US embassy cable - 03ABUJA808

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000808 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR JFRASER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  BUHARI NOT READY TO CONCEDE 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  In a late night meeting with Ambassador 
on April 23, ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari 
restated his rejection of the just completed Presidential, 
Gubernatorial and National Assembly elections.  He said he 
lost because the PDP stole the election.  He reiterated his 
position that new elections were necessary and that no 
legitimate government would exist in Nigeria after May 29. 
He stressed that the only thing he wanted was "an 
opportunity for Nigerians to choose their government 
through free, fair and transparent elections."  Buhari 
asserted that he would adhere to whatever decision the ANPP 
made on contesting the election, saying that he was a 
"prisoner of the party."  However, he expressed little 
confidence in the efficacy of the electoral tribunals to 
redress the deficiencies of the elections.  Because of the 
patent electoral irregularities in many areas, Buhari has 
been trying to sculpt himself into the role of "guardian of 
democracy."  Given Buhari's coupist past, and less than 
sterling reputation on human rights, this new role is laden 
with irony but Buhari seems intent to play it to the hilt. 
However, we do not think it will stick.  Nevertheless, 
Buhari will try to galvanize the opposition and public to 
reject the elections.  While his efforts will likely prove 
quixotic, he remains a compelling figure who will demand 
attention and probably keep tension high, at least in the 
short-term.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
BUHARI'S STAND 
-------------- 
 
 
2. (C)  In a late night meeting with Ambassador Jeter on 
April 23, ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari 
restated his stand on the Presidential, Gubernatorial and 
National Assembly elections.  He asserted that elections 
did not take place in at least 13 of Nigeria's 36 states. 
Results from these areas were tantamount to forgeries, he 
continued.  Since the elections did not hold in these 
areas, INEC could not have legally declared Obasanjo victor 
as he would have been unable to satisfy the geographical 
requirement of winning 25 percent of the vote in 25 states. 
 
 
3.  (C)  Buhari attributed his defeat to alleged fraudulent 
manipulation of the electoral process by the incumbent PDP 
and partisan INEC commissioners.  Buhari maintained that 
the PDP used various methods to skew the April 12 and the 
April 19 polls, including ballot box-stuffing, intimidation 
of voters, the fraudulent registration process and outright 
manufacturing of election results.  The ANPP had noted 
these deficiencies in its statements after the April 12 
legislative elections; however, he accused INEC of 
willfully ignoring its critics and continuing with the 
April l9 elections without resolving its deficiencies. 
Buhari maintained his interest in coordinating with other 
aggrieved parties.  According to Buhari, however, APGA 
Presidential Candidate Chukwemeka Ojukwu had initially 
agreed to cooperate.  Buhari said that after he talked to 
APGA about coordination, Ojukwu made a statement asking for 
INEC to clean up the results.  The next day, Ojukwu 
declared himself the winner of the Presidential elections 
so "I do not know what his plans are," said Buhari. 
 
 
4.  (C)  Buhari said the elections in the Southeast and 
South-South were particularly opprobrious, failing to meet 
minimal standards.  He claimed that insufficient 
documentary evidence existed to pursue court cases in many 
states of those two regions because the ersatz results were 
"cooked" at the various INEC headquarters.  No genuine 
polling station or collation center tally sheets were 
completed since no voting ever occurred.  He also cited 
problems in Kaduna, Katsina, Nasarawa, Benue and Adamawa 
states as "serious."  However, Buhari said, in these states 
a semblance of elections took place even though results 
were manipulated in the collation process. In these cases, 
Buhari continued, the ANPP would take individual issues to 
the Elections Tribunals, since documentation of the 
outcomes exists.  He said that the ANPP was compiling its 
evidence and would present it to the Embassy when data 
collection was complete. 
 
 
5.  (C)  Accusing President Obasanjo of complicity in the 
alleged fraud, Buhari stated "I do not believe that the 
President did not know" about the wrongdoing.  Buhari 
claimed the ANPP uncovered ballot boxes in Katsina, Niger, 
Kaduna and Kano states before the Presidential elections. 
He said that security officials at many sites (mostly in 
the Southeast and South-South, but not limited there) fired 
weapons into the air to frighten off voters so the security 
personnel could swipe then stuff the ballot boxes at an 
alternative location. 
 
 
BUHARI'S STRATEGY 
----------------- 
 
 
6.  (C)  Buhari, while stopping short of declaring his 
victory, said that elections were so flawed that, after the 
May 29 inauguration, "no legitimate government would exist" 
in Nigeria.  He has said that his followers should not 
"recognize any government" after May 29 and has called for 
"mass action" in support of his claims.  He has not defined 
what those actions should be and told the Ambassador that 
he was willing to accept the lead of the ANPP in deciding 
his course of action.  The party, however, had yet to 
decide on its course of action as it was still examining 
all its options.  (COMMENT:  Buhari was probably attempting 
to distance himself from the spectre of mass protests 
getting out of hand.  Prior to this meeting, he had been on 
the ramparts leading the call for mass action. However at 
the meeting, he claimed that he was a "prisoner of his 
party" and would simply follow what the party decided -- as 
if he had no voice in this matter.  Instead of being the 
General that he is, Buhari laid the claim that he merely 
was a pliant foot soldier.  We found this disingenuous. 
END COMMENT.) 
 
 
WHAT DOES HE WANT 
----------------- 
 
 
7.  (C)  Buhari rejected the option of the ANPP 
participating in the Obasanjo Administration, complaining 
that such a government would be a sham because Obasanjo 
would simply people it with opportunists from the ANPP and 
other opposition parties.  Asked by the Ambassador if he 
had spoken to Obasanjo, Buhari said that Obasanjo had 
requested a meeting but he had refused.  Buhari stated that 
he was not interested in speaking with Obasanjo, as he 
really had no hope of finding common ground with the 
President so there was no reason to go through the 
pretense.  Ambassador told Buhari that the importance of 
these elections extended beyond Nigeria's borders; the 
elections had implications for peace, stability and the 
rule of law in the region and throughout Africa.  Buhari 
responded that he was aware of Nigeria's importance 
throughout the continent, and stressed that the only thing 
he wanted was "an opportunity for Nigerians to choose their 
government through free, fair and transparent elections." 
Buhari said that he felt trapped by the party, but stated 
flatly that he "could not step down."  "If I were to do 
something other than what my party is telling me, I would 
lose all political credibility," Buhari stated. 
 
 
8.  (C)  COMMENT:  Buhari will continue his clamor for 
repeating the election.  He knows this is highly 
improbable, but it maintains his stature as Obasanjo's 
staunchest national critic and, implicitly, as the champion 
of Northern interests.  Buhari's challenge is whether he 
can unite the opposition parties in a post-election 
campaign to challenge the results.  His martinet 
antecedents and his perceived regional chauvinism will 
crimp this attempt.  Consequently, Buhari will continue to 
make waves and good newsprint; however, unless he can 
galvanize the opposition, especially the APGA and the AD, 
the waves he makes alone and with fellow Northerners 
probably will be insufficient to up-end the election 
results. 
JETER