US embassy cable - 95TELAVIV17508

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 017508 
 
 
DEPARTMENT PASS TO SECRETARY'S PARTY 
 
E.O.  12958:  DECL:  11/05/05 
TAGS:  PREL, PGOV, XF, IS 
SUBJECT:  A BLACK DAY FOR THE JEWISH NATION 
 
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.  CLASSIFIED BY RICHARD ERDMAN, 
POL/C, PER SECTIONS 1.5(B) AND (D). 
 
2. NEWS OF RABIN'S ASSASSINATION HAS LEFT ISRAELIS DAZED, 
STUNNED, ANXIOUS, AND IN SHOCK.  THE FULL IMPACT HAS YET TO SINK 
IN, OF COURSE.  BUT GIVEN RABIN'S CENTRAL ROLE IN VIRTUALLY EVERY 
PHASE OF ISRAEL'S POLITICAL LIFE SINCE ITS CREATION, THE 
PYSCHOLOGICAL, HISTORICAL, AND NATIONAL IMPACT IS BEING COMPARED 
TO THAT FOLLOWING PRESIDENT KENNEDY'S ASSASSINATION.  AS ONE 
CONTACT PUT IT, THE OVERWHELMING SENSE OF SADNESS GOES FAR BEYOND 
RABIN THE MAN; IT GOES TO THE HEART OF WHAT ISRAEL IS ALL ABOUT. 
THERE IS THE SENSE THAT ISRAEL HAS LOST WHATEVER WAS LEFT OF ITS 
ORGINAL INNOCENCE, ITS YOUTH, ITS SENSE OF INTIMACY AND 
CONNECTEDNESS IN A SHARED FATE.  IN A WORD,  ALL THE THINGS THAT 
HAVE MADE ISRAEL UNIQUE IN THE EYES OF ITS PEOPLE. 
 
3.  THAT RABIN WAS GUNNED DOWN BY A LONE ASSASSIN AS HE LEFT 
PERHAPS THE LARGEST PEACE RALLY IN TEL AVIV HISTORY HAS MADE THE 
SITUATION ALL THE MORE POIGNANT.  SOME 120,000-150,000 ISRAELIS-- 
JOINED BY GOVERNMENT MINISTERS, KNESSET MEMBERS, AND AMBASSADORS 
FROM EGYPT, JORDAN AND MOROCCO--HAD GATHERED IN THE CITY CENTER 
TO EXPRESS THEIR SUPPORT FOR PEACE AND FOR RABIN'S EFFORTS TO 
ACHIEVE IT.  THE GUNSHOTS THAT FELLED HIM AND THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF 
HIS DEATH ABOUT AN HOUR LATER TURNED A MASSIVE, JOYOUS EVENT INTO 
A NATIONAL NIGHTMARE. 
 
4.  THE ASSASSINATION, THE FIRST EVER IN THE FORTY-SEVEN YEAR 
HISTORY OF ISRAEL, IS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM AS 
AN ASSAULT ON ISRAELI DEMOCRACY AND AS A STERN REMINDER THAT 
FRATERNAL VIOLENCE MUST BE CHECKED, LEST IT SPLINTER THE NATION 
AS IT HAS IN THE PAST.  ILLUSTRATIVELY, THE JERUSALEM POST, NO 
FRIEND OF RABIN OR OSLO II, EDITORIALIZED THIS MORNING THAT 
"NOTHING, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, IS A GREATER BLOW TO THE LIFE OF 
THE JEWISH NATION THAN FRATERNAL VIOLENCE, AND NOTHING MAKES SUCH 
VIOLENCE MORE THREATENING TO THE NATION'S FUTURE THAN THE 
ASSASSINATION OF THE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT."  ISRAEL'S FATE, THE 
COMMENTARY CONTINUES, DEPENDS ON ISRAELIS UNITING, DESPITE THEIR 
POLITICAL DIFFERENCES, TO UTTERLY REJECT VIOLENCE BETWEEN JEWS. 
 
5.  A KEY POLLSTER WHO HAS DONE EXTENSIVE PRIVATE POLLING FOR 
RABIN OVER THE YEARS DESCRIBED THE ASSASSINATION TO US AS THE 
"PEAK OF THE POLARIZATION OF ISRAELI SOCIETY IN THE LAST DECADE." 
NO ONE EXPECTED IT TO GO THIS FAR, BUT THERE IS A CLEAR SENSE 
THAT A LINE HAS BEEN CROSSED, THAT THE PEACE PROCESS MUST NOT 
STOP, AND THAT VIOLENCE AT ANY LEVEL CANNOT AND MUST NOT BE 
ACCEPTED. 
 
6.  ACCORDING TO BOTH THIS AND OTHER CONTACTS, RABIN'S 
ASSASSINATION WILL WAKE UP THE MODERATE RIGHT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE 
PEACE PROCESS BUT HAS DOUBTS ABOUT OSLO II.  AT THE SAME TIME, 
PRESSURES WILL GROW TO JOIN RANKS AT A TIME OF NATIONAL CRISIS. 
TOLERANCE FOR THE KIND OF UNCIVIL AND VIOLENT BEHAVIOR AND 
RHETORIC THAT HAVE MARKED THE PAST FEW MONTHS WILL BE SHARPLY 
REDUCED.  THE RIGHT, FACED WITH AN UPWELLING OF PUBLIC SUPPORT 
FOR UNITY IN TIME OF NATIONAL CRISIS, WILL BE FORCED TO MODERATE 
ITS OPPOSITION.  AND THE SECULAR AND RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES, 
HAVING LOOKED DOWN THE ABYSS OF FRATRICIDAL JEWISH STRIFE, WILL 
BE UNDER INCREASED PRESSURE TO FIND A WAY TO LIVE TOGETHER WITH 
GREATER MUTUAL TOLERATION AND RESPECT, DESPITE THEIR ENORMOUS 
DIFFERENCES. 
 
7.  IN THIS ANALYSIS--WHICH WE THINK IS CLOSE TO THE MARK--THE 
MODERATE RIGHT WILL BE CRITICAL TO EFFORTS TO STEM POLARIZATION 
OVER THE PEACE PROCESS AND TO BRIDGE THE GAPS BETWEEN THE LEFT 
AND RIGHT.  IF THESE MODERATES DECIDE THAT THEIR SIDE--THE RIGHT- 
-HAS HELPED BRING ON A NATIONAL CRISIS BY TAKING ITS OPPOSITION 
TOO FAR, THERE COULD BE A BACKLASH.  THE SETTLERS COUNCIL'S 
ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY THAT IT WILL CEASE ITS ACTIVE RESISTANCE TO 
THE GOVERNMENT CENSUS MAY BE AN EARLY SIGN OF THE KIND OF 
MODERATING PRESSURES THAT WILL BE AT WORK.  OPPOSITION LEADER 
NETANYAHU'S SUPPORT THIS MORNING IN THE KNESSET FOR LABOR TO FORM 
THE NEXT GOVERNMENT, AND HIS PRIVATELY EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE 
PUBLIC WILL HOLD LIKUD RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTRIBUTING TO AN 
ATMOSPHERE IN WHICH SUCH A TRAGIC EVENT COULD TAKE PLACE, MAY BE 
A FURTHER INDICATION.  WHATEVER THE CASE, MOST PEOPLE WE HAVE 
SPOKEN WITH ARE CONVINCED THAT LABOR WILL BENEFIT FROM AN 
OUTPOURING OF SYMPATHY AND SUPPORT AS WELL AS THE PUBLIC'S 
PREFERENCE TO GO WITH THE DEVIL THEY KNOW. 
 
8. WITH THE NATION IN SHOCK AND MOURNING, ISRAELIS ARE NOT YET 
FOCUSSING MUCH ON LONGER TERM POLITICAL SUCCESSION ISSUES.  FOR 
THOSE WHO ARE, A KEY QUESTION IS WHO CAN BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN 
LEFT AND RIGHT.  FOR ALL THE CONTROVERSY SURROUNDING HIS PEACE 
POLICIES AND OUTSPOKENESS, RABIN TO SOME EXTENT BRIDGED THAT 
LEFT-RIGHT DIVIDE AND WAS NEVER SEEN AS A MAN ONLY OF THE LEFT. 
PERES, DESPITE HIS IMPROVING PUBLIC IMAGE IN RECENT MONTHS, BY 
CONTRAST IS WIDELY IDENTIFIED AS A MAN OF THE LEFT AND DISTRUSTED 
BY MANY ON THE RIGHT.  BOTH IN HIS TRANSITION ROLE AND AS PRIME 
MINISTER, SHOULD HE BE ASKED TO FORM A NEW GOVERNMENT, A KEY 
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER PERES CAN BOTH CARRY THE LABOR BLOC AS 
WELL AS BRING ALONG THE CRUCIAL CENTER AND CENTER-RIGHT. IN THIS 
REGARD, THERE IS SPECULATION THAT POPULAR LABOR FEDERATION LEADER 
AND KNESSET MEMBER HAIM RAMON, WHO HAS A MORE CENTRIST POLITICAL 
IMAGE, WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN ATTRACTING THE MODERATE RIGHT, 
BROADENING THE GOVERNMENT'S BASE, AND MODERATING THE LEFT-RIGHT 
DIVIDE. 
 
 
INDYK