US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA1172

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001172 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
HARARE FOR BRUCE WHARTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, GT 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANT BERGER LEAVES THE PAN, 
ACCEPTS CANDIDACY OF COALITION 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Presidential front-runner Oscar Berger 
announced on May 1 that he was leaving the National Action 
Party (PAN) to head a coalition of three smaller parties. 
Berger broke with the PAN after internal tensions erupted 
April 30 when the PAN Executive Committee (controlled by his 
rival Leonel Lopez) voted to no longer support Berger as its 
presidential candidate after he discussed forming an 
electoral alliance without party permission.  Berger,s exit 
from the PAN, while not unexpected, adds a new wrinkle to the 
already muddled presidential race.  As other parties regroup, 
the ruling Guatemalan National Front, headed by Efrain Rios 
Montt, hopes to benefit from splits in the opposition.  End 
Summary. 
 
Berger Candidacy Still Afloat 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Oscar Berger, who won the PAN presidential primary 
in October, 2002, announced on May 1 that he would be the 
presidential candidate for a coalition of political parties 
currently made up of Otto Perez Molina,s Patriotic Party 
(PP), Jorge Briz,s  Reform Movement (MR) and Ricardo 
Castillo Sinebali,s National Solidarity Party (PSN).  Berger 
had been wooing the coalation ever since differences (largely 
over patronage) between him and PAN Executive Secretary 
Leonel Lopez became increasingly unsolvable and threatened to 
marr the upcoming election.  When it became apparent that 
there was no conciliation in sight, Berger announced in late 
April that he would accept the support of the coalition, 
which goes by the initials GANA, provoking the PAN Executive 
Committee to announce on April 30 that Berger's decision 
effectively annulled his candidacy as the PAN's presidential 
hopeful.  That was the final straw for Berger, who withdrew 
from the PAN and began openly campaigning for the GANA.  In a 
campaign stop in the Department of Solola on May 3, Berger 
rallied local PAN members to vote for him.  He received the 
support of the local PAN leadership, that has now switched to 
his GANA coalition.  Berger hopes to woo away significant 
support from PAN voters who voted for him in the primaries. 
 
PAN's Prospects Sinking 
----------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Without Berger, who, despite a massive loss to 
President Portillo in 1999 consistently registers the highest 
poll numbers, the PAN enters the exclusive control of its 
Secretary General, Leonel Lopez Rodas.  It was Rodas who lost 
 
SIPDIS 
the PAN primary to Berger.  After apparently patching things 
up, Rodas and his allies strongly objected to Berger,s 
naming Gonzalez as his preferred running-mate.  Rodas seized 
Berger,s discussions about forming an alliance with other 
parties (without party approval) as the pretext for his 
ouster.  Thus far, the PAN has not announced a replacement 
candidate for Berger. 
 
Other groups GANA-bound? 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) The GANA coalition is in discussion with other 
small parties, including the divided leftist New National 
Alliance (ANN), which desperately needs financial support. 
The Unionista Party, led by former ministers under the Arzu 
Administration who split from the PAN in 2000, is currently 
keeping its distance from GANA, though we understand that 
there have been serious talks of an ultimate union. Christian 
Democratic Party (DCG) candidate Ricardo Bueso has launched a 
media blitz to raise his name recognition without much 
success, raising speculation that the DCG and its electoral 
partner, the Democratic Union party (UD) may also eventually 
join the GANA coalition. 
 
Opposition Holdouts 
------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Meanwhile, the leftist URNG has pledged to stay 
away from alliances this election, after suffering disastrous 
results in previous electoral coalitions.  Alvaro Colom is 
flirting with the PAN, after rejecting the GANA coalition and 
the earlier offer of the PAN vice presidential nomination 
under Berger.  The ANN is considering throwing its support to 
Alvaro Colom or Rigoberto Queme, the first indigenous 
presidential aspirant heading the Solidarity Movement 
alliance of civic committees, which has not yet been 
officially registered in the race.  Jacobo Arbenz Villanova, 
son of the late president ousted by the 1954 U.S.-supported 
coup, is another long-shot candidate (for the Democratic 
Social Participation Party-PDSP) who has chosen to avoid 
electoral alliances. 
 
Boost to the FRG 
---------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The FRG has the most to gain from the split-up of 
the PAN, though many analysts do not believe the large gap in 
the polls between Berger and Rios Montt will narrow much as a 
result.  The ruling FRG,s electoral possibilities could 
suffer if the GANA coalition gains further strength by 
uniting the opposition.  At present the FRG will hold its 
national assembly (postponed from May 3 to May 24), at which 
it will name its presidential candidate.  Conventional wisdom 
is that President of Congress Rios Montt will be selected as 
its presidential candidate, and Agriculture Minister Edin 
Barrientos as his running mate.  Should the FRG choose Rios 
Montt to head its ticket, we expect there will be challenges 
filed before the Constitutional Court. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Berger,s split with the PAN reflects the 
institutional weakness of Guatemalan political parties, and 
could give a momentary boost to the FRG by dividing the 
opposition.  The split further reflects the pique and poor 
political judgment of both Berger and Lopez Rodas, neither of 
whom was prepared to make the concessions on patronage 
necessary to keep the party together.  Berger and the GANA 
coalition have better prospects than the PAN to recover from 
this setback, since Berger,s financial supporters apparently 
still view him as the most likely prospect to unseat the FRG. 
 Considerable polling indicates that Berger has better 
positive name recognition than anyone else in the PAN party. 
Attracting and holding a diverse coalition together, however, 
will be difficult for Berger. 
HAMILTON