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| Identifier: | 03JAKARTA5111 |
|---|---|
| Wikileaks: | View 03JAKARTA5111 at Wikileaks.org |
| Origin: | Embassy Jakarta |
| Created: | 2003-05-09 13:45:00 |
| Classification: | CONFIDENTIAL |
| Tags: | PREL PHUM PGOV ID |
| Redacted: | This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks. |
O 091345Z MAY 03 FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3829 INFO ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM PRIORITY AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ATHENS PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 005111 NSC FOR HADLEY, MORIARTY, BROOKS STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY, EAP SECDEF FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY WOLFOWITZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2013 TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PGOV, ID SUBJECT: ACEH: YUDHOYONO HOPES FOR "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" 1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TED LYNG FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 2. (C) SUMMARY. MINISTER YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR MAY 9 THAT HE HOPED FOR THE "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" TO SAVE THE ACEH PEACE PROCESS. YUDHOYONO SAID THE WINDOW IS STILL OPEN FOR DIALOGUE AND HE PRAYS FOR A BREAKTHROUGH. THE AMBASSADOR LOBBIED YUDHOYONO TO POSTPONE THE WITHDRAWAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONITORS AND TO RECONSIDER THE ARREST OF THREE GAM JOINT SECURITY COMMITTEE (JSC) NEGOTIATORS. YUDHOYONO'S REMARKS ARE ENCOURAGING BUT, SHORT OF GAM'S CAPITULATION, WE VIEW A RENEWED MILITARY OFFENSIVE AS NEARLY INEVITABLE. END SUMMARY. HAND OF GOD? ------------ 3. (C) COORDINATING MINISTER FOR POLITICAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR MAY 9 THAT HE HOPED FOR "AN INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" TO SAVE THE ACEH PEACE PROCESS. YUDHOYONO SAID THAT THE WINDOW FOR A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION REMAINED OPEN. HE NOTED THAT PRESIDENT MEGAWATI HAD ENDORSED THE EFFORT OF A GROUP OF ACEHNESE PARLIAMENTARIANS TO LOBBY GAM TO BE FLEXIBLE. YUDHOYONO INFERRED FROM THE PRESIDENT'S ENDORSEMENT OF THIS EFFORT THAT THERE WAS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT RENEWED MILITARY OPERATIONS COULD BE AVOIDED. YUDHOYONO SAID HE PRAYED FOR A BREAKTHROUGH. YUDHOYONO PUSHES ZINNI MISSION ------------------------------ 4. (C) YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE HAD PRAISED THE ZINNI MISSION TO STOCKHOLM WITH PRESIDENT MEGAWATI. HE WENT ON TO TELL HER THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE U.S., JAPAN AND EU HAVE "ALWAYS BEEN THERE FOR INDONESIA." HE DID NOT DESCRIBE MEGAWATI'S REACTION. AMBASSADOR PRESSES ON WITHDRAWAL, ARRESTS ----------------------------------------- 5. (C) THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS THAT THE CENTRE FOR HUMANITARIAN DIALOGUE (HDC), WHICH HAS BEEN BROKERING THE ACEH PEACE AGREEMENT, WAS RECEIVING ABOUT THE WITHDRAWAL OF JSC INTERNATIONAL MONITORS. YUDHOYONO SAID HIS OFFICE WAS PREPARING A LETTER INSTRUCTING HDC TO WITHDRAW ALL INTERNATIONAL STAFF ON SUNDAY, MAY 11. THE AMBASSADOR PRESSED YUDHOYONO TO POSTPONE THE WITHDRAWAL UNTIL THE RESULTS OF THE ZINNI MISSION COULD BE ABSORBED, STRESSING THAT EVEN THE GOI'S OWN DEADLINE EXTENDED UNTIL MAY 12. YUDHOYONO REPLIED THAT THE AMBASSADOR'S REQUEST SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND PROMISED TO SEE WHAT COULD BE DONE TO ACCOMMODATE IT. YUDHOYONO ADDED THAT HDC STAFF NOT PART OF THE FORMAL JSC STRUCTURE COULD STAY "FOR A FEW DAYS" OR MAYBE LONGER. (NOTE: WE LATER RECEIVED A REPORT THAT YUDHOYONO'S OFFICE IN FACT SENT THE LETTER INSTRUCTING HDC TO WITHDRAW ON SUNDAY. AS OF 1930 THE SITUATION WAS STILL UNCLEAR. END NOTE.) 6. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED THE COORDINATING MINISTER IF HE WAS AWARE OF THE MAY 9 ARRESTS OF THREE OF FIVE GAM REPRESENTATIVES TO THE JSC'S BANDA ACEH HEADQUARTERS, TEUNGKU KAMARRUZAMAN, AMRI, AND AMNI. YUDHOYONO ACKNOWLEDGED THE ARRESTS AND NOTED THAT THE THREE MAY HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO DEPART INDONESIA WITHOUT THE PROPER DOCUMENTATION. THE AMBASSADOR REMINDED YUDHOYONO THAT THE COHA REMAINED IN EFFECT AND THAT DETAINING THE THREE WOULD SEND A NEGATIVE SIGNAL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THE AMBASSADOR URGED THE GOI TO RELEASE THREE ARRESTED GAM MEMBERS. YUDHOYONO SAID THAT HE WOULD LOOK INTO THE MATTER AND ENSURE THE THREE WERE TREATED STRICTLY ACCORDING TO LAW. COMMENT: DIVINE INTERVENTION? ----------------------------- 7. (C) THOUGH YUDHOYONO'S PRAYERS FOR DIVINE INTERVENTION ARE HEARTWARMING AND NO DOUBT GENUINE, THIS MAY BE A CASE OF ACEH'S BEING TOO FAR FROM GOD AND TOO CLOSE TO INDONESIA. WE STILL REGARD A MILITARY OFFENSIVE AS NEARLY INEVITABLE. ONLY A DRAMATIC GESTURE BY THE GAM TO ACCEPT SPECIAL AUTONOMY AND TURN IN ITS WEAPONS ON JAKARTA'S TERMS, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY, COULD FORESTALL THE GOI'S RETURN TO A MILITARY OPERATION IN ACEH. THAT BEING SAID, WHEN THE STAKES ARE THIS HIGH, LONG SHOTS ARE WORTH PURSUING, ESPECIALLY IF HEAVEN MAY LEND A HAND. BOYCE
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