US embassy cable - 03JAKARTA5111

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ACEH: YUDHOYONO HOPES FOR "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD"

Identifier: 03JAKARTA5111
Wikileaks: View 03JAKARTA5111 at Wikileaks.org
Origin: Embassy Jakarta
Created: 2003-05-09 13:45:00
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Tags: PREL PHUM PGOV ID
Redacted: This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.
O 091345Z MAY 03
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3829
INFO ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 005111 
 
NSC FOR HADLEY, MORIARTY, BROOKS 
STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY, EAP 
SECDEF FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY WOLFOWITZ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PGOV, ID 
SUBJECT: ACEH: YUDHOYONO HOPES FOR "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" 
 
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TED LYNG FOR REASONS 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
2. (C) SUMMARY. MINISTER YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR MAY 9 
THAT HE HOPED FOR THE "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" TO SAVE THE 
ACEH PEACE PROCESS.  YUDHOYONO SAID THE WINDOW IS STILL OPEN 
FOR DIALOGUE AND HE PRAYS FOR A BREAKTHROUGH.  THE AMBASSADOR 
LOBBIED YUDHOYONO TO POSTPONE THE WITHDRAWAL OF INTERNATIONAL 
MONITORS AND TO RECONSIDER THE ARREST OF THREE GAM JOINT 
SECURITY COMMITTEE (JSC) NEGOTIATORS.  YUDHOYONO'S REMARKS 
ARE ENCOURAGING BUT, SHORT OF GAM'S CAPITULATION, WE VIEW A 
RENEWED MILITARY OFFENSIVE AS NEARLY INEVITABLE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
HAND OF GOD? 
------------ 
 
3. (C) COORDINATING MINISTER FOR POLITICAL AND SECURITY 
AFFAIRS SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR MAY 9 
THAT HE HOPED FOR "AN INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" TO SAVE THE ACEH 
PEACE PROCESS.  YUDHOYONO SAID THAT THE WINDOW FOR A 
NEGOTIATED SOLUTION REMAINED OPEN.  HE NOTED THAT PRESIDENT 
MEGAWATI HAD ENDORSED THE EFFORT OF A GROUP OF ACEHNESE 
PARLIAMENTARIANS TO LOBBY GAM TO BE FLEXIBLE.  YUDHOYONO 
INFERRED FROM THE PRESIDENT'S ENDORSEMENT OF THIS EFFORT THAT 
THERE WAS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT RENEWED MILITARY 
OPERATIONS COULD BE AVOIDED.  YUDHOYONO SAID HE PRAYED FOR A 
BREAKTHROUGH. 
 
YUDHOYONO PUSHES ZINNI MISSION 
------------------------------ 
 
4. (C) YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE HAD PRAISED THE 
ZINNI MISSION TO STOCKHOLM WITH PRESIDENT MEGAWATI.  HE WENT 
ON TO TELL HER THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE U.S., JAPAN AND EU 
HAVE "ALWAYS BEEN THERE FOR INDONESIA."  HE DID NOT DESCRIBE 
MEGAWATI'S REACTION. 
 
AMBASSADOR PRESSES ON WITHDRAWAL, ARRESTS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS THAT THE 
CENTRE FOR HUMANITARIAN DIALOGUE (HDC), WHICH HAS BEEN 
BROKERING THE ACEH PEACE AGREEMENT, WAS RECEIVING ABOUT THE 
WITHDRAWAL OF JSC INTERNATIONAL MONITORS.  YUDHOYONO SAID HIS 
OFFICE WAS PREPARING A LETTER INSTRUCTING HDC TO WITHDRAW ALL 
INTERNATIONAL STAFF ON SUNDAY, MAY 11.  THE AMBASSADOR 
PRESSED YUDHOYONO TO POSTPONE THE WITHDRAWAL UNTIL THE 
RESULTS OF THE ZINNI MISSION COULD BE ABSORBED, STRESSING 
THAT EVEN THE GOI'S OWN DEADLINE EXTENDED UNTIL MAY 12. 
YUDHOYONO REPLIED THAT THE AMBASSADOR'S REQUEST SEEMED QUITE 
REASONABLE AND PROMISED TO SEE WHAT COULD BE DONE TO 
ACCOMMODATE IT.  YUDHOYONO ADDED THAT HDC STAFF NOT PART OF 
THE FORMAL JSC STRUCTURE COULD STAY "FOR A FEW DAYS" OR MAYBE 
LONGER.  (NOTE:  WE LATER RECEIVED A REPORT THAT YUDHOYONO'S 
OFFICE IN FACT SENT THE LETTER INSTRUCTING HDC TO WITHDRAW ON 
SUNDAY.  AS OF 1930 THE SITUATION WAS STILL UNCLEAR.  END 
NOTE.) 
 
6. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED THE COORDINATING MINISTER IF HE 
WAS AWARE OF THE MAY 9 ARRESTS OF THREE OF FIVE GAM 
REPRESENTATIVES TO THE JSC'S BANDA ACEH HEADQUARTERS, TEUNGKU 
KAMARRUZAMAN, AMRI, AND AMNI.  YUDHOYONO ACKNOWLEDGED THE 
ARRESTS AND NOTED THAT THE THREE MAY HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO 
DEPART INDONESIA WITHOUT THE PROPER DOCUMENTATION.  THE 
AMBASSADOR REMINDED YUDHOYONO THAT THE COHA REMAINED IN 
EFFECT AND THAT DETAINING THE THREE WOULD SEND A NEGATIVE 
SIGNAL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  THE AMBASSADOR URGED 
THE GOI TO RELEASE THREE ARRESTED GAM MEMBERS.  YUDHOYONO 
SAID THAT HE WOULD LOOK INTO THE MATTER AND ENSURE THE THREE 
WERE TREATED STRICTLY ACCORDING TO LAW. 
 
COMMENT: DIVINE INTERVENTION? 
----------------------------- 
 
7. (C) THOUGH YUDHOYONO'S PRAYERS FOR DIVINE INTERVENTION ARE 
HEARTWARMING AND NO DOUBT GENUINE, THIS MAY BE A CASE OF 
ACEH'S BEING TOO FAR FROM GOD AND TOO CLOSE TO INDONESIA.  WE 
STILL REGARD A MILITARY OFFENSIVE AS NEARLY INEVITABLE.  ONLY 
A DRAMATIC GESTURE BY THE GAM TO ACCEPT SPECIAL AUTONOMY AND 
TURN IN ITS WEAPONS ON JAKARTA'S TERMS, WHICH APPEARS 
UNLIKELY, COULD FORESTALL THE GOI'S RETURN TO A MILITARY 
OPERATION IN ACEH.  THAT BEING SAID, WHEN THE STAKES ARE THIS 
HIGH, LONG SHOTS ARE WORTH PURSUING, ESPECIALLY IF HEAVEN MAY 
LEND A HAND. 
 
 
BOYCE 

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