US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU1011

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001011 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  PARTISAN RIVALRY MAY PREVENT CONSENSUS ON 
INTERIM PM 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 0999 
     B. KATHMANDU 0991 
     C. KATHMANDU 0814 
 
Classified By: CDA ROBERT K. BOGGS.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  It seems unlikely that the seven political parties 
will be able to offer King Gyanendra a consensus candidate 
for Prime Minister by the June 2 deadline he gave them on May 
30 (Ref A).  Three smaller parties--each of whom is pressing 
its own leader as a potential PM--might succeed in 
undermining the nomination of Madhav Nepal, the Communist 
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) General 
Secretary, who has emerged as the preferred candidate of the 
 
SIPDIS 
four other parties.  Some politicians interpret the King's 
inclusion of the three small "spoiler" parties as a 
calculated effort to thwart consensus--thereby allowing him 
to appoint another PM of his own choosing.  However, since 
the political parties have been clamoring for an all-party 
government, the King's reasoning that all seven parties ought 
to participate in the process seems justifiable.  The Embassy 
has appealed to all the major political parites to take 
advantage of the King's initiative.  That said, the domestic 
political environment may prove too rancorous to permit 
consensus on this matter.  End summary. 
 
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CONSENSUS COUNTDOWN 
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2.  (C)  It appears increasingly unlikely that the seven 
major political parties will be able to offer King Gyanendra 
a consensus candidate for interim prime minister by the late 
June 2 deadline he set in his May 30 meeting with them (Ref 
A).  While four of the five political parties who have been 
protesting against the King for more than a month (the Nepali 
Congress; the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist 
Leninist; the People's Front Nepal; and the Peasants and 
Workers Party) have agreed to back the nomination of UML 
General Secretary Madhav Nepal, the remaining three parties 
(the National Democratic Party; one faction of the Nepal 
Sadbhavana Party; and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur 
Deuba's Nepali Congress (Democratic)), who have not been 
taking part in the "joint" agitation against the King (Ref 
C), have counter-proposed their own leaders as suitable 
candidates for PM.  Although these three parties together 
account for only about 35 of the 205 MPs in the previous 
Parliament, their intransigence could prove enough to scuttle 
the consensus stipulated by the King--a prospect that some 
Palace critics say the monarch fully anticipated when he 
included them in the all-party meeting on May 30. 
 
3.  (C)  UML leader Nepal told the Charge on June 2 (by cell 
phone as he was leading a protest against the King in 
downtown Kathmandu) that he believes he may be able to 
persuade Deuba, one of the three hold-outs, to back him as a 
second choice.  Nepal was less sanguine about prospects of 
turning the pro-Palace National Democratic Party President 
Pashupati Rana, whose party had 11 MPs in the last 
Parliament, or former Deputy Prime Minister Badri Prasad 
Mandal, who heads a splinter faction of the Nepal Sadbhavana 
Party that can lay claim to only two seats in the same 
Parliament.  If the two smaller parties indeed attempt to 
block his candidacy, Nepal said, the King should be prevailed 
upon to accept the nominee with the largest backing (which 
would be, presumably, Nepal himself).  Nepal asked for the 
Embassy's support in pushing this point with the Palace.  He 
also expressed dismay at the sudden visit of a former Indian 
Ambassador to Nepal, whom Nepal clearly perceived as 
anti-UML, and hinted that the Indians might be attempting to 
block him as well.  The Charge emphasized that the USG has no 
favorite candidate for PM but is concerned that the parties 
take advantage of the King's efforts toward rapprochement. 
 
4.  (C) While some critics of the King see his inclusion of 
the three "spoiler" parties as as a sure way to obviate 
consensus, Nepali Congress President G.P. Koirala apparently 
threw his support to erstwhile rival Nepal with the clear 
stipulation that Nepal push for another certain 
deal-breaker--the reinstatement of the Parliament dissolved 
by the King one year ago.  (Note:  The King has already ruled 
out such a step, warning the parties on May 30 not to ask him 
to do anything "unconstitutional."  According to a source at 
the Supreme Court, the proposal to revive an 
already-dissolved Parliament has no constitutional basis. 
End note.)  On June 2 Nepali Congress Central Committee 
member Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat (just before leaving his home to 
participate in a rally against the King) told the Charge that 
the Nepali Congress was demanding the revival of Parliament 
as an essential element of the proposed all-party government, 
adding that his party would accept only one of the leaders of 
the two largest parties--the Nepali Congress or the UML--as 
an interim Prime Minister. 
 
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SUSPICIONS, RECRIMINATIONS ABOUND 
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5.  (C)  Another factor arguing against prospects for a 
workable consensus is the virulent mutual suspicion between 
most of the politcal parties (with the exception of the 
National Democratic Party and the Nepal Sadbhavana faction) 
and the Palace.  Some of this suspicion focuses on the 
institution of the monarchy, buttressed by the Palace 
bureaucracy, in general, which most politicians believe only 
begrudgingly ceded authority after the restoration of 
democracy in 1990.  But even greater suspicion centers on the 
perceived personal leanings of King Gyanendra in particular, 
with many politicians now alleging that he had always 
exhibited more autocratic tendenies than his late brother. 
Whether these suspicions are well-founded or not, the King's 
continued exercise of executive authority during the Chand 
government undoubtedly feeds them.  Many political leaders 
who initially supported Chand as a consensus candidate for 
interim Prime Minister last October--with the understanding 
that their parties could nominate members to his Cabinet--say 
they felt betrayed when the King subsequently appointed the 
full Cabinet on his own, claiming the parties' in-fighting 
and partisanship left him no choice.  Many have expressed 
concern that the King's seemingly magnanimous invitation to 
the parties this time may prove a similar ploy.  The King 
knows he is asking the impossible by demanding consensus of 
bitter political rivals like Deuba and Koirala (Koirala 
reportedly will not even enter a room if Deuba is there), 
they argue, and thus runs little risk of having to accept 
their choice for PM. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C) We continue to believe that the King's offer is a 
significant step toward broadening the representative base of 
government.  (We also expect the June 2 deadline to slip a 
little.)  By giving the parties two options (either 
presenting him with the name of a consensus candidate or 
suggesting several names if consensus continues to elude 
them), the King appears to be making a good-faith effort to 
reach a workable agreement.  Since the political parties have 
been clamoring for an all-party government, it seems 
small-minded--if not downright inconsistent--for them now to 
object to the King's inclusion of all seven parties in the 
process.  While we do not know the King's motives in offering 
the parties this opening, signals from the Palace indicate 
that he is attempting to respond to concerns from the 
international community.  We find it ironic that the very 
politicians who criticized the King's appointment of Chand 
the most vehemently are now devising elaborate justifications 
for their own appointment.  One does not have to hypothesize 
a nefarious royal plot to explain why there remains no 
consensus candidate for PM.  The Embassy will continue to 
urge political leaders to take advantage of this opportunity. 
BOGGS