US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO829

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000829 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, S/CT, INR/NESA 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  05-19-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINR, EAID, CE, NO, JA, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Norwegians continue effort to engage Tigers, 
as GSL urges that Tokyo conference proceed as planned 
 
Refs:  Colombo 824, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador E. Ashley Wills: 
Reasons:  1.5 (B, D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In the latest effort to get the peace 
process on track, GoN Deputy Foreign Minister Helgesen 
met with the Tigers, May 17.  Helgesen told us that he 
urged the Tigers to attend the Tokyo donors conference. 
In response, the Tigers agreed to review Norwegian 
proposals re assistance issues and respond within the 
next several days.  Helgesen said he would call the 
Deputy Secretary to brief him on the situation, May 22 
or 23.  Re Tokyo, with the Japanese worried about the 
issue, the GSL wants the conference to go forward as 
planned regardless of whether the Tigers participate. 
Given that the Tigers are showing little sign of give so 
far, the question of whether Tokyo should go forward is 
under increasing scrutiny.  Mission will provide its 
recommendation regarding Tokyo by Wednesday, May 21. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Norwegians continue Efforts with Tigers 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar Helgesen 
met with Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 
officials led by political chief S.P. Thamilchelvam on 
May 17.  The meeting took place in the LTTE-controlled 
town of Kilinochchi.  (Note:  The May 17 meeting served 
as a follow-up to Foreign Minister Petersen's and 
Japanese Special Envoy Akashi's recent meetings with the 
LTTE.  All of these meetings were part of the general 
diplomatic effort to convince the LTTE to return to the 
peace talks and attend the June donors conference in 
Tokyo -- see Reftels.) 
 
3.  (C) At a May 19 lunch held before he left Colombo, 
Helgesen told the Ambassador that he had urged the 
Tigers to reconsider their recent decision not to 
participate in the June donors conference in Tokyo.  In 
doing this, Helgesen said he reviewed with the LTTE a 
series of Norwegian-crafted proposals meant to meet the 
group's concerns that an appropriate amount of 
humanitarian and developmental assistance be funneled to 
the north and east.  (Note:  The Tigers have expressed 
concerns that much of the assistance would ultimately 
wind up in the south unless strict controls were put in 
place.)  The Norwegian side stressed to the Tigers that 
additional details on how the aid would be distributed 
and the form of the structure controlling it would have 
to be worked out later in consultation with the GSL and 
the donor community.  In their response, Helgesen 
commented that the Tigers reiterated their demands that 
some sort of long-term assistance-disbursing structure 
be set up soon and that the LTTE have an important say 
as to how the assistance is allocated.  The Tigers, 
however, agreed to review the Norwegian proposals and 
respond within the next several days.  Helgesen said he 
planned to telephone Deputy Secretary Armitage on May 22 
or 23 to review the situation. 
 
4.  (C) When queried by the Ambassador, Helgesen said he 
"maintained hope" that the Tigers would eventually come 
to Tokyo.  He noted that he understood Japanese 
government anxiety over whether or not the conference 
was going forward, given that they were the hosts and 
had to set up the event.  The GoJ seemed to be in a 
panic mode, however, which was not the best position to 
be in when reviewing next steps.  If the Tigers decided 
not to go to Tokyo, Helgesen said the GoN's preference 
would probably be to postpone the conference 
indefinitely.  If that happened, the Norwegian 
facilitation effort would focus on trying to restart the 
peace talks.  A key part of any such effort, Helgesen 
noted, would be to improve the level of trust shared by 
the LTTE and the government, which was now at its lowest 
point since the kickoff of the peace process. 
 
5.  (C) Regarding his recent interactions with the Tiger 
leadership, Helgesen had some interesting comments.  He 
said it was becoming quite clear to the GoN that the 
military, hard-line camp within the Tigers was having an 
increasing influence on LTTE strategy.  Such hard-line 
officials as Sea Tiger leader Soosai, and military 
commanders Karuna and Banu were becoming more active on 
policy issues and as advisers to LTTE leader 
Prabhakaran.  Helgesen said it was not that longtime 
LTTE negotiator Anton Balasingham had been sidelined, 
but it seemed that his relatively moderate voice was no 
longer the only one that was influencing Prabhakaran. 
Asked about Prabhakaran himself, Helgesen said he had 
met the Tiger leader three times thus far and had come 
away with the impression that he (Prabhakaran) was 
acting the part of a "politician."  As mentioned, 
however, Prabhakaran seemed to be more under the 
influence of hard-line advisers at this point than he 
had in the past.  Nonetheless, Prabhakaran still seemed 
committed to the peace track, Helgesen remarked. 
 
6.  (C) (((Note:  Further re LTTE in-house machinations, 
both Norwegian and GSL contacts have told us that they 
wonder whether Balasingham's recent departure from Sri 
Lanka back to his London home was really due to health 
problems or was more politically inspired.  These 
contacts assert that Balasingham may have left Sri Lanka 
because Prabhakaran was using his hard-line advisers 
more and did not need Balasingham as much.  In any case, 
contacts have told us that a lot of "gamesmanship" seems 
to be taking place within LTTE circles at this time.))) 
 
----------------------------- 
GSL wants Tokyo to go Forward 
----------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) In several conversations with the Ambassador 
over the May 17-18 weekend, key Sri Lankan Minister 
Milinda Moragoda stressed that the government wants the 
Tokyo donors conference to go forward no matter what the 
LTTE does.  Moragoda was quite emphatic on this point, 
stressing that if the conference is postponed the 
government could come under significant criticism in the 
south.  He said he had heard indications that the 
Japanese government might be planning to postpone the 
conference if the LTTE did not change its mind soon.  He 
urged the U.S. to use its influence on Tokyo to stay the 
course.  The Ambassador replied that the decision to go 
forward with the conference was primarily a Japanese 
decision since they were the hosts.  The U.S. was 
carefully monitoring the situation and had not yet taken 
a position on the issue.  There seemed to be good 
reasons both for the conference to take place as planned 
and for postponing it if the Tigers were not there.  The 
Ambassador noted that it was a difficult matter and, in 
making any recommendation to the Japanese, the U.S. 
would take GSL views into account. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Japanese set to wait several days 
--------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Re Tokyo, Japanese Ambassador Otsuka told the 
Ambassador May 19 that his government was not rushing to 
a decision re postponing the conference, but had decided 
to await word as to the results of the latest Norwegian 
facilitation effort.  Information regarding the Tigers' 
response to Norway should be out by the end of the week 
and the Japanese would abstain from taking a decision re 
the conference until that time, he said. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (C) With the Tigers showing little sign of give so 
far, the question of whether Tokyo should go forward is 
under increasing scrutiny.  Based on today's meeting 
with Helgesen, the Norwegians do not seem to believe 
that it will be too big a deal if Tokyo is postponed. 
Moragoda, however, clearly does.  In the meantime, the 
Japanese -- who have raised the concerns of the 
Norwegians and the GSL through their panicky behavior -- 
seem to have calmed down somewhat and are now prepared 
to wait-and-see.  (Note:  We are receiving increasing 
reports that the Norwegians and the Japanese are not 
getting along, which is no doubt not helping matters. 
The Norwegians seem to perceive the Japanese as being 
clumsy, inflexible, and secretive.)  Mission is 
carefully reviewing this whole issue and will provide 
Washington its recommendation on how the USG should 
proceed re Tokyo in the next day or so.  (Note:  We have 
received late word that the Norwegians are tentatively 
planning a meeting of key local ambassadors early May 20 
to discuss what to do about Tokyo.)  END COMMENT. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS