US embassy cable - 03ROME2067

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 002067 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IT, IT PGOV 
SUBJECT:  ITALY'S UPCOMING LOCAL ELECTIONS:  POLITICS AS 
USUAL 
 
REF:  A) ROME 1971  B) ROME 294  C) 02 ROME 0011 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  02067  01 OF 02  131444Z 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  UPCOMING LOCAL ELECTIONS 
INVOLVING A THIRD OF ITALY'S ELECTORATE ARE UNLIKELY TO 
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON NATIONAL POLITICS, THOUGH A CASUAL 
OBSERVER WOULD NEVER KNOW IT FROM THE PITCHED MEDIA BATTLES 
BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION.  POLITICIANS ARE MADLY 
SPINNING THE PROJECTED RESULTS, AS THEY WILL THE FINAL 
RESULTS.  THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT WOULD WELCOME A STRONG 
SHOWING TO REAFFIRM ONGOING PUBLIC SUPPORT AS THE PRIME 
MINISTER'S LEGAL PROBLEMS REMAIN FRONT AND CENTER (REF A). 
WE SUSPECT FEW ITALIANS WILL HAVE NATIONAL ISSUES (OR THE 
WAR ON IRAQ) ON THEIR MINDS AS THEY VOTE FOR THEIR LOCAL 
MAYOR OR COUNCIL MEMBER.  THE ITALIAN MEDIA HAS USED 
OCCASIONAL SQUABBLES WITHIN COALITIONS (ESPECIALLY THE 
CENTER-RIGHT GOVERNMENT) AS THEY NEGOTIATE WHEN, WHO AND 
WHERE TO RUN SINGLE CANDIDATES TO HIGHLIGHT POLITICAL 
DISARRAY.  BUT IN TRUTH THE LEAD-UP TO THESE NOT-SO- 
TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT ELECTIONS HAS BEEN NOT SO TERRIBLY 
SIGNIFICANT.  THE RESULTS SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS INDICATIVE 
OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT'S STAYING POWER.  END SUMMARY 
AND COMMENT. 
 
2.  (U)  BETWEEN MAY 18 AND JUNE 23, ITALIAN ELECTORS WILL 
BE CALLED TO VOTE IN A SERIES OF ELECTIONS FOR LOCAL (CITY, 
PROVINCE, AND REGION) OFFICIALS, AS WELL AS IN A NATIONAL 
REFERENDUM. 
--  ON MAY 25-26, ALMOST THIRTEEN MILLION ITALIANS WILL 
VOTE FOR 12 PROVINCIAL COUNCILS AND 495 CITY COUNCILS.  RUN- 
OFF ELECTIONS WILL BE JUNE 8-9.  (NOTE:  ITALIAN ELECTIONS 
NORMALLY ARE HELD FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO THE FOLLOWING 
MONDAY AT MID-DAY, WITH POLLS CLOSING OVERNIGHT.) 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  02067  01 OF 02  131444Z 
--  A REFERENDUM VOTE ON THE FAMOUS "ARTICLE 18" EMPLOYMENT 
STATUTE GOVERNING FIRING OF EMPLOYEES WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 
15 (REF B AND SEPTEL). 
--  A SUPPLEMENTAL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION FOR ONE OF THE 
DISTRICTS IN THE LAZIO (ROME) REGION WILL BE HELD JUNE 22- 
23 TO FILL A VACANT SENATE SEAT. 
 
3.  (U)  ITALY'S FIVE AUTONOMOUS REGIONS HAVE THE RIGHT TO 
CHOOSE THEIR OWN ELECTION DATES, AND THREE INDEED SET 
THEIRS SEPARATELY.  SARDINIA AND SICILY CHOSE TO KEEP THEIR 
CITY AND PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS ON THE NATIONALLY-SELECTED 
MAY 25-26 DATES.  (NOTE:  ITALY'S FIVE AUTONOMOUS REGIONS 
ARE VALLE D'AOSTA, TRENTINO-ALTO ADIGE, AND FRIULI-VENEZIA 
GIULIA, ALL IN THE NORTH, AND THE ISLANDS OF SARDINIA AND 
SICILY.  EACH REGION HAS A DIFFERENT STATUTE GRANTING IT 
CERTAIN RIGHTS, INTER ALIA THAT OF IMPLEMENTING ITS OWN 
ELECTION LAWS.)  ITALY'S 15 NON-AUTONOMOUS REGIONS ELECT 
THEIR PRESIDENTS CONCURRENTLY (THE NEXT ELECTIONS WILL BE 
IN 2005), AND THOSE ELECTIONS ARE HOTLY CONTESTED BY 
NATIONAL POLITICAL PARTIES, ATTRACT CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION, 
AND REFLECT THE NATIONAL MOOD AND INTERESTS.  THE 
SEPARATELY-HELD ELECTIONS FOR THE AUTONOMOUS REGIONS, 
HOWEVER, ARE LESS SIGNIFICANT NATIONALLY. 
--  ON MAY 18, ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD IN TRENTINO-ALTO 
ADIGE FOR THREE CITY COUNCILS; 
--  JUNE 8 WAS SELECTED BY VALLE D'AOSTA FOR ELECTIONS FOR 
A NEW REGIONAL PRESIDENT AND ONE CITY COUNCIL; 
-- JUNE 8-9, RESIDENTS OF FRIULI-VENEZIA GIULIA WILL CHOOSE 
A NEW REGIONAL PRESIDENT AND SEVEN CITY COUNCILS. 
 
4.  (SBU)  LOCAL ELECTIONS GENERALLY NEITHER REFLECT NOR 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  02067  01 OF 02  131444Z 
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT NATIONAL POLITICS, SINCE ITALIAN 
VOTERS AND CANDIDATES -- LIKE THEIR AMERICAN COUNTERPARTS 
-- TEND TO FOCUS ON LOCAL PERSONALITIES AND ISSUES WHEN 
VOTING FOR THEIR MAYORS AND CITY OR PROVINCIAL COUNCILS. 
THIS SPRING'S LOCAL ELECTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT LESS SIGNIFICANT 
NATIONALLY THAN MOST, SINCE NO MAJOR CITIES ARE HOLDING 
ELECTIONS.  POLITICIANS, HOWEVER, CAN BE EXPECTED TO SEEK 
TO PORTRAY RESULTS AS A REFERENDUM ON BERLUSCONI AND HIS 
POLICIES.  IF THE CENTER-RIGHT WINS OVERALL, ITS MEMBERS 
WILL ANNOUNCE THAT THE PUBLIC HAS AGAIN SHOWN ITS SUPPORT 
FOR THE PRIME MINISTER.  IF THE REVERSE OCCURS, THE CENTER- 
LEFT OPPOSITION WILL TRUMPET THE PUBLIC'S REJECTION OF THE 
GOI AND ITS LEADER.  IN EITHER CASE, WE SUSPECT, AND MOST 
OF OUR CONTACTS CONCUR, THAT MOST VOTERS WILL THINK LITTLE, 
IF AT ALL, ABOUT BERLUSCONI'S LEGAL PROBLEMS, ECONOMIC 
REFORM, GOVERNMENT RESTRUCTURING, OR THE WAR IN IRAQ WHEN 
CASTING THEIR VOTE FOR CITY MAYOR. 
 
5.  (SBU)  THIS TENDENCY, COUPLED WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE 
CENTER-LEFT TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN LOCAL ELECTIONS DUE 
TO BETTER ORGANIZATION AND CANDIDATES, MAY BE EXACTLY WHAT 
BERLUSCONI IS SEEKING TO COMBAT WITH SOME OF HIS RECENT, 
MORE INFLAMMATORY RHETORIC.  BY RAISING THE SPECTER OF A 
POTENTIAL "COMMUNIST VICTORY" AND PORTRAYING HIMSELF AS A 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ5257 
 
PAGE 01        ROME  02067  02 OF 02  131445Z 
ACTION EUR-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    UTED-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00 
      TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00  IIP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00 
      DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------644928  131509Z /38 
R 131444Z MAY 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ROME 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9833 
INFO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
AMCONSUL MILAN 
AMCONSUL NAPLES 
AMCONSUL FLORENCE 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 002067 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS:  PGOV, IT 
SUBJECT:  ITALY'S UPCOMING LOCAL ELECTIONS:  POLITICS AS 
USUAL 
 
VICTIM OF LEFTIST PERSECUTION (COMMENT:  WHICH HE TRULY 
BELIEVES, IN ANY EVENT), HE MAY BE SEEKING TO "NATIONALIZE" 
LOCAL ELECTIONS AND THUS URGE AT LEAST SOME OF THE VOTERS 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  02067  02 OF 02  131445Z 
WHO ELECTED HIM IN 2001 TO THE POLLS TO CAST CENTER-RIGHT 
VOTES.  A LOUDER STRATEGY RISKS NOISIER POLITICAL 
REPERCUSSIONS IN THE EVENT OF A POOR CENTER-RIGHT SHOWING, 
HOWEVER.  PROMINENT COLUMNIST STEFANO FOLLI NOTED IN 
LEADING CENTRIST DAILY "CORRIERE DELLA SERA" ON MAY 12 THAT 
"A BAD SHOW BY BERLUSCONI'S COALITION ON MAY 25...COULD 
TURN INTO SOMETHING BIGGER THAN A (MID-TERM) SETBACK..." 
FOLLI ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE ABSOLUTE IMPERATIVE, AND THUS THE 
VIRTUAL GUARANTEE, THAT THE GOVERNING COALITION REMAIN 
UNITED THROUGH, AND BEYOND, THESE ELECTIONS. 
 
6.  (U)  THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE JUNE 15 REFERENDUM 
REGARDING CHANGES TO LABOR STATUTE ARTICLE 18 WILL BE FULLY 
ANALYZED SEPTEL.  THIS REFERENDUM WILL BE THE FIRST 
OCCASION FOR ITALIAN CITIZENS TO VOTE FROM ABROAD.  IN THE 
PAST, ITALIANS LIVING ABROAD HAD TO TRAVEL TO ITALY TO 
VOTE, BUT IN DECEMBER 2001 A LAW WAS PASSED TO AMEND THE 
CONSTITUTION, MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR ITALIAN CITIZENS TO 
VOTE FROM ABROAD (REF C) IN NATIONAL-LEVEL ELECTIONS. 
 
7.  (SBU)  THE SENATE SUPPLEMENTAL ELECTION IN LAZIO WILL 
REPLACE CENTER-LEFT SENATOR SEVERINO LAVAGNINI WHO DIED 
RECENTLY.  MOST LIKELY THE SEAT WILL GO TO THE CENTER-LEFT 
AGAIN.  LAVAGNINI WON THE 2001 ELECTION BY A HANDFUL OF 
VOTES WHEN THE CENTER-LEFT OLIVE TREE (ULIVO) COALITION AND 
COMMUNIST RENEWAL (RC) RAN SEPARATE CANDIDATES.  AS THIS IS 
A SINGLE SEAT ELECTION, RC MAY DECIDE TO SUPPORT THE ULIVO 
CANDIDATE, GIVING THE CENTER-LEFT A BETTER CHANCE TO WIN. 
THIS ELECTION WILL NOT CHANGE THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE 
SENATE, IN ANY EVENT. 
SEMBLER 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  02067  02 OF 02  131445Z 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
> 
 2003ROME02067 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED