US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO859

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000859 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  05-22-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, CE, Political Parties, KWMM 
SUBJECT:  In move that could have big impact, accord 
between radical JVP and president's party seems imminent 
 
Refs:  Colombo 851, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons:  1.5 (B, D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The radical JVP and President 
Kumaratunga's party seem set to ink a MOU very soon. 
Due to differences, the two sides have reportedly agreed 
to be vague on peace process issues.  If the accord is 
indeed concluded, it could impact the peace process, 
with Tamils complaining that it is effectively an 
alliance of Sinhalese chauvinists.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) CLOSING IN ON AN ACCORD:  The radical Janantha 
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party and President 
Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) seem very 
close to inking a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) 
formally allying the parties.  (Note:  The SLFP is the 
key constituent element of the Opposition People's 
Alliance, "PA," political grouping, which includes 
various parties and is led by the president.  The PA had 
a formal alliance with the JVP in September 2001 that 
later lapsed.  The SLFP is taking the lead with the 
accord now because several small leftist parties in the 
PA no longer want to work with the JVP.  End Note.)  It 
is unclear exactly as to when the accord might be 
signed, but some contacts have told us that it could 
happen as early as next week or by mid-June.  Jeyaraj 
Fernandopoulle, a PA/SLFP MP, told us that he thought it 
would be signed "sooner rather than later." 
Fernandopoulle said Kumaratunga is still reviewing the 
draft MOU, which was prepared by SLFP and JVP teams, who 
have been negotiating its terms for months (see 
Reftels).  He had heard the president was "pleased" with 
the draft MOU and planned to have it approved by the 
SLFP's governing committee soon.  After that, it would 
become official when signed by the SLFP and JVP party 
secretaries. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
3.  (C) BASICALLY AN ELECTORAL PACT:  With respect to 
substance, the accord, from what we hear, is basically 
an electoral pact coupled with a statement of joint 
principles.  (Note:  Amazingly for Sri Lanka's 
notoriously porous political environment, a draft text 
of the accord has not leaked out as of yet.) 
Fernandopoulle told us that the draft was quite 
elaborate as to where each party would run its 
candidates for Parliament, so that they would unite 
their combined vote and not divide it.  (Note:  In the 
December 2001 national election, the PA and JVP received 
almost as many votes as the United National Party.  They 
were not allied at the time and lost, and now feel that 
a pact will prevent a similar splitting of their vote.) 
When asked whether the apparently near-term announcement 
of the alliance signaled that the president might want 
to call new elections, Harim Peiris, the president's 
spokesman, said he did not think that she was of a mind 
to do so soon.  That said, he thought she might in the 
future if she felt the GSL was growing increasingly 
unpopular. 
 
4.  (C) VAGUE ON PEACE PROCESS:  Confirming press 
reports, contacts have told us that the MOU will 
probably be quite vague as to peace process issues. 
Peiris told us that the document would mention support 
for the process and for a negotiated settlement of the 
dispute in a general way.  Noting the long-standing 
differences between the two sides, however, 
Fernandopoulle related that he understood the draft 
would barely mention the terms "devolution" and 
"federalism" as ways to solve the ethnic conflict. 
(Note:  The president and the PA/SLFP are basically open 
to solutions involving devolution and federalism.  It is 
only a slight overstatement to say that the JVP is 
violently opposed.)  Fernandopoulle said the MOU would 
be more concrete regarding economic issues, with the two 
sides united in criticism of the GSL's reform plans. 
5.  (C) TAMIL CONCERNS:  Tamils seem very worried about 
the potential pact.  Gajendran Ponnambalam, a Tamil 
National Alliance MP, told us that he thought the 
proposed accord would not be good for the peace process 
because it represented an alliance of "Sinhalese 
chauvinists."  (Note:  The JVP is a chauvinist party 
without much doubt.  Most SLFP MPs and the president are 
relatively moderate on peace process issues, though 
there is a minority in the party that makes anti-peace 
process, pro-Sinhalese statements.)  When asked about 
the reaction of the Tamil Tigers to the possible 
SLFP/JVP pact, Ponnambalam said he did not think the 
group would react in an aggressive way.  The Tigers, 
however, would make it clear that they were not happy. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  If the accord is indeed concluded, it 
will probably spark plenty of political reverberations. 
The most important impact would probably be the 
potentially negative reaction of the Tigers and other 
Tamils, who will consider the president's close links 
with the JVP a threat to the long-term viability of the 
peace process.  Another probable impact will be that 
felt by the GSL, which only holds a slim majority in 
Parliament and may feel vulnerable to a newly combined 
opposition.  END COMMENT. 
 
7.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS