Registry official has 
seen evidence that the support such persons provided is now 
drying up, leaving Milosevic increasingly isolated in his 
prison cell. 
 
3. (C) In the weeks following the ICTY's spring recess (April 
21 - 25), lead prosecutor 
Geoffrey Nice (protect), who sees Milosevic in the courtroom 
regularly, did not detect 
noticeable changes in his physical appearance or his ability 
to concentrate on the proceedings or conduct 
cross-examination.  However, Registry senior legal officer 
Christian Rohde (protect), who sees Milosevic on a weekly 
basis outside the courtroom and monitors his health closely, 
gave a markedly different take.  He told embassy legal 
officers that 
Milosevic had lost "a couple of kilos" in the past few weeks 
alone.  Rohde said 
that those who see him outside of the proceedings believe 
that his defense is 
"totally weakening" and that it appears that he has lost 
access to his sources 
of intelligence and finances, something, Rohde averred, that 
is showing in his 
diminished level of trail preparation.  The Registry has 
Milosevic's blood pressure under 
control at this time, but that is only because he is taking 
his medication as 
prescribed.  If Milosevic goes off his medication, as he has 
done before, the health problems that have disrupted the 
trial in the past could come to the fore once again.  On May 
27, Milosevic came down with a high fever, causing the trial 
chamber to adjourn the trial for two days.  However, the 
trial resumed on May 29. 
 
4. (C) Senior trial attorney Dermot Groome (protect) 
concurred with Nice's view that, if the accused is suffering 
physically, his appearance does not reflect it in any 
worrying way.  Embassy legal officers, who see Milosevic far 
less often than the prosecutors or Registry officials, noted 
that while Milosevic looked a bit gaunt during some 
proceedings in May, he did not look ill.  Yet during the week 
of May 13, Groome told an embassy legal officer that, while 
he did not detect serious physical problems with Milosevic 
aside from some gauntness, he did notice a few changes in his 
preparation and courtroom behavior.  (Note: Groome cautioned 
that these were initial impressions and could not be taken to 
reflect any kind of medical or psychological evaluation.) 
Groome said that on May 8, the accused showed signs of 
"disconnected thought processes" in his cross-examination, an 
area in which Milosevic was usually strong.  His questions on 
cross were disjointed and did not seem to attend toward any 
particular goal.  Groome found particularly disturbing an 
event in May 9, when, at the conclusion of his cross 
examination, Milosevic stood around with the amici curiae 
(the "friends of the court" assisting the defense but not 
defending him per se) and "giggled and engaged in silly" 
conversation -- something he'd never seen Milosevic do in 
over one year of trial proceedings.  It could be fatigue, 
Groome suggested, but in a worst-case scenario, it could also 
spell the beginning of some kind of physical or mental 
exhaustion.  If the latter, Groome worried that the chamber 
could be put in an even trickier bind than it is currently 
(i.e., where it must monitor the accused's blood pressure) 
because it would need to monitor his ability or competency to 
defend himself.  Moreover, with a series of insider witnesses 
appearing in the coming weeks, Groome is worried about the 
possible cumulative effect of evidence and outside pressures 
on Milosevic's health. 
 
5. (U) Meanwhile, an outburst by Milosevic during the 
presentation of "crime-base" evidence by the prosecution over 
the past few weeks resulted in a significant admission that 
the prosecution intends to exploit.  Protected witness 
B-1461, a farmer from outside Zvornik, testified to the 
brutality of a Bosnian Serb paramilitary group under Dusan 
Vuckovic.  During cross-examination, Milosevic asserted that 
"I and the authorities of Serbia" punished Vuckovic as a war 
criminal for his actions.  While Milosevic may have thought 
that he was distancing himself from the crimes described, the 
outburst also provide an admission of a degree of 
disciplinary authority that he exercised over Bosnian Serb 
paramilitaries -- contrary to his normal insistence that 
Belgrade had nothing to do with the paramilitaries. 
 
6. (U) On May 20, the trial chamber granted the prosecution's 
request for an additional 100 trial days beginning May 16 for 
it to complete its case.  Milosevic did not object to the 
request reportedly stating to the judges, "Time has been the 
only consideration in what you call a trial."  The trial 
chamber concluded that circumstances exist to vary the 
original order calling for the prosecution to finish its case 
by May 16, and that it is in the interests of justice to 
allow the prosecution to call as many witnesses as possible 
relating to its core case.  (There have been more than 50 
days lost due to Milosevic's ill health since the trial 
began.)  The extension  means that the trial will most likely 
continue into 2005.  The trial chamber noted that without a 
final prosecution witness list, it is difficult for the 
accused to adequately prepare his defense.  The prosecution 
stated that they would finalize the witness list shortly. 
 
7. (C) Comment: Milosevic is entering the final stage of the 
trial against him in a significantly weaker  position than he 
was just a few months ago.  To outside observers, the 
prosecution seems to have hit its stride, with credible 
witnesses testifying to terrible crimes committed by those 
who were affiliated with Milosevic or his supporters. 
Milosevic seems to lack the resources to intimidate and 
rattle witnesses as he has done in the past.  Meanwhile, his 
support network is dissipating -- it is unlikely that he has 
spoken to the person closest to him, his wife, since early 
April, when she was targeted for arrest by Belgrade law 
enforcement authorities.  The big question facing the 
prosecutors and the bench at this stage is whether the flood 
of bad news will eventually overwhelm Milosevic's physical 
and/or mental health.  Milosevic, though diminished, is not 
near that stage now but the coming weeks should make clearer 
whether the recent downturn in his health was a another in a 
series of temporary fluctuations or the beginning of a more 
sustained decline.  End comment. 
SOBEL