US embassy cable - 03SANAA955

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000955 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, YM, DEMOCRATIC REFORM, DOMESTIC POLITICS 
SUBJECT: YEMEN,S ELECTION:  CITIZENS BET ON DEMOCRACY 
 
 
1.  (U)  Summary:  The April 27 parliamentary election 
demonstrated significant progress in Yemen's democratic path 
despite some flaws.  Obvious enthusiasm and interest by 
voters in the campaign, including more than 75% turnout on 
election day, indicate a healthy appetite for democracy in 
Yemen.  The preliminary results contain little change, with 
the ruling party maintaining a wide majority of more than 70% 
of the seats.  The Islah party, however, made surprising 
gains in the urban city of Sanaa.  In a region with a noted 
lack of healthy democratic trends, this exercise in democracy 
represents an important example.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Progress on the Road to Democracy 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  Yemen,s third parliamentary election since 
unification represents another milestone in movement towards 
full democracy despite flaws in its election and political 
processes, as noted by the National Democratic Institute 
(NDI) and other political observers (see paragraph 10 below). 
 The campaign period saw a palpable sense of enthusiasm and 
participation, culminating in a huge turnout of 76% of 
registered voters on election day.  With a 40% increase in 
women registered to vote over the last registration, massive 
numbers of women exercised their right to freely choose their 
representatives.  As NDI reports, citizens' "deepening sense 
of democratic entitlement is an important indication of 
Yemen,s progress. . ." 
 
3.  (U)  President Saleh played a constructive and important 
role in encouraging the democratic process.  His comments at 
several press conferences before and during the election made 
several key points that were important for the peaceful 
nature of election day and for setting the tone of democratic 
rights.  He said on April 27, "we have to accept defeat or 
victory with a democratic spirit."  Election day was 
relatively peaceful compared to past elections, owing in part 
to the prominence placed on a "weapons free day."  He also 
made a comparison to Iraq, saying that he did not want 
"99.9%" of the vote for the ruling party, and noted that a 
strong democratic showing would ensure that Yemen was safe 
from actions similar to what happened in Iraq. 
 
-------------------------- 
Results Show Little Change; 
Islah Gains in Urban Areas 
-------------------------- 
 
4.  (U)  The Supreme Commission for Elections and Referenda 
(SCER) announced official results on April 30, under the 
72-hour deadline mandated by election law.  Out of 301 
constituencies, final results are known in 280 while 21 
remain under dispute.  The ruling General People's Congress 
(GPC) garnered an overwhelming majority with 214 seats so 
far, more than 70%.  The opposition Islah party gained 40 
seats (13%), the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) 7 seats (2%), 
and independents and smaller parties 19 seats.  One woman of 
the 11 female candidates won, marking a decrease from the 
last parliament, which had two women. 
 
5.  (U)  The SCER did not give specific details about the 
problems holding up the disputed constituencies but noted 
that some might require by-elections.  Observers note that 
these constituencies face problems such as counting 
commissioners who refuse to complete the count and stolen 
ballot boxes. 
 
6.  (U)  Many observers were surprised that the opposition 
parties, particularly Islah, did not do better in the 
election.  During the campaign, it appeared that the 
opposition parties would increase their seats, particularly 
Islah.  However, only in Sanaa city did Islah make noticeable 
gains, increasing their number from one to over half of the 
constituencies.  This result in a major urban area surprised 
many because Islah's strongholds tend to be in traditional 
tribal areas.  Some observers were shocked as well that the 
Islah won in what is called the "unity constituency," where 
President Saleh votes and where his son last held the seat. 
While difficult to confirm, some observers believe that fraud 
and political intimidation did effect the outcome of the 
election in GPC's favor in some constituencies outside of 
Sanaa. 
 
7.  (U)  Political observers believe that Islah's gains in 
Sanaa were a result of dissatisfaction with the government, 
Islah's message of change resonating with voters, a 
well-organized campaign and poor GPC candidate selection. 
 
--------------- 
Campaign Issues 
--------------- 
 
8.  (U)  "Bread and butter" issues dominated the election, 
with economic and law and order issues prevalent. 
Anti-corruption and anti-government messages were popular 
among opposition parties.  Although observers had thought 
that the war in Iraq and ongoing U.S.-Yemeni counterterrorism 
cooperation would become big issues, the fall of Baghdad 
three weeks before election day largely diminished the issue. 
 As one Yemeni observer said, "when people are hungry, they 
don't care about foreign policy." 
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Comment 
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9.  (U)  While far from perfect, these elections demonstrated 
an entrenchment of political rights by Yemeni citizens that 
sets an example for future democratic trends in the region. 
The flaws in the process must be vigorously addressed before 
the next election in 2006, with the help of the international 
community, to avoid backsliding in Yemen's democratic 
progress. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
NDI Report:  Significant Step Forward Despite Flaws 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
10.  (U)  As NDI described in its preliminary statement on 
April 29, both positive and negative developments 
characterized the elections.  The full report, with specific 
examples and anecdotal evidence, was sent to NEA/ARP and is 
also available at www.ndi.org.  The positive developments 
include: 
 
-- a relatively peaceful election, with fewer injuries and 
deaths due to violent clashes than in previous elections; 
 
-- full participation by all major political parties allowing 
for increased competition and a further entrenchment of the 
multi-party system; 
 
-- a well-administered and organized balloting process on 
election day; 
 
-- significant professional improvements by the Supreme 
Commission for Elections and Referenda (SCER); 
 
-- close and constructive cooperation between international 
actors, including NDI, International Foundation for Electoral 
Systems (IFES) and the UN Development Program (UNDP), and the 
SCER, resulting in significant administrative and political 
improvements. 
 
Despite many positive developments, significant flaws remain 
that must be addressed vigorously in future election 
processes, including: 
 
-- evidence of election law violations, primarily but not 
exclusively by the GPC, including political intimidation, 
underage voting, inappropriate behavior by security forces 
and vote buying on election day; 
 
-- obstruction by counting commissioners that has caused the 
results of more than 20 constituencies to go unannounced 72 
hours after the end of voting, calling into question the 
credibility of results in these areas. 
 
For example, 
HULL