US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA1243

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 001243 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, EAID, PREL, PINR, KDEM, GT 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT OF SUPREME ELECTORAL TRIBUNAL DISCUSSES 
UPCOMING ELECTIONS WITH AMBASSADOR 
 
 
Classified By: AIDOFF Todd Amani for reason 1.5 (b)(d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  During a courtesy call by the Ambassador, 
the President of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) 
indicated his belief that General Rios Montt is prohibited by 
law from being a candidate for president, but noted that if 
the TSE is asked to decide this question, other magistrates 
may have different views.  He stated that the TSE would be 
seeking a decision from the Constitutional Court to force the 
Congress to name a new magistrate to fill the position left 
open when one of the original magistrates selected by the 
Congress refused to take the position.  He also indicated 
that the Carter Center had sought him out to discuss an 
election observation mission. End summary. 
 
TSE Position on Rios Montt Candidacy 
 
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2. (C) The Ambassador paid a courtesy call on President of 
Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal Oscar Bolanos on May 
7, 2003 to express support for their efforts and review 
current issues facing the Tribunal.  In response to a 
question about what the TSE will do if General Rios Montt 
attempts to register as a candidate, Bolanos indicated that 
he believes it is clear under the law that he cannot be a 
candidate.  When asked how other magistrates feel about the 
issue, Bolanos indicated that he had spoken to two of them 
and believes there may be some willingness by others on the 
TSE to approve Rios Montt as a candidate.  (COMMENT:  Bolanos 
 
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position on this issue could be important if the TSE must 
rule on Rios Montt's candidacy.  Observers believe two of the 
current magistrates may have links to the FRG, while the 
remaining two seem to operate more independently.  Thus, 
Bolanos' position on the five-person tribunal could be the 
determining vote.  Even if the TSE were to disapprove a Rios 
Montt candidacy, it would likely be appealed to the 
Constitutional Court which could well approve his candidacy. 
END COMMENT) 
 
Addressing Disputed TSE Position 
----------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The Ambassador raised the issue of the TSE position 
that was not filled after the new TSE was initially named, 
noting that an OAS legal review suggested that Congressional 
failure to select a new magistrate could leave the TSE open 
to legal challenges at any point during the election process. 
  Bolanos indicated that the TSE has pressed this issue with 
Congressional leaders repeatedly since they took office but 
have been told that Congress is unable to get the two-thirds 
vote needed to name a new magistrate.   Referring to the law, 
he noted that he believes the current situation whereby a 
suplente has filled the position is defensible legally (as 
the FRG leadership has stated to Embassy officers), but the 
TSE believes the questions raised about this situation could 
 
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damage the credibility of the institution during the election 
period.  He noted confidentially that the TSE would be 
seeking a ruling from the constitutional court the following 
day to force the hand of the Congress on this issue. 
(COMMENT:  Legal opinions on this matter seem to differ, but 
Bolanos is probably right that this issue needs to be 
addressed for political reasons.  Court action may put 
increased pressure on the Congress to get the few remaining 
votes needed to name a new magistrate and resolve this 
situation. END COMMENT) 
 
Carter Center Interest In Observation Mission 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4.  (SBU) In response to a question about various planned 
observation missions to be carried out by the OAS, EU, and 
local civil society groups, Bolanos noted that he had been 
sought out by the Carter Center while observing the Argentina 
election process regarding a possible observation mission to 
Guatemala.  He noted that the TSE is generally supportive of 
these efforts.  (COMMENT:  Embassy was not aware of Carter 
Center plans for an observation mission, but welcomes their 
involvement if they have funding from other sources.  At this 
point we do not have resources available to fund a Carter 
Center observation effort.) 
HAMILTON