US embassy cable - 03HARARE1081

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001081 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER 
PARIS FOR C.NEARY 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR T.PFLAUMER 
BANGKOK FOR WYN DAYTON 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCES NATIONWIDE PROTESTS WEEK 
OF JUNE 2-6; COULD BE SOONER ACCORDING TO INSIDER 
 
REF: A. HARARE 1076 
 
     B. HARARE 1058 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Peggy Blackford for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY.  The MDC officially announced that protests 
including demonstrations would begin June 2 and run 
throughout the week.  However, in contrast to the official 
MDC call for mass action next week, MDC Special Presidential 
Advisor Gandi Mudzingwa confided that the party hoped to move 
up its timetable, turn out large crowds for short 
demonstrations in the high density areas over the weekend, 
and avoid confrontations by catching the GOZ off guard.  He 
indicated that the MDC is now confident that most police and 
army are sympathetic to the MDC cause and will remain 
neutral. If the demonstrations are a success, the MDC will 
simply declare victory on Monday and will mostly limit next 
week's action to a stayaway. The MDC hopes that these actions 
will sway additional ZANU-PF loyalists to the view that a 
negotiated change is essential. So far Mudzingwa is the only 
one to suggest that action will begin before that Monday 
deadline.  Embassy observers will remain alert to reports of 
protest over the weekend but are dubious that significant 
action will take place before the announced Monday start 
date. END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (U)  In an official statement issued May 29, MDC 
President Morgan Tsvangirai cited recent political and 
economic woes, and the inability of the Mugabe government to 
deal with these.  He appealed to all Zimbabweans throughout 
the country to participate in on-going prayer meetings, and 
during the week of June 2 to June 6, to "rise up in your 
millions and take part in nationwide peaceful protest marches 
for DEMOCRACY and GOOD GOVERNANCE", and to stayaway from work 
for the week.  He emphasized MDC's commitment to non-violence 
and urged protesters to be peaceful even if provoked. 
 
3.  (C)   PolOffs met Special Presidential Advisor Gandi 
Mudzingwa later on May 29 and queried him about specific MDC 
plans.  Official announcements and conversations with other 
MDC officials including MDC president Tsvangirai reported 
reftels have implied that demonstrations would take place on 
Monday or later next week and would concentrate on the city 
center. In contrast, Mudzingwa said that the MDC was adopting 
a different strategy which it hoped would demonstrate victory 
early.  The party hopes to organize demonstrators in Harare 
to protest over the weekend rather than waiting until next 
week.  The demonstrations would take place in the high 
density areas, particularly the western suburbs, on Saturday 
and Sunday.  They would be called at the last minute and 
would be kept to perhaps a half a hour so that GOZ would have 
to scramble to react. If the police turned out in massive 
numbers in one area, the party plans to  shift the 
demonstration to another location.  This is a technique they 
used this week at prayer meetings. When the police showed up 
to prevent a crowd from gathering, MDC organizers were able 
to quickly pass the word and move the meeting to a different 
location.  If the demonstrations go well, the MDC will 
declare victory and limit activities next week in Harare to 
primarily a stayaway, though Mudzingwa did not rule out 
further demonstrations.  Outside of Harare however, protests 
are very likely to run into next week.  According to 
Mudzingwa, the objective of this mass action is to erode the 
confidence of ZANU-PF supporters and convince them that the 
status quo cannot hold.  Asked how these hit and run tactics 
would effect press coverage, Mudzingwa expressed confidence 
that they had reliable contacts in the press who would be on 
hand where needed. 
 
 
4.  (C)   On the issue of police reaction, Mudzingwa said 
that they were confident that the majority were now either 
sympathetic to the MDC position or determined to remain 
neutral if at all possible.  He was somewhat concerned about 
a few special units who have apparently received riot 
training since March or that existing unit commanders would 
be replaced by GOZ militants, possibly war veterans. 
Mudzingwa said he thought the MDC's propaganda aimed at the 
army, as well as private conversations with selected army 
officers, had worked and that the greater part of the army 
was inclined to remain neutral - though all uncertainties on 
this front had not been eliminated.  On the whole however, he 
believed that the MDC strategy would avoid confrontations by 
assembling and disbursing too quickly for the GOZ forces to 
be a problem. 
 
5.  (C)   Comment:  In theory Mudzingwa's plan sounds viable 
but it relies heavily on very good organization and 
communication, and the willingness of sympathetic police and 
local authorities to remain apolitical even if they get 
advance notice that a demonstration is imminent.  Its 
avoidance of marching/demonstrations near State House or city 
center would be less neuralgic to authorities.  The plan also 
relies on holding demonstrations in distant locales and 
spreading militant security forces too thin to respond 
effectively.  Word travels fast though, and a harsh crackdown 
in one suburb could quell peoples' willingness to take to the 
streets in others.  The MDC has a very limited track record 
of getting people to march, and it is unclear whether general 
frustration and desperation is enough to make notoriously 
patient Zimbabweans take to the streets in huge numbers. 
 
6. (C)  In light of the fact that to date Mudzingwa, though 
very well-placed in the MDC hierarchy, is the only source to 
report any action is planned before Monday, Embassy observers 
remain skeptical that any major events will take place over 
the weekend.  End Comment. 
SULLIVAN