US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA1357

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001357 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, GT 
SUBJECT: FRG NOMINATES RIOS MONTT FOR PRESIDENT 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 1172 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  The ruling Guatemalan Republican Front 
(FRG) nominated its founding leader, Efrain Rios Montt, for 
President; former Agriculture Minister Edin Barrientos for 
Vice President; and corrupt former Minister of Public Works 
Luis Rabbe was nominated for Mayor of Guatemala City by a 
party conclave on May 24.  The selection of Rios Montt does 
not ultimately resolve the issue of whether he will be the 
FRG standard-bearer, as constitutional challenges are 
expected to emerge once the FRG registers his candidacy with 
the Supreme Electoral Tribunal.  For the moment, however, 
Rios Montt's candidacy could help unify a fragmented 
opposition.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) At a party assembly on May 24, the ruling FRG 
nominated retired General and former de facto head of state 
Efrain Rios Montt for President, and Edin Barrientos for Vice 
President.  Party leaders announced that they will decide by 
the end of May when they will officially register their 
candidate with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).  The NGO 
Center for the Defense of the Constitution (CEDECON) has 
already announced that it will challenge the 
constitutionality of Rios Montt's eligibility to run for 
President, in the event the TSE allows him to register.  The 
Constitutional Court ruled against Rios Montt's presidential 
candidacy in 1990, based on Constitutional Article 186 (a), 
which prohibits candidates who attained power through 
extra-constitutional means from eligibility to run for 
president.  The composition of the Constitutional Court has 
changed, however, and under Guatemalan law, decisions of the 
Constitutional Court are not binding on future decisions. 
Rios Montt has assembled a "dream team" of constitutional 
lawyers, including former Foreign Minister Gabriel Orellana, 
to argue his case.  They will argue that the constitutional 
principle of non-retroactivity should be applied to this 
case, since the Constitution took effect in 1985, after Rios 
Montt had been installed by coup d'etat and served as head of 
government in 1982-83. 
 
3.  (SBU) Edin Barrientos, Rios Montt's running-mate, had 
served as Agriculture Minister and previously worked as a 
consultant to USAID.  The FRG gave prominent billing at its 
assembly to Luis Rabbe, the FRG candidate for Mayor of 
Guatemala City.  Rabbe has been the subject of numerous 
lawsuits for his mishandling of state funds while he was 
Minister of Public Works. 
 
4.  (U) A Prensa Libre-commissioned political opinion poll 
published May 27 put GANA coalition presidential nominee 
Oscar Berger in front of voter preferences with 39%, followed 
by Alvaro Colom of the National Unity of Hope Party (UNE) at 
9% and Rios Montt at only 4%;  33%  of the 1,200 people 
polled nationwide were undecided and 7% said they would not 
vote for anyone.  The poll was also reported that widespread 
confusion over Berger's abandonment of the National 
Advancement Party (PAN); 32% believe that Berger is still the 
PAN candidate, and the PAN ranked as the highest chance of 
winning the elections, with 39%.  (Note:  Berger left the PAN 
after differences with party secretary Leonel Lopez Rodas on 
May 1 (RefTel).  He now heads the GANA coalition comprised of 
the Patriotic Party (PP), the Reform Movement (MR), and the 
National Solidarity Party (PSN). End Note.) 
 
Comment 
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5.  (SBU) The FRG's affirmation of Rios Montt as its 
presidential standard-bearer sets the stage for the General 
to face constitutional challenges head-on in the five months 
remaining before the elections.  It shifts the political 
focus to the Constitutional Court, which is expected to rule 
on his candidacy by the end of June.  If challenges are 
raised and the court rules in Rios Montt's favor, he will be 
free to run.  The selection of Barrientos for the vice 
presidency helps balance (i.e. improve) the FRG's image with 
the electorate, but FRG insiders tell us that Barrientos is 
not viewed as a possible substitute for Rios Montt.  The more 
revealing move, in our view, was the FRG's selection of 
notoriously corrupt former Public Works Minister Luis Rabbe 
for Mayor. 
 
6.  (SBU) The recent poll, commissioned and executed by 
anti-government media, is consistent with previous polls 
showing the FRG and Rios Montt as also-rans, though we would 
warn that polls are often misleading in Guatemala.  Berger 
cannot be too sanguine about his lead, however, as the polls 
also reflect his precipitous drop since entering the race as 
the presumptive PAN candidate in October, 2002.  (Note:  In 
1999, Berger also entered the race the favorite, left the PAN 
and then returned, and lost in a landslide to the FRG's 
Portillo.  End Note.)  Nevertheless, Berger will benefit from 
the FRG's nomination of Rios Montt, which is likely to 
polarize the presidential race between FRG and anti-FRG 
forces.  Berger is attempting to broaden his coalition by 
courting the Left, and Rios Montt's long-awaited decision to 
run may lead some to overcome their scruples and join with 
Berger in the hopes that unifying the opposition is the only 
way to defeat Rios Montt. 
HAMILTON