US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA1325

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001325 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KUWAIT FOR TODD SCHWARTZ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SENV, ECON, CA, Manitoba 
SUBJECT: CANADA:  MANITOBANS GO TO THE POLLS JUNE 3 
 
This message is a product of APP Winnipeg. 
 
1. (U) Summary.  Riding high in the public opinion polls, 
Manitoba Premier Gary Doer (New Democratic Party -- NDP) 
ended weeks of speculation by calling a provincial election 
for June 3.  Re-election of the NDP government will keep 
alive Canadian opposition to U.S. proposals seeking to 
alleviate flooding of North Dakota,s Devils Lake via 
drainage into the Red River. End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Situated at the geographic center of Canada, Manitoba 
has strong connections to the large agricultural component 
and strong conservative/populist streak of its western 
neighbors and also possesses the established industrial and 
manufacturing sector and union movement found in eastern 
Canada.  Within the context of Canada,s more "statist" 
federal system, Manitobans seek leadership that will play an 
active role in developing the province,s economic potential 
and sustain strong social programs such as health care. 
 
3. (U) Politics at the provincial level have long been 
polarized, with the left-leaning NDP and the conservative 
Progressive Conservative Party (PC) overshadowing the 
Manitoba Liberal Party, which has not led a government since 
the 1950s.  The current government came to power in 
September, 1999, in a sweeping victory that ended the 11-year 
dominance of the Progressive Conservative Party. 
 
4. (U) NDP support tends to be strongest in northern Manitoba 
and north and central Winnipeg --  less affluent areas with a 
high rate of labor union membership.  The PC generally does 
well in agricultural southern Manitoba and Winnipeg,s 
southern and western suburbs, which have tended to greater 
economic prosperity.  Liberal Party support, though 
relatively evenly distributed throughout the province, seldom 
has been sufficiently "concentrated" to win large numbers of 
seats. 
 
5. (U) Party divisions within the 57-seat Manitoba 
legislature are relatively stable, with the NDP and PC 
holding about 20 "safe" seats apiece, and approximately 15 
competitive "swing" constituencies determining the winner in 
every election.  In the last contest, the NDP took nearly all 
of the swing seats, including six with a margin of victory of 
less than 500 votes.  At dissolution of the Legislature on 
May 2, the NDP held 32 seats, the PC 24, and the Liberals 1, 
a configuration borne out in the latest polls which show the 
NDP leading the PC 44% to 30%, with the Liberals trailing at 
21%.  With Canada,s first-past-the-post electoral system, 
the NDP lead likely will translate into an absolute majority 
in the provincial Legislature. 
 
Incumbent Advantages 
-------------------- 
 
6. (U) Gary Doer and his party hold a number of advantages 
that make them virtually unbeatable.  In contrast to their 
disorganized and under-funded opponents, the NDP started out 
"debt-free" and now boasts a healthy (by provincial 
standards) C$300,000 (US$213,000) campaign war chest. 
Moreover, the government is credited for Manitoba,s strong 
economy, the lowest provincial unemployment rate in Canada 
(5.2%), and a balanced budget.  Nonetheless, the NDP seems 
not to take anything for granted and has conducted an 
aggressive media information campaign. 
 
 
PC Quick Out of the Gate with Tax Platform 
------------------------------------------ 
 
7. (U) The PC, on the other hand, is starting from behind the 
curve.  In his first election since assuming leadership of 
the Progressive Conservatives in 2000, Stuart Murray launched 
his campaign with a pledge to eliminate education taxes from 
citizens, property tax bills and criticism of Gary Doer for 
failing to provide tax relief despite a booming economy and 
vastly increased tax revenues. (Manitobans pay some of the 
highest property and income taxes in Canada).  Nonetheless, 
Murray lacks voter recognition and PC fundraising efforts 
have been significantly hindered since the NDP banned union 
and corporate donations several years ago.  The party starts 
the campaign with a C$400,000 (US$284,000) debt, no money on 
hand, and opinion polls showing them 10 points lower than 
their disappointing finish in the 1999 election. 
 
Liberals to Launch "Health Care Guarantee" 
------------------------------------------ 
 
8. (U) Liberal leader Jon Gerrard launched his quixotic 
campaign from a minivan disguised as an ambulance, to 
emphasize the Liberals' main campaign plank -- "a health care 
guarantee," the funding of alternative patient treatment in 
other provinces or even the U.S.  The platform is a challenge 
to the NDP,s 1999 pledge to end "hallway medicine" and 
reduce health care waiting lists.  Gerrard faces a struggle 
to hold the lone Liberal seat in the Legislature - which he 
won by less than 500 votes in 1999.  The Liberals start the 
campaign debt-free, and with C$100,000 (US$71,000) on hand. 
 
Comment 
------- 
9. (U) The NDP commands a resounding lead both in public 
opinion polls and campaign funding. The anticipated 
re-election of the NDP would not alter Manitoba's close and 
strong ties to neighboring U.S. states.  At the same time, 
however, it would strengthen Canadian efforts to quash 
alleviation of North Dakota,s Devils Lake flooding via 
diversion into the Red River or other similar means.  Doer 
has resolutely opposed U.S. proposals to allow Devils Lake 
water to drain into the Red River, and he likely will 
continue to oppose those and other proposals such as the 
"Northwest Area Supply Project," and inter-basin water 
transfers. End Comment. 
CELLUCCI