US embassy cable - 03HARARE925

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000925 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: AFRICAN PRESIDENTIAL VISIT NEXT WEEK - MASS ACTION 
DELAYED TWO WEEKS 
 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
1. (C) Plans for a Tsvangirai visit to Malawi have been 
scrapped in favor of Malawian President Muluzi and South 
African president Mbeki coming to Harare next week for talks 
with the MDC.  The MDC planned stayaway has also been delayed 
for another two weeks.  Switching the presidential meeting to 
Harare was reportedly due to Mugabe's fear that Tsvangirai 
might also travel to South Africa on an invitation from 
Mbeki.  Regardless, Mugabe is likely to lose comparatively 
from the upcoming talks because the MDC is being recognized 
regionally as an essential negotiator for Zimbabwe's future. 
End Summary. 
 
Malawi Meeting Switched to Harare 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) According to the special assistant to the MDC 
President, Gandi Mudzingwa, plans for a meeting in Malawi 
between MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai and President Muluzi, 
had been scrapped in favor of a meeting in Harare with Muluzi 
and Mbeki sometime in the week of May 19 - 23.  Mudzingwa had 
been communicating with the Malawian High Commissioner in 
Harare on the planning and travel documents for the trip.  On 
May 11, the High Commissioner said that President Mugabe was 
afraid that Mbeki might also invite Tsvangirai to meetings in 
South Africa during Tsvangirai's trip. 
 
MDC to Gain Regardless 
---------------------- 
 
3. (C) Mudzingwa said that while meetings in Malawi might 
have been more desirable, the MDC is still gaining ground 
with the current plan: regional leaders are recognizing the 
MDC as a legitimate representative of the Zimbabwean people, 
and a key player in negotiations on Zimbabwe's future; and 
the meetings will reaffirm the MDC as a willing negotiating 
partner, and most likely, the GOZ as obstructionist. 
Mudzingwa said there was nothing specific yet on an agenda; 
however, it seems clear from Mbeki's recommendation that the 
MDC recognize Mugabe as the de facto President of Zimbabwe 
that Mbeki would like to get the inter-party dialogue started 
again. 
 
MDC Might Consider Recognition with Exit Plan 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Mudzingwa said they might consider such recognition if 
there was a quid pro quo guarantee of Mugabe's exit. 
Mudzingwa understood that the moment may be ripe to restart 
negotiations.  Mbeki's interest was due to the June 1-3 G8 
Summit in Evian where Mbeki will want to demonstrate a track 
record for African peer review in the context of a funding 
appeal for NEPAD.  Mudzingwa was receptive to the suggestion 
that the MDC needed to find a formulation for language on 
Mugabe's status that did not constitute an agreement to 
preconditions. 
 
Preparing for Mass Action 
------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Mudzingwa said there was no specific plan to make the 
mass action coincide with the meetings; however, that might 
happen coincidentally.  Mudzingwa said it had not been 
determined what form the mass action would take, that it 
would probably start as a stayaway, and potentially move into 
demonstrations, marches, or even a march on State House. 
Mudzingwa said that many MDC activists at the grass roots 
level would like to organize an ocean of people to march on 
State House and force Mugabe to abdicate, but the MDC 
leadership was not convinced this was possible. 
 
6. (C) Mudzingwa said the success of the mass action was 
contingent on the Zimbabwe Defense Forces' (ZDF) response. 
As long as the ZDF did not beat up or shoot MDC supporters, 
the mass action could continue and gain strength.  Mudzingwa 
said that the MDC had consulted discreetly with the Zimbabwe 
Republic Police (ZRP) and did not foresee a significant 
crackdown from them, or for that matter, the disorganized 
youth militia.  If a crackdown were severe, it would then 
take them more time to build confidence and organize further 
mass actions. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
7. (C) Mugabe's reluctance to accept regional recognition for 
the MDC would explain his insistence that the presidential 
meetings be held in Harare.  We would expect Mugabe to 
thereby try and retain control of the event.  However, we 
tend to agree with the MDC's assessment that overall he is 
likely to lose from the upcoming round whichever way it goes. 
 The bottom line is that the MDC is increasingly being 
recognized regionally as a key negotiator for Zimbabwe's 
future.  End Comment. 
WHITEHEAD