US embassy cable - 96RIYADH2696

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 002696 
 
 
LONDON FOR TUELLER; PARIS FOR ALLEGRONE 
 
E.O.12958: DECL:  07/11/06 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, SA 
SUBJECT:  THE SAUDI KING: FIT TO REIGN, NOT TO RULE 
 
REF:  RIYADH 2349 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1.  (U)  CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES THEODORE 
KATTOUF: 1.5 B, D. 
 
2.  (C)  SUMMARY:  THE KING'S RECENT MEDICAL AND 
POLITICAL COMEBACK, EVIDENCED IN HIS SUSTAINED CHAIRING 
OF THE WEEKLY COUNCIL OF MINISTERS SESSIONS AND HIS 
SUBSTANTIVE ENGAGEMENTS WITH HIGH-LEVEL VISITORS, IS 
PROOF OF FAHD'S CAPACITY TO REIGN.  WHILE FRENCH AND 
BRITISH VISITORS LEFT THEIR MEETINGS WITH THE KING 
SURPRISED BY THE EXTENT OF HIS RECOVERY, THEY POINT TO 
FAHD'S REDUCED STAMINA, IMPAIRED MENTAL AGILITY, AND 
IMMOBILITY AS NATURAL LIMITS ON HIS ABILITY TO RULE IN A 
DAY-TO-DAY CAPACITY.  THE KING'S IMPROVED HEALTH 
OBVIATES ANY RETURN TO AN ABDULLAH REGENCY, BUT WILL NOT 
REVERSE THE GRADUAL ACCRETION OF AUTHORITY BY THE CROWN 
PRINCE AND MINDEF SULTAN.  END SUMMARY 
 
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THE COMEBACK KING 
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3.  (C)  DEFYING THE PREDICTIONS OF SOME WITHIN HIS 
MEDICAL ENTOURAGE, THE KING IS ENJOYING A MEDICAL AND 
POLITICAL COMEBACK.  DATING FROM HIS JUNE 8 RECEPTION OF 
OMAN'S SULTAN QABOOS, FAHD'S PUBLIC APPEARANCES HAVE 
GROWN IN NUMBER AND IN CONSEQUENCE.  MORE OFTEN THAN 
NOT, FAHD IS CHAIRING THE WEEKLY COUNCIL OF MINISTERS 
MEETING AND HIS RECEPTION OF FOREIGN V.I.P.'S HAS 
EVOLVED FROM PERFUNCTORY "DROP-BY'S" TO ENGAGEMENTS OF 
POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE.  THE KING'S LEVEL OF ACTIVITY 
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE NO IMMINENT RESUMPTION OF 
THE CROWN PRINCE'S REGENCY.  HOWEVER, RECENT WESTERN 
VISITORS HAVE DRAWN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS ABOUT 
THE KING'S MENTAL AND PHYSICAL CAPABILITIES. 
 
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RIFKIND ON FAHD: ONE TRACK MIND 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  THE BRITISH READ-OUT ON FAHD'S HEALTH, 
FOLLOWING FOREIGN MINISTER RIFKIND'S JULY 1 MEETING WITH 
THE KING (REFTEL), CLOSELY PARALLELS OUR ASSESSMENT OF 
FAHD DURING SECDEF PERRY'S JUNE 29 VISIT.  CAPABLE OF 
GOING BEYOND PROTOCOL AND OF HANDLING A FOCUSED 
SUBSTANTIVE EXCHANGE, FAHD IS NEVERTHELESS NOTICEABLY 
MORE FREQUENTLY REPETITIVE AND "LESS SHARP."  U.K. 
AMBASSADOR ANDREW GREEN RELATED TO CHARGE THAT, IN 
RESPONSE TO A QUESTION POSED BY RIFKIND, FAHD WAS UNABLE 
TO SHIFT GEARS AND ADDRESS A TOPIC UNRELATED TO HIS 
PRIMARY AGENDA.  IN THE AWKWARD PAUSE WHICH ENSUED, THE 
DELEGATION WAS QUICKLY SUMMONED TO A DINNER HOSTED BY 
FOREIGN MINISTER SAUD AL-FAYSAL.  THE KING APPEARED TO 
THE BRITISH OBSERVERS TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD PHYSICAL 
CONDITION, ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. 
 
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FRENCH TAKE: MENTALLY ENGAGED, PHYSICALLY DIMINISHED 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
5.  (C)  ACCORDING TO FRENCH EMBASSY COUNSELOR PAUL 
ORTHOLAN, CHIRAC AND HIS DELEGATION WERE SURPRISED BY 
THE KING'S LEVEL OF PARTICIPATION THROUGHOUT THE JULY 
6-8 VISIT.  FAHD WAS PRESENT AT THE AIRPORT, STANDING ON 
THE TARMAC IN THE STIFLING JEDDAH HEAT AS CHIRAC'S PLANE 
LANDED.  WHILE THE ARRIVAL CEREMONY WAS TRUNCATED (E.G., 
NO NATIONAL ANTHEMS) IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE KING'S TIME 
ON HIS FEET AND HIS EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT, FAHD DROVE 
WITH CHIRAC TO THE GUEST PALACE AND LATER IN THE EVENING 
HOSTED A DINNER, FOLLOWED BY A 90 MINUTE BILATERAL WHICH 
INCLUDED A 15 MINUTE TETE-A-TETE BETWEEN FAHD AND THE 
FRENCH PRESIDENT.  AT THE CONCLUSION OF CHIRAC'S VISIT, 
FAHD DROVE WITH CHIRAC TO THE AIRPORT AND SAW HIM OFF. 
 
6.  (C)  WHILE THE KING REPEATED HIMSELF FREQUENTLY IN 
HIS DINNER AND BILATERAL DISCUSSIONS, CHIRAC AND HIS 
PARTY VIEWED THIS MORE AS AN ARAB MANNERISM, THAN A 
MANIFESTATION OF HIS NOVEMBER 1995 STROKE.  ORTHALON 
NOTED THAT THE EXCHANGES FOCUSED ON THE PEACE PROCESS, 
WITH LONG KINGLY DIGRESSIONS INTO PRIOR SAG INITIATIVES 
TO PROMOTE PEACE IN THE REGION, BUT THAT WITHIN THIS 
CONVERSATIONAL ORBIT, FAHD WAS FULLY ABREAST OF THE 
CAIRO SUMMIT, THE G-7 LYON STATEMENT, AND THE EU 
FLORENCE COMMUNIQUE.  ON THE WHOLE, ORTHALON REPORTED, 
KING FAHD APPEARED IN BETTER MENTAL SHAPE THAN THEY HAD 
BEEN LED TO BELIEVE. 
 
7.  (C)  HOWEVER, ORTHALON EMPHASIZED, CHIRAC WAS STRUCK 
BY THE KING'S PHYSICAL DETERIORATION.  (NOTE: CHIRAC IS 
THE FIRST WESTERN OBSERVER TO HAVE VIEWED THE KING IN 
ACTION OVER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME.  TYPICALLY THE 
KING HAS GREETED VISITORS STANDING IN A RECEPTION HALL, 
BUT HAS NOT BEEN SEEN OR TELEVISED WALKING.)  FAHD 
APPEARED TO BE ALMOST CRIPPLED, ORTHALON REPORTED, AND 
WALKED WITH "TREMENDOUS" DIFFICULTY, HUNCHED OVER, USING 
A CANE, AND SUPPORTED ON EITHER SIDE BY AN AIDE.  AT THE 
END OF THE DINNER, FAHD REQUIRED ASSISTANCE IN STANDING 
UP.  FOLLOWING THE 90 MINUTE BILATERAL, THE KING WAS 
UNABLE TO RISE AND CHIRAC LENT A HAND IN ASSISTING FAHD 
TO A WHEELCHAIR.  THE FRENCH DELEGATION DID NOT KNOW 
WHAT TO MAKE OF FAHD'S DARK SUNGLASSES, WHICH HE WORE 
THROUGHOUT THE DINNER AND SUBSEQUENT MEETING. 
 
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COMMENT: A REIGNING MONARCH 
--------------------------- 
 
8.  (C)  FAHD'S APPARENT RECOVERY IS SUFFICIENT TO QUELL 
DOUBTS AS TO HIS ABILITY TO REIGN.  HIS CAPACITY TO 
RULE, HOWEVER, APPEARS TRUNCATED.  REDUCED STAMINA, 
IMPAIRED MENTAL AGILITY, AND IMMOBILITY WILL DELIMIT 
FAHD'S INVOLVEMENT IN THE DAY-TO-DAY AFFAIRS OF STATE. 
THUS, WHILE THE KING APPEARS TO HAVE RECOVERED 
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM HIS STROKE LAST NOVEMBER, IT IS ALSO 
CLEARQ, HE QIKELY TO COMPLETELY REGAIN HIS 
EARLIER FORM EITHER MENTALLY OR PHYSICALLY. 
CONSEQUENTLY, WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE CROWN PRINCE AND 
MINDEF SULTAN WILL CONTINUE TO FILL THE WIDE GAPS LEFT 
BY THE KING'S REDUCED ABILITY TO MANAGE SAUDI DECISION- 
MAKING. 
 
 
KATTOUF