US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA1281

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001281 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, GT 
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ELECTIONS CONVOKED FOR NOVEMBER 9 
 
 
1.  The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) officially announced 
on May 15 the convocation of elections for President, all 158 
seats in Guatemala's unicameral Congress and mayors and city 
council members to take place on November 9, 2003.  If no 
candidate for President receives more than 50% of the vote, a 
second round of elections (only for President) will be held 
on December 28.  The convocation by the TSE officially begins 
the electoral campaign, though "unofficial" campaigning has 
been going on for several months.  Parties can now officially 
register their candidates, and it is expected that the major 
parties will name their candidates within the next few weeks. 
 The ruling Frente Republicano Guatemalteco (FRG) is 
scheduled to hold its national assembly on May 24, at which 
it will nominate its candidate.  The GANA coalition is 
backing the presidential candidacy of Oscar Berger, but is 
still considering its slate for legislators and local 
government positions.  The left-of-center UNE (which garnered 
20% of the vote in the 1999 elections) will again register 
Alvaro Colom as its candidate, and the small Democracia 
Cristiana (DC) is supporting Ricardo Bueso for President. 
The Partido de Avanzada Nacional (PAN) recently split and has 
not yet identified a presidential candidate. 
 
2.  A legal controversy over the make-up of the TSE remains 
unresolved.  When the current members of the TSE were 
sworn-in in 2002, one of the permanent members did not accept 
the position.  He was replaced by an alternate, but Congress 
failed to elect a new permanent member as some contend the 
law demands.  On May 14 the Constitutional Court instructed 
Congress to elect a permanent member by May 15.  A vote was 
held in Congress on possible replacements, but none of the 
candidates received the required two thirds majority. 
Representatives of three of the major political parties told 
reporters that they do not believe this impasse should have 
any bearing on the legitimacy of the elections, but 
constitutional lawyers argue that the current composition of 
the TSE exposes the entire electoral process to future 
litigation and possibly annulment by the Constitutional 
Court.  Congress will hold a special session in July to try 
once again to replace the missing permanent member of the TSE. 
 
3.  Comment: The opening of the electoral race will distract 
the government, the political parties and many elements of 
civil society from other urgent tasks of governing and 
legislating during the next few months.  Polls have not been 
published since the recent break-up of the PAN, and it is not 
clear which potential candidates have the best chance of 
making it into the second round.  The biggest unknown remains 
the question of whether Rios Montt will be named the 
candidate of the FRG, and how the courts would deal with his 
candidacy.  There is a growing move among some of the 
opposition parties to unite in order to better confront the 
FRG.  Should former General Rios Montt decide to run, it is 
expected that the momentum to unite the opposition will grow. 
HAMILTON