US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA1567

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001567 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CA, Liberal Party 
SUBJECT: (C/NF) CANADA,S LIBERAL LEADERSHIP CONTEST: A RACE 
FOR THE CURE 
 
 
Classified By: POL M/C BRIAN M. FLORA.  REASON 1.5 B and D. 
 
1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. With the official launching in April of 
the leadership campaigns of Deputy PM John Manley and Liberal 
backbencher Paul Martin, the three-way contest to succeed PM 
Jean Chretien -- Canada's race for a political cure -- is 
officially on.  Though the Liberal Leadership convention is 
slated for November, observers believe that Martin,s victory 
will be sealed in September when the dozen or so delegates 
from each of 301 Liberal ridings across the country are 
announced.  The trick will be getting Chretien to quit before 
his announced date of February 2004 -- a daunting task -- in 
order to minimize the transition chaos.  Meanwhile, our 
meetings with Martin supporters and close advisors indicate a 
pragmatic leadership-in-waiting already engaged in damage 
control within the GOC and at work on a blueprint for 
U.S.-Canada relations. If Martin's May 1 foreign policy 
speech is any indication, under his leadership we can expect 
a positive change in Canada's handling of the bilateral 
agenda. END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C/NF) A successful businessman and former Finance 
Minister, Paul Martin leads the three-way race in campaign 
funds, organization and name recognition. Discussions with a 
range of Martin supporters, from consultants to Members of 
Parliament, and Martin staffers, suggest that PM Chretien,s 
likely successor already has a quiet handle on the rudder of 
the Canadian ship of state.  Chretien's reputation as a 
gritty and tenacious politician notwithstanding, we 
understand that pro-Martin MPs dominate the Liberal Caucus 
and are poised to quash controversial "legacy" initiatives -- 
such as political party finance reform and, it appears, 
marijuana decriminalization -- that would undermine the new 
PM,s agenda.  Whether the Caucus and the Party can persuade 
Chretien to retire early -- for the sake of Party and Country 
-- is another question. 
 
3. (C/NF) In his first major foreign policy statement May 1, 
Martin painted a pragmatic and business-practical vision of 
"Canada,s Role in a Complex World," identifying Canada,s 
relationship with the U.S. as a cornerstone of that role.  He 
pledged a "systematic and coordinated effort to confirm and 
strengthen the Canada-US partnership," to include a permanent 
Cabinet Committee on Canada-US Relations chaired by the Prime 
Minister and a House of Commons Committee on Canada-US 
relations.  In the context of North American security, Martin 
called for development of a comprehensive national security 
policy for Canada, the only G-8 country without such a 
policy.  Though the very fact of articulating a "vision" 
would distinguish Martin from Chretien, the one-time Finance 
Minister and backbench challenger was also well spoken and 
thoughtful in his delivery. 
 
4. (C/NF) A key element of the Martin campaign strategy has 
been to emphasize the differences between Martin and the PM, 
in both style and content, and to portray a pro-active and 
pragmatic (as opposed to reactive and ambivalent) philosophy 
of governance.  The contrast could not be greater, or easier, 
to achieve:  While the PM pledges (non-existent) support for 
a UN intervention in the Congo, Martin offers to share 
federal gas tax revenues with Canada,s beleaguered, 
cash-hungry cities. Similarly, as Martin and his advisors 
focus on a blueprint to re-invigorate the US-Canada bilateral 
relationship (6 months ahead of the convention), Chretien 
seizes the international venue of the G-8 summit to sharply 
criticize the economic leadership of President Bush and boast 
about Canada,s economic success. Fortunately, if anecdotal 
evidence and media comments contain a shred of truth, so far 
the PM is not winning the PR battle. 
 
5. (C/NF) Veteran observers have speculated that the 
three-way leadership contest is a fig leaf to avoid the 
"un-Canadian" and "un-Liberal" appearance of a Martin 
coronation, and probably involves behind-the-scenes 
agreements among the PMO, the Liberal Party and the 
candidates themselves.  A retired former Canadian 
Ambassador-turned-consultant who claims to "know" Chretien 
says that such political arrangements are not unusual and 
would be desirable for the sake of image among the Canadian 
public. Deputy PM John Manley's stake in such an arrangement 
would be to develop his prospects for a post-Martin Prime 
Ministership (visibility, experience etc.) whereas Heritage 
Minister Sheila Copps' likely reward might be a prestigious 
"permanent" (to age 75) appointment -- perhaps as Senator -- 
that would guarantee her income to retirement age and a 
generous government pension. Proponents of this theory point 
to the recent and unexpected retirement of a senior Senator 
-- at Chretien's "request"-- as paving the way for such 
rewards to loyalists. 
 
6. (C/NF) COMMENT:  With a majority of Liberal MPs (including 
Cabinet Ministers) openly in the Martin camp, as well as 
Liberal Party President Stephen LeDrew, the logical reality 
is that PM Chretien no longer controls the House Caucus. 
This could explain his bizarre anti-American public musings 
-- the only thing under his control, and with the added 
benefit of making PR mischief for the growing majority only 
too eager to push him out the door.  In this regard, we 
should not underestimate Chretien's capacity to manipulate 
the system if it serves his purpose, including to prorogue 
the Parliament until after the November election and/or 
sticking around as PM some three months after Paul Martin is 
elected Liberal Leader. At the same time, at least there is a 
light at the end of the tunnel. END COMMENT. 
CELLUCCI