US embassy cable - 03ABUJA872

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000872 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR J. FRASER 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI'S MOVEMENTS NOT RESTRICTED; 
BUT CAMPAIGN RALLIES WERE CANCELLED 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons: 
1.5 (B & D). 
 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  On April 30, there was confusion 
whether ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari 
had been restricted to his house in Daura, Katsina 
State.  Buhari's supporters asserted that he had been 
placed under de facto house arrest.  GON officials 
disavowed the claim, stating that Buhari had only been 
stopped from holding political rallies because his 
party had refused to get the required permits.  ANPP 
members claim they had the necessary permits. 
Definitely, Buhari was not placed under arrest. 
However, the rumors of his arrest and the cancellation 
of the political rallies only add to the political 
tension, particularly in northern Nigeria.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (SBU)  The BBC Hausa radio service reported early 
on April 29 that ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu 
Buhari had been restricted to his residence.  The 
Katsina State Police Commissioner reportedly told the 
Katsina ANPP Chairman that Buhari was restricted to 
his house "on orders."  In an afternoon broadcast, the 
Press Officer for the Katsina State Police Command 
told the BBC that the restriction was not on Buhari 
but on political activity.  "All political rallies in 
Katsina State have been cancelled due to security 
reasons," he said on the air. 
 
 
3.  (C)  According to a contact in the Buhari campaign 
press office, Buhari was told "not to leave his house 
on orders from the Presidency."  This contact said 
that Buhari had scheduled a full slate of rallies for 
that week to encourage ANPP supporters not to boycott 
the May 3 State Assembly elections.  "If we prevail at 
the tribunals, we want State Assemblies supportive of 
our winning candidates," he said.  (COMMENT:  This 
comment cannot be taken at face value.  A Buhari 
campaign official would want to make Obasanjo look the 
part of the undemocratic heavy.  Making people believe 
that Obasanjo ordered Buhari's house arrest would be a 
fine way of accomplishing this feat.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
4.  (C)  A flag officer at the Ministry of Defense 
told Poloff that President Obasanjo had ordered the 
military to arrest Buhari.  According to the source, 
Obasanjo had been encouraged by "hawks" within the 
Presidency, who told him, "no one reacted when Abacha 
had you arrested."  The source said that Director of 
Military Intelligence Maj. Gen. Williams Ajibade sent 
a memo to the Chief of Army Staff advising him that 
the military should remain neutral, describing the 
dispute as "political" and an "issue for the police." 
After the COAS showed the memo to Obasanjo, Ajibade 
was immediately reassigned to the National Institute 
for Policy and Strategic Studies.   Source claimed 
that Obasanjo had "rethought" Buhari's arrest and now 
realized that the move would have been counter- 
productive.  This same account was repeated to Poloff 
by a mid-level member of the President's staff and, 
subsequently, by a retired military officer. 
 
 
5.  (U)  Buhari had been scheduled to hold rallies in 
Funtua (Katsina State) on April 28 and Zaria (Kaduna 
State) and Katsina Ala (Benue State) on April 29.  He 
had reportedly scheduled other rallies on April 30. 
The ANPP claims that all rallies were scheduled in 
advance and that the police had issued appropriate 
permits. 
 
 
6.  (C)  Contacts in the Funtua LGA told Emboffs that 
ANPP party leaders in Funtua had been arrested on 
April 28 and Buhari was advised not to travel as 
"there would be no rally."  According to an Emirate 
source, ANPP leaders in Zaria were informed by 
security services that the scheduled April 29 rally 
would not be allowed to take place and Buhari would 
not be able to visit Zaria. 
 
 
7. (C)  The rendition of events given by the GON was 
starkly different from what ANPP members told us. 
Director General of State Security Service Kayode Are 
told the Ambassador that Buhari was never restricted 
to his house and that his freedom of movement had not 
been abridged.  However, the police stopped the ANPP 
from conducting a political rally because the party 
had not applied for the required permit.  Are said 
that the permit would be granted if the party applied. 
He added further that ANPP supporters were being 
purposefully confrontational by attempting to stage 
the rally without a permit. ANPP stalwarts were hoping 
to provoke a response from the police that would 
escalate political tension, Are asserted.  However, 
the police had been cautioned to exercise restraint. 
 
 
8.  (C)  In a meeting with DCM, ANPP National Chairman 
Don Etiebet also contradicted earlier statements made 
by his party members.  Confirming Are's statement, 
Etiebet summarily dismissed the claim that Buhari had 
been restricted to his house. 
 
 
9.  (C)  While observing the May 3 elections in 
Katsina State May 3, Poloff drove past Buhari's Daura 
residence.  About 20 policemen and 10-15 military 
personnel were in front of the residence, but the 
gates were open and people appeared to be coming and 
going freely.  According to the ANPP chairman in 
Katsina, Buhari had visited Funtua and Katsina just 
prior to elections, but no rallies were held. 
(Comment: As an ex-Head of State, Buhari has a 
security detail, which was probably beefed up when he 
entered the race for the Presidency.  Moreover, 
Katsina was one of the Northern States where the GON 
expected trouble. End Comment). 
 
 
10.  (C)  COMMENT:  One event, two vastly different 
versions of what happened.  In a nutshell, Buhari was 
not restricted to his residence but political rallies 
were cancelled.  We seriously doubt that the 
government would be foolish enough to arrest Buhari. 
In the end, this episode was a tempest in a teapot; 
however, some ANPP members sought to make it a storm. 
Nevertheless, the police were being formalistic and 
probably did not act with much aplomb when canceling 
the campaign rallies.  While this incident eventually 
fizzled out, anxiety remains high and we expect more 
such rumors and intense moments, before the May 29 
Presidential inauguration. 
JETER