US embassy cable - 03HARARE1069

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001069 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
BANGKOK FOR WIN DAYTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: MNANGAGWA SPEAKS ON SUCCESSION, PARTY TALKS, AND 
MASS ACTION 
 
REF: 02 HARARE 2127 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER KIMBERLY C. JEMISON FOR REASONS 1.5 C/ 
D. 
 
SUMMARY. 1. At a meeting on May 28, 2003 Speaker of 
Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa preferred to review Zimbabwe's 
history rather than offering much insight into party 
succession activities, reopening a dialogue between ZANU-PF 
and MDC leadership, and likely ZANU-PF reactions to the 
impending mass action. He did, however, suggest that party 
talks might resume if attention could be shifted from 
recognizing President Robert Mugabe as the head of state to 
addressing the flawed electoral process and the conclusion of 
the second land audit as a minimum condition for Mugabe to 
step down.  Mnangagwa also stated that GOZ would react 
peacefully to MDC demonstrations.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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LAND STILL AN ISSUE 
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2. (C) The Ambassador, visiting AF/S Director Scott DeLisi, 
and PolOff met with Speaker of the Parliament Emmerson 
Mnangagwa on May 28, 2003.  Mnangagwa spent well over half of 
the meeting reciting the history of Zimbabwe and extolling 
the necessity and success of the land reform program, 
proclaiming that, because of land redistribution, the future 
was bright for Zimbabwe.  He did admit, as he had in an 
earlier meeting (See Reftel), there were some allocation 
problems but then maligned the first land audit saying the 
same people who were guilty of taking multiple farms 
researched and wrote it.  (COMMENT: Flora Buka, Minister of 
State for Land Reform Program, supervised the first land 
audit, which was leaked to the international press.  Much of 
her information came from the Commercial Farmers Union. 
Since the report, Buka has been shut out of the party inner 
circle. END COMMENT.) He claimed that the current 
"independent" audit would be a more accurate portrayal of the 
problem and should be completed in July. 
 
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LIMITED POSSIBILITY OF RESUMING INTER-PARTY DIALOGUE 
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3. (U) When asked about resuming the dialogue between MDC and 
ZANU-PF, Mnangagwa claimed that ZANU-PF was ready to talk at 
all levels but presidential.  Talks at that level, however, 
would be contingent upon Morgan Tsvangirai recognizing Robert 
Mugabe as President.  Mnangagwa told us soon after the 
presidential elections in March 2002, the Nigerians and South 
Africans told him that MDC Secretary General Welshman Ncube 
had said the MDC took issue with the process of the election, 
maintaining that the process was flawed and should have been 
brought before the Electoral Supervisory Commission. 
Mnangagwa said that Ncube never relayed this information to 
him or ZANU-PF and that such an overture might help reopen 
the lines of communication. 
 
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AGREES ON PRINCIPLE OF PEACEFUL DEMONSTRATIONS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
4. (U) Regarding the mass action, Mnangagwa dismissed the war 
veterans, threats to break up any opposition-led 
demonstrations, characterizing it as a campaign tactic by 
Zimbabwe National Liberation War Veterans' Association head, 
Patrick Nyaruwata.  Mnangagwa maintained that it was better 
to have peaceful demonstrations now than for the people to 
have pent up frustrations, which could manifest in more 
violent ways. He agreed with the U.S. stance that 
demonstrations should be non-violent and that GOZ authorities 
should react peacefully. 
 
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LAND IS KEY TO SUCCESSION 
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5. (U) When asked whether he would elaborate on the 
succession issue beyond what has been reported in the press, 
Mnangagwa maintained that he had told the truth in the press 
and there was nothing more to add.  The Ambassador's 
subsequent attempts to elicit more information were not 
successful.  Mnangagwa would only say that the party could 
not have a new president until the land business was 
finished, thereby securing Mugabe's legacy as the champion of 
land reform.  He claimed the second land audit was the final 
step. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C) Mnangagwa's comments regarding the MDC/ZANU-PF talks 
suggest there may be a way to resume talks if the focus of 
contention moves from recognizing Mugabe as President to 
addressing the flawed electoral process.  At a cocktail 
reception on May 28, Paul Themba Nyathi, MDC MP for Gwanda 
North and party spokesman, stated that the party's early 
refusal to accept Mugabe as President was ill-conceived and 
has made it more difficult to facilitate talks between the 
two parties. 
 
7.  (C) Mnangagwa's two statements that ZANU-PF could only 
elect a new president after the land reform has been 
completed and that the second land audit is the final step, 
combined with Mugabe's recent calls for an open dialogue on 
succession suggest the "Old Man" may be willing to step down. 
 In a meeting with PolOff, Victor Chitongo, ZANU-PF MP for 
Murewa North who claims to speak with Politburo members 
regularly, also confirmed behind the scenes jockeying for 
leadership and the desire for Mugabe to conclude the land 
redistribution before he seriously considers stepping down. 
END COMMENT. 
 
 
 
SULLIVAN