US embassy cable - 03ABUJA815

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000815 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO FOLLOWS THROUGH -- ASKS 
INEC TO PROBE ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES 
 
REF: FRAZER-JETER TELCONS 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 
(b) and (d). 
 
 
1. (C) Per Ref telcons, Ambassador Jeter told Special 
Presidential Advisor for International Affairs Ad'obe 
Obe that President Obasanjo needed to take the high 
road by acknowledging that there had been serious 
allegations of material electoral manipulation. We 
also conveyed to Obe that Washington would look 
favorably on a public statement from Obasanjo 
requesting that INEC actively and impartially 
investigate allegations of significant electoral 
misconduct. Obasanjo has delivered on these requests. 
 
 
2. (C) Local newspapers reported May 1 that President 
Obasanjo wrote a letter to Independent National 
Electoral Commission Chairman Abel Guobadia. In that 
letter, the President cited the Commonwealth Observer 
report on the elections, which the letter described as 
"fair and commendatory to INEC and the Federal 
Government."  (Comment: The Commonwealth Report was 
the most favorable and offered the mildest criticism 
of all the reports from the international monitoring 
teams. End Comment) 
 
 
3. (SBU) Nevertheless, the President's letter 
mentioned that the Commonwealth team saw widespread 
irregularities in certain areas, such as parts of 
Enugu and Rivers states.  The letter also drew 
attention to the conclusion of the Commonwealth Report 
that there were areas where "elections did not take 
place." The letter asked INEC to investigate these 
allegations and report its findings to President 
Obasanjo. 
 
 
4. (C) While Obasanjo's letter to INEC could have been 
stronger, he has done what we asked.  At this point, 
we should send a congratulatory message to Obasanjo. 
We gain nothing by putting this off, especially since 
many Heads of State have now publicly congratulated 
Obasanjo, including a congratulatory call from Prime 
Minister Tony Blair earlier this week. 
 
 
5. (C) Obasanjo followed our advice at some political 
risks to himself.  Already, the ANPP and 15 other 
political parties are saying that Obasanjo's letter to 
INEC has vindicated their charges of "rigging."  A 
congratulatory message from President Bush may make 
Obasanjo feel more secure and thus more comfortable. 
If so, he would be more amenable to entering political 
discussions with key opposition parties that may be 
needed in order to calm the tensions created by the 
elections and their disputed results, especially over 
some gubernatorial and numerous National Assembly 
seats. 
 
 
6. (C) Comment: Some Nigerians will be pleased that 
Obasanjo wrote this letter. Others will view it 
cynically, choosing to believe that Obasanjo merely 
wants to effect a veneer of probity.  Others will 
point out that Obasanjo eagerly embraced the 
Commonwealth report because it is the most forgiving 
of the international observer accounts.  They believe 
the baseline created by the Commonwealth report is too 
low; any investigation that tracks the Commonwealth 
report will be too modest to adequately address the 
irregularities that occurred. 
 
 
7. (C) Comment Cont: At this difficult moment, a lot 
of people are testy, including Obasanjo.  Few people 
want to move from their hard-line positions and no one 
wants to be the first to concede. However, with the 
letter, Obasanjo has taken a positive step by 
implicitly acknowledging electoral malfeasance in some 
areas that might have changed the outcome of some 
National Assembly and gubernatorial races.  Before 
this post-election period is over, he will likely need 
to take a few more such steps.  We can perhaps 
encourage him in this but only if he knows that we 
have accepted his victory. Thus, a congratulatory 
message from Washington in the form of a letter from 
President Bush would be timely and useful. 
 
 
JETER