US embassy cable - 03ROME2151

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 002151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF BLOSSOM PERRY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2013 
TAGS: ER, ET, PREL, ET, PREL, UNSCER, UNSC 
SUBJECT: EAST AFRICA: NIO HOUDEK'S DISCUSSIONS WITH ITALIAN 
MFA OFFICIALS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POL MC TOM COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
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PAGE 02        ROME  02151  01 OF 02  160730Z 
1. (C) SUMMARY: IN MAY 9 CONSULTATIONS IN ROME, NATIONAL 
INTELLIGENCE OFFICER (NIO) FOR AFRICA AMB. ROBERT HOUDEK 
FOUND A BROAD IDENTITY OF VIEWS WITH ITALIAN MFA DIRECTOR 
GENERAL FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA AMB. BRUNO CABRAS AND EAST 
AFRICA OFFICE DIRECTOR PAOLA IMPERIALE.  CABRAS AGREED WITH 
HOUDEK THAT ETHIOPIA WOULD LIKELY ACCEPT THE BORDER 
DEMARCATION IN THE END, BUT EMPHASIZED THE NEED FOR THE 
GREATEST POSSIBLE COORDINATION BETWEEN THE US AND EU TO 
ENSURE THIS HAPPENED.  THEY AGREED IN THEIR ANALYSIS OF THE 
ISSUES THAT PRES. ISAIAS WOULD FACE ONCE THE BORDER ISSUE WAS 
FINALLY RESOLVED.  AMB.  HOUDEK SAID THAT THE USG PAYS CLOSE 
ATTENTION TO SOMALIA AS A TRANSIT POINT FOR TERRORISTS, BUT 
ARGUED THAT AL-QAEDA IS MORE INTERESTED IN KENYA, WHICH 
PROVIDES MORE OF THE MODERN INFRASTRUCTURE USEFUL FOR ITS 
OPERATIONS.  CABRAS ARGUED FOR MORE FUNDING OF PUBLIC 
SERVICES IN SOMALIA, AS A MEANS OF PREVENTING AN ENTIRE 
GENERATION FROM TURNING TO ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM.  HOUDEK 
COUNTERED THAT PROVIDING MORE RESOURCES MIGHT BE 
COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE, GIVING THE COMPETING FACTIONS SOMETHING 
TO FIGHT OVER RATHER THAN A REASON TO COMPROMISE WITH EACH 
OTHER IN FORMING AN INDIGENOUS GOVERNMENT.  END SUMMARY 
 
2. (C) EMBASSY ROME DEEPLY APPRECIATES EFFORTS OF NATIONAL 
INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL, STATE/AF AND OF COURSE AMB. ROBERT 
HOUDEK TO ARRANGE HIS STOP IN ROME.  HIS CONSULTATIONS WITH 
THE MFA'S EAST AFRICA EXPERTS (DESCRIBED IN THIS CABLE) 
RESPONDED EFFECTIVELY TO A LONG-STANDING REQUEST OF THE MFA 
FOR AN EXCHANGE OF VIEWS ON LONG-TERM ISSUES.  HIS EXCHANGES 
WITH OTHER MFA AFRICA EXPERTS, AND WITH OTHER GOI SENIOR 
ANALYSTS, WERE NOT ONLY FASCINATING FOR US TO LISTEN TO, THEY 
ALSO DEMONSTRATED OUR INTENT TO KEEP UP CLOSE CONSULTATIONS 
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PAGE 03        ROME  02151  01 OF 02  160730Z 
AS ITALY PREPARES TO ASSUME THE PRESIDENCY OF THE EUROPEAN 
UNION (JULY 1).  AGAIN, OUR SINCERE THANKS! 
 
ERITREA/ETHIOPIA BORDER DISPUTE 
 
3. (C) CABRAS BEGAN BY ASKING AMBASSADOR HOUDEK WHETHER HE 
THOUGHT THE THREAT TO ETHIOPIAN PM MELES' LEADERSHIP FROM 
ACCEPTING THE EEBC'S VERDICT WAS REAL OR EXAGGERATED. HOUDEK 
RESPONDED THAT MELES IS SMART AND EXAGGERATES THE THREAT TO 
HIM IN ORDER TO FIND OUT IF THE US AND EUROPE WILL FIND A WAY 
TO HELP HIM ON BADME RATHER THAN RISK "LOSING" HIM.  HE HAS 
THUS FAR MANIPULATED THE BORDER ISSUE TO WITHSTAND CHALLENGES 
TO HIS LEADERSHIP FROM HIS TIGRAYAN BASE.  HIS DELAYING 
TACTICS HAVE DEMONSTRATED DOMESTICALLY THAT HE DID ALL HE 
COULD TO REVERSE THE DECISION. IN HIS GUT, HE KNOWS HE WILL 
ULTIMATELY HAVE TO RESPECT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S 
INSISTENCE THAT ETHIOPIA ACCEPT THE VERDICT.  HOUDEK ALSO 
NOTED THAT MELES KNOWS THAT RENEWING THE WAR WOULD BE 
SUICIDAL TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.  HOUDEK ASSESSED THAT THE 
WEST CAN BE SYMPATHETIC TO MELES' DIFFICULT SITUATION, BUT 
MUST BE FIRM AND UNITED IN INSISTING ON IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 
BORDER DEMARCATION. 
 
4. (C) CABRAS AGREED WITH HOUDEK'S ANALYSIS OF MELES' 
MOTIVATIONS AND CONSTRAINTS. ETHIOPIA IS PLAYING ON THE 
TENDENCY OF WESTERN COUNTRIES TO LOOK FOR A MORE AGREEABLE 
SOLUTION TO ACCOMMODATE BOTH PARTIES.  HOWEVER, SUCH ACTION 
WOULD NOT ONLY UNDERMINE INTERNATIONAL LAW, BUT ALSO SET A 
NEGATIVE PRECEDENT FOR FUTURE BORDER DISPUTE NEGOTIATIONS. 
THE EU HAD ALREADY REMINDED BOTH LEADERS OF THEIR AGREEMENT 
TO BE BOUND BY THE ARBITRATION; IT WAS IMPORTANT THAT THE EU 
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AND US STICK CLOSELY TOGETHER.  HOUDEK AGREED AND NOTED THAT 
ONCE MELES HAS ACCEPTED AND IMPLEMENTED THE VERDICT, THE U.S. 
AND THE EU MIGHT EASE THE EFFECTS OF THE DECISION FOR 
ETHIOPIA (E.G., WITH FUNDING OF RESETTLEMENT OF FAMILIES AND 
REPLACEMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE.) 
 
5. (C) CABRAS ASKED HOW THE RESOLUTION OF THE BORDER DISPUTE 
WOULD AFFECT  ISAIAS' DOMESTIC POSITION.  HOUDEK RESPONDED 
THAT IT WOULD THROW ISAIAS BACK INTO THE "BOILING POT OF 
DOMESTIC POLITICS;" TAKING AWAY THE BORDER DISPUTE FORCES 
ISAIAS TO ADDRESS DOMESTIC PROBLEMS SUCH AS POLITICAL AND 
ECONOMIC REFORM.  HOUDEK NOTED THAT ISAIAS HAS PROFOUND 
PROBLEMS WITH THE DIASPORA, A REMARKABLY SUCCESSFUL FOREIGN 
COMMUNITY IN THE U.S.  ALTHOUGH THE DIASPORA IS RESTRAINED IN 
SPEAKING OUT PUBLICLY AGAINST THE ERITREAN GOVERNMENT (DUE TO 
THEIR FINANCIAL INTERESTS IN ASMARA), ISAIAS IS SLOWLY LOSING 
SUPPORT AMONG HIS OVERSEAS BRETHREN. CABRAS NOTED THAT ISAIAS 
IS AN EXTREMELY SOLITARY PERSON AND EVEN HIS FEW CLOSEST 
ASSOCIATES FOSTER AN INCREASING PARANOIA ABOUT THE WESTERN 
WORLD AND A CONSPIRACY AGAINST HIM.  HOUDEK REMARKED THAT 
SINCE ASSUMING POWER ISAIAS HAS WANTED A CLOSER SECURITY 
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE US AS A MEANS OF DETERRENCE. ACCORDING 
TO CABRAS, ISAIAS HAS BEEN UNABLE TO FOSTER SUCH A 
RELATIONSHIP BECAUSE OF HIS REFUSAL TO TALK WITH WESTERN 
OFFICIALS OVER A VARIETY OF INCIDENTS, SUCH AS HIS DECISION 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7627 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  02151  02 OF 02  160730Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   INL-00   PERC-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EAP-00   EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OIC-02 
      OIG-03   OMB-01   DHS-00   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00 
      EPAE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     SAS-00 
      SWCI-00    /009W 
                  ------------------660812  160731Z /38 
P 160730Z MAY 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9923 
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 
CIA WASHDC PRIORITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 002151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF BLOSSOM PERRY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2013 
TAGS: ER, ET, PREL, UNSC 
SUBJECT: EAST AFRICA: NIO HOUDEK'S DISCUSSIONS WITH ITALIAN 
MFA OFFICIALS 
 
TO EXPEL THE ITALIAN AMBASSADOR FROM ERITREA. 
 
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PAGE 02        ROME  02151  02 OF 02  160730Z 
SOMALIA 
 
6. (C) ASKED FOR AN ASSESSMENT OF TERRORIST ACTIVITY 
EMANATING FROM SOMALIA, HOUDEK NOTED THE U.S. VIEWS SOMALIA 
AS AN IMPORTANT TRANSIT POINT AND HIDING PLACE FOR 
TERRORISTS. HOWEVER, SOMALIA DOES NOT PROVIDE A HOSPITABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR A SUBSTANTIAL TERRORIST INFRASTRUCTURE 
BECAUSE THERE IS NO FRIENDLY GOVERNMENT TO PROTECT THE 
TERRORISTS.  KENYA, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS A SOPHISTICATED 
COUNTRY OFFERING EFFECTIVE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE  (I.E. 
BANKING, TELECOM, TRANSPORTATION) ENABLING TERRORISTS TO 
FUNCTION MORE EFFECTIVELY.  ITS SECURITY SERVICES, WHILE 
WILLING, ARE NOT EFFECTIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT TERRORISTS FROM 
USING KENYA, MORE THAN SOMALIA, AS AN OPERATIONAL BASE. 
 
7. (C) ON SOMALIA RECONCILIATION EFFORTS, CABRAS NOTED THAT 
BOTH OUR CARROTS AND OUR STICKS ARE TOO SMALL TO MAKE THE 
FACTIONS SEE THE VALUE OF AN AGREEMENT.  MEANWHILE, AN ENTIRE 
GENERATION IS GETTING ITS SOCIAL SERVICES, MOST IMPORTANTLY 
EDUCATION, FROM FUNDAMENTALIST ISLAMIC NETWORKS.  PROVISION 
OF EDUCATIONAL AND OTHER PUBLIC SERVICES IS IN THE WESTERN 
INTEREST, BUT ITALY AND THE EU ARE STRETCHED TOO THIN TO MAKE 
A MAJOR NEW EFFORT. HOUDEK QUESTIONED CABRAS' ASSERTION THAT 
RESOURCES AND PUBLIC SERVICES WOULD TRANSFORM SOMALIA.  THE 
REAL PROBLEM IS THAT SOMALIS VIEW LIFE AS A ZERO SUM GAME 
AND, THUS, RELISH THE OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF 
FOREIGNERS FOR THEIR OWN GAIN. THE SOMALIS WOULD BE OVERJOYED 
TO SEE COMPETITION BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE MUSLIM WORLD, A 
LA THE COLD WAR WHERE THE USG AND USSR COURTED THEM WITH 
RESOURCES.  HOUDEK SUGGESTED THAT A POLICY OF BENIGN NEGLECT 
MIGHT DO MORE TO FORCE THE SOMALIS TO TAKE THE LEAD IN 
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ADDRESSING THEIR OWN PROBLEMS. 
SEMBLER 
 
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 2003ROME02151 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL