US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU814

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000814 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  PM'S ADDRESS RILES PARTIES; TURNOUT IN 
MASS ANTI-GOVERNMENT RALLY UNIMPRESSIVE 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 0620 
 
Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Leaders of most mainstream political parties reacted 
negatively to a May 2 televised address by Prime Minister 
Lokendra Bahadur Chand, focusing on his criticism of their 
behavior, rather than on his offer to step down for the good 
of the nation.  So far, however, the parties' efforts to 
ignite popular ire against the PM have failed, as evidenced 
by the anemic turnout at a much-hyped multi-party rally in 
Kathmandu on May 4.  The next move, apparently, is up to King 
Gyanendra.  It remains unclear whether the King will invite 
political leaders to form an all-party government to replace 
Chand, or whether the low turnout at yesterday's rally will 
embolden him to keep the parties at arm's length for now. 
End summary. 
 
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PARTIES BRISTLE AT PM'S ADDRESS 
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2.  (U) Leaders of most political parties reacted with 
indignation and anger to a May 2 televised public address by 
Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand, in which he criticized 
the parties for "fomenting trouble at a time when the 
government and Maoists are engaged in a peace process" and 
blamed them for most of the troubles now plaguing the 
country.  (Note:  The exception to the chorus of disapproval 
was the National Democratic Party, of which the PM is a 
member.  End note.)  In the address, which preceded by two 
days a May 4 multi-partisan rally in Kathmandu to protest his 
"illegal" interim government, the PM also offered to step 
down "if anyone (else) will guarantee lasting peace, security 
and welfare" in the country. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Many observers had expected the PM's address to 
strike a conciliatory chord, defusing the parties' much-hyped 
protest planned for May 4 by offering them an opening to 
participate in a new government.  Instead, political leaders 
cited the PM's criticism of the parties as further 
justification for their "joint agitation campaign." 
 
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TURNOUT TEPID; 
MAOISTS, KOREAN JOB FAIR DRAW MORE 
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4.  (SBU)  Despite its near-hysterical build-up (one leader 
had predicted the protest would be like "nothing else" seen 
in the history of Nepal), and despite good weekend weather, 
the May 4 protest rally drew a comparatively tepid turnout, 
estimated at about 14,000.  Crowds at the rally, which was 
sponsored by five Parliamentary parties, were dwarfed by the 
April 3 turnout at a Maoist rally in Kathmandu (est. at 
20,000); and just topped the numbers at a May 4 Maoist rally 
in the remote southwestern district of Dang (est. at 10,000); 
and applicants who turned up at a May 4 Korean job fair in 
Kathmandu (est. at more than 10,000).  Although organizers 
had reportedly bussed in workers for the five parties (the 
Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal - United 
Marxist Leninist, People's Front Nepal, the Peasants and 
Workers Party, and one faction of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party) 
from districts across the country, the mood of much of the 
crowd was muted, if not somewhat disengaged and apathetic, 
according to one observer, with the leaders' fiery rhetoric 
eliciting only scattered applause and little cheering. 
Outside the rally venue, business continued as usual on a 
Sunday afternoon in Kathmandu, with surprisingly little 
disruption to traffic and, unlike the Maoists' April 3 rally 
(Reftel), attracting comparatively few curiosity seekers. 
 
5.  (U)  At the rally party leaders blasted King Gyanendra 
for his "regressive move" of last October, when he appointed 
an interim non-party government, instead of an all-party 
government with full executive powers.  The protest, 
according to the organizers, was aimed at restoring the 
sovereignty to the people that they claim was usurped by the 
King's action, as well as at ensuring the success of ongoing 
peace talks between the Government and Maoist insurgents. 
Nepali Congress President G.P. Koirala and UML General 
Secretary Madhav Nepal, who head the two largest political 
 
SIPDIS 
parties, issued apocalyptic public warnings to the King, 
warning him their agitation campaign will force him to choose 
between parliamentary democracy with a constitutional 
monarchy, or a republic with no monarch at all. 
Conspicuously absent from the reported public remarks of each 
leader was any call to reschedule long-delayed national 
elections, or any intimation of a party platform as 
preparation for those elections.  Apparently undaunted by the 
disappointing turnout, rally organizers have announced a list 
of follow-up events.  The program includes 20 minutes of 
silence on May 8, a nationwide black-flag rally on May 9, 
burning effigies representing "regression" on May 10, 
torchlight rallies on May 11, black-outs nationwide on May 
12, and a campaign to stop government vehicles on the roads 
from May 13-14. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C) It is telling that the five democratic leaders, 
self-described champions of democracy, focused their public 
demands on being appointed to an interim Cabinet of 
unspecified tenure--in much the same way that the Chand 
government they decry as "illegal" was appointed.  Kathmandu 
political insiders, including party leaders themselves, 
expected the PM's May 2 address to presage his resignation, 
opening the door for the King to invite nominations for a new 
all-party interim government.  Nepali Congress President 
Koirala and UML General Secretary Nepal indicated to the 
Ambasador just hours before the PM's speech that well-placed 
Palace sources had led them to believe that the King was now 
ready to make that overture.  (We had been given to 
understand much the same.)  Having already touted their May 4 
rally as a massive protest against the Chand government, the 
parties were unlikely to allow anything short of the PM's 
actual resignation to derail it.  That said, Chand's 
accusatory tone managed to stoke, rather than help defuse, 
partisan ire, making any future accommodation more difficult. 
 The disappointing turnout at the rally may embolden 
hardliners within the Palace to try to dissuade the King from 
accommodating the parties in a modified Cabinet.  That would 
be a mistake, especially given the not-so tacit assurances 
Palace emissaries apparently conveyed to party leaders of a 
different outcome.  If the King backtracks now, he could 
further damage his credibility with party leaders who feel, 
rightly or wrongly, misled by him after they agreed to accept 
Chand as PM last October.  Moreover, with negotiations now 
underway with the Maoists, the King must move sooner rather 
than later to ensure the support of political parties for any 
settlement reached between the Government and the insurgents. 
 We will continue to press both the Palace and the parties 
for an accommodation that will unite legal, pro-democratic 
forces against the Maoists. 
MALINOWSKI