US embassy cable - 95RIYADH5405

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 005405 
 
 
E.O.12958: DECL: OADR 1.6X5 
TAGS:  PINR, PGOV, SA 
SUBJECT:  SAUDI ARABIA: REGARDLESS OF AGE SENIORITY, 
          PRINCE MISH'AL IS NOT A CONTENDER 
 
REF:  A. RIYADH 5123, B. STATE 282410 
 
1.  CLASSIFIED BY DCM THEODORE KATTOUF: 1.5B. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2.  (C)  THE BODY OF EVIDENCE DEMONSTRATES THAT CONTRARY 
TO SOME PUBLISHED REPORTS, PRINCE MISH'AL (AS WELL AS 
THE DECEASED PRINCE ABD AL-MUHSIN) WAS BORN BEFORE 
MINDEF SULTAN.  HOWEVER, MISH'AL'S SENIORITY IN AGE DOES 
NOT MAKE HIM A SUCCESSION CANDIDATE, SUFFERING AS HE 
DOES FROM SEVERAL STRIKES: A NON-SAUDI MATERNAL LINEAGE, 
A LACKLUSTER RECORD IN GOVERNMENT OFFICE, AND A 
REPUTATION FOR ARGUING WITH HIS BROTHERS.  SULTAN'S 
ECLIPSE OF MISH'AL, THE SEVENTH TIME A SENIOR SON OF 
KING ABD AL-AZIZ HAS BEEN PASSED OVER, IS A MEASURE OF 
THE STRICT CRITERIA APPLIED TO SUCCESSION CANDIDATES. 
END SUMMARY 
 
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PRINCE MISH'AL IS OLDER 
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3.  (U)  IN A SEARCH OF OUR BIOGRAPHIC FILES, AND IN 
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE UK EMBASSY ROYAL FAMILY WATCHER, 
THERE APPEARS TO BE DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE THAT BOTH 
MISH'AL BIN ABD AL-AZIZ AND ABD AL-MUHSIN BIN ABD 
AL-AZIZ ARE/WERE OLDER THAN MINDEF SULTAN.  ABD 
AL-MUHSIN'S DEATH IN 1985 MAKES THE POINT MOOT, BUT 
MISH'AL'S SENIORITY IN AGE OVER SULTAN ADDS TO THE BODY 
OF EVIDENCE THAT THE INNER CIRCLE OF THE AL SAUD CAN AND 
DO EXCLUDE FROM SUCCESSION THOSE FOUND LACKING IN 
LINEAGE, LEADERSHIP, AND PERSONAL CHARACTER. 
HISTORICALLY, MISH'AL'S SENIORITY TO SULTAN WAS EVIDENT 
IN: 
 
-- THE MARCH 29, 1964 PETITION BY MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL 
FAMILY URGING CROWN PRINCE FAYSAL TO EXERCISE THE POWERS 
OF KING:  MISH'AL, THEN THE AMIR OF MECCA, WAS THE 20TH 
SIGNATOR (ABD AL-MUHSIN WAS 17TH), WHILE MINDEF SULTAN 
WAS THE 24TH. 
 
-- PRESS REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF KING KHALID IN 1982: 
MISH'AL, THEN OUT OF GOVERNMENT, WAS LISTED AHEAD OF 
MINDEF SULTAN IN THE REPORT OF THOSE ATTENDING THE 
FUNERAL PRAYER. 
 
-- REFTEL (A) ACCOUNTS OF THE FUNERAL OF THE SAUD 
AL-KABIR ELDER: AGAIN, PROTOCOL PLACED MISH'AL AHEAD OF 
SULTAN. 
 
-- KING FAHD'S DECEMBER 5, 1995 HOSPITAL MAJLIS: MOST 
RECENTLY, THE TELEVISED HOSPITAL MAJLIS, IN WHICH THE 
KING'S BROTHERS WERE SEATED ALONG THE WALL IN STRICT 
BIRTH PECKING ORDER, HAD MISH'AL SECOND TO BANDAR BIN 
ABD AL-AZIZ.  SEATED NEXT TO MISH'AL WAS SULTAN. 
 
4.  (C)  THE UK EMBASSY ROYAL WATCHER CHECKED THEIR COPY 
OF LEES' "HANDBOOK OF THE AL SAUD," WHICH WE BELIEVE IS 
THE SOURCE OF THE MISINFORMATION, AND REPORTED THAT 
SOMEONE HAD ANNOTATED THE BOOK IN PEN TO REFLECT BOTH 
MISH'AL'S AND ABD AL-MUHSIN'S SENIORITY TO SULTAN. 
 
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MISH'AL BOWS OUT OF SUCCESSION - ALBEIT UNGRACEFULLY 
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5.  (S)  IN MARCH 1992, THE CROWN PRINCE'S PRINCIPAL 
ADVISER, SHAYKH ABD AL-MUHSIN AL-TUWAIJRI, RELATED 
MISH'AL'S EXTREME UNHAPPINESS WITH NOT BEING SELECTED 
SECOND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER IN 1982, DESPITE HIS 
SENIORITY IN AGE TO MINDEF SULTAN.  ACCORDING TO 
TUWAIJRI, THE DESIGNATION OF SULTAN WAS MADE QUICKLY AND 
ONLY BY THE THREE INDIVIDUALS INVOLVED -- FAHD, 
ABDULLAH, AND SULTAN.  TUWAIJRI NOTED THAT MISH'AL 
COMPLAINED TO BANDAR BIN ABD AL-AZIZ, WHO TOOK UP HIS 
CAUSE. 
 
6.  (C)  IN THE INTERVENING YEARS, HOWEVER, MISH'AL HAS 
RECONCILED HIMSELF TO THE FACT THAT HIS IMMEDIATE 
BROTHERS FIND HIM LACKING IN THE QUALITIES THEY DESIRE 
IN A KING.  (NOTE: MISH'AL HAD THREE STRIKES AGAINST 
HIM: HIS NON-SAUDI MATERNAL LINEAGE, HIS LACKLUSTER 
RECORD AS A PUBLIC SERVANT, AND HIS ARGUMENTATIVE 
REPUTATION.)  THIS RECOGNITION HAS BEEN MADE PUBLICLY 
AND PRIVATELY.  IN A 1992 INTERVIEW WITH THE SAUDI 
NEWSPAPER "AL-MADINAH," MISH'AL DECLARED HIS FEALTY TO 
FAHD AND ABDULLAH AND NOTED THAT "I PERSONALLY DO NOT 
ENVY THEIR LIVES WHICH ARE FULL OF SERVICE FOR ALL; 
WHOEVER LEADS SUCH A LIFE MUST BE SHOULDERING A 
BURDENSOME DUTY."  AND, IN A JUNE 1995 CONVERSATION WITH 
THE AMBASSADOR, MISH'AL STATED THAT HE HOPED "NEVER TO 
BE AN OFFICIAL." 
 
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COMMENT: MANIPULATING THE SUCCESSION 
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7.  (C)  TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MISH'AL AND ABD AL-MUHSIN'S 
CHRONOLOGICAL SENIORITY TO SULTAN, ON SEVEN OCCASIONS 
THE SONS OF KING ABD AL-AZIZ HAVE PASSED OVER WOULD-BE 
CONTENDERS TO THE POSITION OF KING.  WHILE SENIORITY IS 
CRITICAL TO ENTERING THE SUCCESSION LINE-UP (AS SECOND 
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OR CROWN PRINCE), SO TOO ARE 
MATERNAL SAUDI LINEAGE, PERSONAL CHARACTER, AND 
DEMONSTRATED LEADERSHIP POTENTIAL.  MEASURED AGAINST 
THESE CRITERIA, ONLY A HANDFUL OF THE 25 SURVIVING SONS 
OF KING ABD AL-AZIZ SHOULD REALISTICALLY BE CONSIDERED 
PRESENT AND POTENTIAL POWERBROKERS.  SEPTEL WILL ANALYZE 
SUCCESSION POSSIBILITIES. 
 
 
MABUS