US embassy cable - 03HARARE1058

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001058 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC PLANS FOR JUNE 2 MASS ACTION 
 
REF: HARARE 925 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
1. (C) On May 27 MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai briefed G8 
mission representatives on the MDC's position vis-a-vis 
various current issues, including plans for mass action. 
Other G8 representatives present objected to demonstrations 
in lieu of a stayaway because of the potential for violence. 
Violence is possible in any case if the MDC does not soon 
channel people's frustration in a politically positive way. 
Shortages of food, petrol, and most recently, cash, could 
result in spontaneous riots and lead the country into 
dangerous and uncharted territory.  On May 28, Tsvangirai 
confirmed to visiting AF/S Director and the Ambassador that 
mass action would likely begin on June 2, although the MDC 
will only decide this definitively later this week.  End 
Summary. 
 
Tsvangirai Briefs G8 Representatives 
 
SIPDIS 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) On May 27 MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai briefed G8 
mission representatives on the MDC's position vis-a-vis 
various current issues should discussions about Zimbabwe 
arise during the June 1-3 G8 summit in Evian, France.  In a 
prepared statement, Tsvangirai discussed the state of the 
crisis and Zimbabweans' desperation, the stalled mediation 
effort by Mbeki and Muluzi, legitimacy and a dignified exit, 
succession, and what the MDC sees as the way forward.  Also 
present were MDC Secretary General Welshman Ncube, MDC 
National Chairman Isaac Matongo, MDC Secretary for 
International Affairs Sekai Holland, and MDC Special 
Presidential Advisor Gandi Mudzingwa.  All G8 countries were 
represented except the U.K. 
 
Mass Action 
----------- 
 
3. (C) On mass action, Tsvangirai said they were damned if 
they do and damned if they don't, i.e. MDC supporters were 
demanding action and leadership, but security forces might 
respond with violence.  Tsvangirai said that the start date 
and form of mass action might be decided on May 29; he 
discounted the press reported June 2 start date, and other 
reported details as speculative.  He said the press had 
misinterpreted "final push" to mean the object was to oust 
Mugabe from power, when in fact the MDC meant "final push" to 
force Mugabe to the negotiating table to initiate a process 
leading to fresh elections.  Tsvangirai suggested that there 
might be peaceful protests, or "democracy marches" in a 
managed effort to pressure Mugabe to come to the table, but 
the MDC does not plan a massive march on State House to oust 
him from power. 
 
G8 Representatives Caution Against Marches 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) Other G8 representatives objected to the use of mass 
action in any form except a stayaway at this juncture on the 
grounds that marches could get violently out of control and 
ruin what hope there is for dialogue, and the Mbeki/Muluzi 
mediation effort.  Welshman Ncube responded that continually 
trying to restart dialogue and doing nothing else was not an 
option; it would bolster the GOZ's confidence and essentially 
had achieved nothing since talks failed in May 2002. 
 
5. (C) Tsvangirai and other officials have spoken at MDC 
rallies in all of Zimbabwe's major cities in the past three 
weeks exhorting Zimbabweans to heed the call to mass action. 
Sub-national MDC structures have announced several smaller 
community meetings, and prayer vigils over the next several 
days.  Though it is sometimes difficult to determine exactly 
what the MDC plans to do and when, it appears the plan is to 
start with smaller scale meetings and transition into a 
general mass action of some type next week. 
 
Mediation Efforts Stalled 
------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Tsvangirai reported that the Mbeki/Muluzi initiative 
was stalled.  In separate conversations MDC Presidential 
Advisor, Gandi Mudzingwa, said that a planned visit to Harare 
by the two presidents had been delayed indefinitely by GOZ 
machinations.  Mudzingwa also reported that Bishops from 
Manicaland were joining forces with the Capetown Anglican 
Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, due to visit Harare again in 
the end of May, to facilitate a mediation effort.  In a 
meeting with several Bishops on May 22, ZANU-PF Spokesman 
Nathan Shamuyarira said the GOZ would prefer an internal 
mediation effort over the Mbeki/Muluzi one.  Mudzingwa said 
the MDC leadership felt Mugabe was trying to play one 
initiative off of the other and Mugabe has not yet approached 
either one sincerely. 
 
Tsvangirai Reveals More 
 
SIPDIS 
----------------------- 
 
7. (C) At a May 28 breakfast meeting with the Ambassador and 
AF/S Director DeLisi, Tsvangirai at first refused to be 
pinned down about exactly when the mass action would begin, 
but privately to the Ambassador he acknowledged that June 2 
was a realistic start date.  Tsvangirai dismissed speculation 
that the MDC would make the call for action during the day 
with people already in central Harare, and instead suggested 
that demonstrations were planned to take place in the 
outlying high-density areas.  Tsvangirai expressed some 
concern about violence, but believed he could keep things 
under control on his side.  Tsvangirai took some, but not 
total, comfort from being allowed to hold recent rallies and 
from Interior Minister Mohadi's statement that peaceful 
demonstrations would not be prevented.  He dismissed war 
veterans threats to prevent marches saying the veterans were 
too old and would be no match for MDC youth.  Although war 
veteran leaders have made recent press statements threatening 
violence against MDC marchers, in a separate conversation 
even Emmerson Mnangagwa, Speaker of Parliament, dismissed 
these as hollow. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
8. (C) It appears the MDC finds itself between a rock and a 
hard place.  Their membership, and most Zimbabweans, reach 
new levels of frustration and desperation daily and are 
demanding the MDC leadership do something.  The leadership is 
still unsure how the Zimbabwe Defense Forces (ZDF) will 
react, and seems constantly unsure if they have prepared and 
lobbied enough.  Some in civil society doubt that the public 
is prepared to take risks to demonstrate and even the 
friendly "Daily News" has raised question.  The MDC 
leadership appears to be purposefully suggesting various 
start dates and mass action plans as a way to obfuscate an 
organized GOZ response.  While there are huge risks to 
organizing general protests that may fizzle or turn 
uncontrollably violent, if the MDC does not soon guide 
people's frustration in a politically positive way, 
spontaneous riots over food, fuel or cash, could erupt. 
Moreover, ZANU-PF is playing this crisis as if it had all the 
time in the world and believes the leadership issue an 
internal ZANU-PF matter.  End Comment. 
SULLIVAN