US embassy cable - 03ABUJA817

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000817 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR POL - J. MAXSTADT 
 
 
DECL: 05/03/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EPET, PINS, MOPS, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA - SSS DIRECTOR ON THE ELECTION AND 
THE SITUATION IN WARRI 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reasons 1.5 
(b) and (d). 
 
 
1. (C) During an April 30 meeting with Ambassador 
Jeter, the Director General of the State Security 
Service (SSS) Kayode Are said that all political 
parties had committed electoral fraud.  He also 
asserted that the outcome of the Presidential contest 
was a genuine reflection of the actual vote, albeit 
the margin of victory may have been inflated. 
However, Are acknowledged that the results of some 
gubernatorial and National Assembly contests were 
egregious.  Overall, Are thought the elections were 
adequate under current circumstances but stated that 
Nigeria will have to experience several iterations 
before nailing down the process of conducting 
elections properly. 
 
 
2.  (C) Are stated that a political party manipulated 
the results in areas where it was in control.  While 
most of the outcry was against the PDP for alleged 
fraud, Are claimed receiving credible reports of 
significant electoral manipulation by the ANPP in 
several Northern states.  He acknowledged misconduct 
in the South-South had been too brazen; voter turnouts 
were too astronomical to believe.  However, that was 
nothing new in the riverine areas.  In every previous 
election, the South-South has always produced grossly 
exaggerated figures.  In actuality, most communities 
in that area did not hold elections.  Community 
leaders would simply assembly and decide how to 
allocate the community's votes. 
 
 
3.  (C) Turning his attention to press reports of the 
house arrest of ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu 
Buhari, Are said the reports were false.  At no time 
was Buhari's freedom of movement abridged.  Instead, 
the police stopped the ANPP from holding political 
rallies in Katsina State because the party had not 
applied for the required permits.  Are commented that 
the ANPP was trying to provoke an encounter with the 
police by holding a rally without a permit.  However, 
the police had been instructed not use force to quash 
the rally.  Are conjectured that the report of 
Buhari's house arrest was of the same family of 
inaccuracies - an intentional fabrication meant to 
incite anger and perhaps violence. 
 
 
----------------------------- 
THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON WARRI 
----------------------------- 
 
 
4.  (C) Are said that the use of military force 
against Ijaw militants in Warri was more a question of 
"when" not "if."  His advice had been to commence 
action prior to the May 29 inauguration but some 
political advisors of the President were counseling to 
wait after the inauguration.  Are also mentioned that 
the GON had felt hamstrung in dealing with the crisis 
due to the Ambassador's recent advice to the President 
not to repeat in Warria what had happened in Odi and 
Benue. However, at the end of the day, the GON 
realized that it had to act or else relinquish control 
of that strategic area around Warri to the reckless 
Ijaw militants. 
 
 
JETER