US embassy cable - 95LONDON13048

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 013048 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, NEA/ENA 
PARIS FOR MORAN 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: 9/15/25 
TAGS:  PREL PGOV PTER EAID SU IQ IZ 
SUBJECT:  LEADER OF SUDANESE OPPOSITION SEEKS USG SUPPORT 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  LEADER OF THE SUDANESE OPPOSITION 
COALITION, AL-SAYED EL-MERGHANI, TOLD US SEPTEMBER 15 
THAT OPPOSITION EFFORTS WILL PRODUCE THE DOWNFALL OF THE 
NATIONAL ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF) REGIME IN KHARTOUM. 
 
--  TO FURTHER THIS EFFORT, EL-MERGHANI ASKED THE USG TO 
"ENCOURAGE" REGIONAL LEADERS TO LEND SUPPORT TO SUDANESE 
OPPOSITION GROUPS.  WE RESPONDED THAT THE U.S. WOULD NOT 
INTERFERE WITH INTERNAL MATTERS IN SUDAN, BUT AGREED TO 
PASS ON HIS REQUEST.  PLEASE NOTE ACTION REQUEST, 
PARAGRAPH 11. 
 
--  REGARDING TERRORIST ACTIVITY, EL-MERGHANI SAID HE IS 
SURE THE NOTORIOUS BIN LADEN REMAINS IN SUDAN.  HE 
ACCUSED THE GOS OF COMPLICITY IN THE ASSASSINATION 
ATTEMPT ON PRESIDENT MUBARAK. 
 
--  EL-MERGHANI NOTED EVIDENCE OF SUPPORT FROM BOTH IRAN 
AND IRAQ FOR THE NIF, CITING NIF LEADER TURABI'S 
PARTICULARLY CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
3.  AFRICA WATCHER MET IN LONDON ON SEPTEMBER 15 WITH 
LEADER OF THE SUDANESE DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY (DUP) 
AND HEAD OF THE COUNTRY'S OPPOSITION COALITION, AL-SAYED 
MOHAMED OSMAN EL-MERGHANI.  ALTHOUGH EL-MERGHANI SPEAKS 
SOME ENGLISH, HE USUALLY SPOKE IN ARABIC, WHICH HIS 
AIDE, A. HADI (A SECURITY CONSULTANT BASED IN THE 
BRITISH MIDLANDS), TRANSLATED.  MERGHANI WORE CEREMONIAL 
BLACK ROBES AND A TURBAN. 
 
 
OPPOSITION GOALS 
---------------- 
 
4.  EL-MERGHANI NOTED THAT THE DUP HAD JUST COMPLETED 
THE LONDON MEETING OF ITS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE THAT DAY. 
THE PARTY HAD RESOLVED THAT, IN THE ABSENCE OF SUPPORT 
FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, THE DUP WILL BEGIN TO 
LOBBY SUDANESE IN EXILE FOR SUPPORT.  IN PARTICULAR, 
EL-MERGHANI SAID, THE OPPOSITION IS SEEKING TO ESTABLISH 
A RADIO STATION.  AT THE SAME TIME, OPPOSITIONISTS WILL 
SEEK SUPPORT FROM DISGRUNTLED MEMBERS OF THE SUDANESE 
MILITARY.  IN ADDITION TO GENERAL FATIH AHMED ALI, SOME 
COMMANDERS IN BORDER AREAS ARE SYMPATHETIC TO THE 
OPPOSITION. 
 
5.  ASKED FOR HIS PROGNOSIS, EL-MERGHANI SAID HE 
BELIEVED SUDAN WILL AVOID SOMALIA'S FATE, AND THAT THE 
SUDANESE PEOPLE WILL "TOPPLE" THE NIF REGIME.  BUT THE 
GOS WILL NEVER FALL ON ITS OWN.  THE CURRENT SPATE OF 
DEMONSTRATIONS ARE THE FIRST HINT OF THAT KIND OF 
EFFORT.  YET FOREIGN AFFAIRS SECRETARY EL-SADDIN HAS 
SAID THAT IF THE GOS FALLS, HE WILL MAKE THE COUNTRY 
UNGOVERNABLE, EL-MERGHANI TOLD US.  AND IF THE 
GOVERNMENT FALLS AND THE OPPOSITION COMES TO POWER, 
EL-MERGHANI BELIEVES SIXTH-COLUMNISTS FROM THE NIF WILL 
POSE A SERIOUS DANGER TO ITS STABILITY, ALONG WITH 
TERRORISTS WHOM THE NIF REGIME HAS SUPPORTED. 
 

REQUEST FOR USG SUPPORT 
----------------------- 
 
6.  EL-MERGHANI SAID THE SUDANESE OPPOSITION DID NOT 
WANT INTERVENTION FROM THE U.S. OR NEIGHBORING STATES, 
BUT HOPED FOR SUPPORT.  IN PARTICULAR, HE ASKED THE U.S. 
TO "ENCOURAGE" NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES -- HE MENTIONED 
EGYPT, SAUDI ARABIA AND THE GULF STATES IN PARTICULAR -- 
TO LEND SUPPORT TO THE OPPOSITION.  FOR IF THE 
PPOSITION DOES NOT SUCCEED IN OVERTHROWING THE NIF 
REGIME, EL-MERGHANI ARGUED, THE AREA WILL REMAIN 
UNSTABLE.  IN RESPONSE, WE SAID THE U.S. WILL NOT 
INTERVENE IN, NOR INTERFERE WITH THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS 
OF, SUDAN.  WE WOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS FOR GREATER 
RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, AND TO SEEK A REGIONAL 
SOLUTION TO INSTABILITY IN THE REGION.  THAT SAID, WE 
AGREED TO CONVEY EL-MERGHANI'S REQUEST BACK TO 
WASHINGTON. 
 
 
GOS SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM 
------------------------- 
 
7.  ASKED ABOUT KHARTOUM'S SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM, 
EL-MERGHANI REPLIED THAT THE LOWEST LEVEL OF GOS SUPPORT 
FOR TERRORISM IS ITS OPERATION OF VARIOUS ISLAMIC 
"SALVATION GROUPS."  MANY OF THE MID-LEVEL MANAGERS OF 
THESE GROUPS ARE EITHER SAUDI ARABIAN OR LIBYAN, THOUGH 
MOST OF THE FIELD WORKERS ARE ACTUALLY PALESTINIAN. IN 
ADDITION, MANY APPARENTLY PRIVATE FIRMS IN SUDAN ARE 
ACTUALLY FUND-RAISING FRONTS FOR TERRORISTS, MOSTLY USED 
FOR ACQUIRING WEAPONS, HE ADDED.  THE NOTORIOUS OSAMA 
BIN LADIN REMAINS IN KHARTOUM, EL-MERGHANI MAINTAINED. 
HE NOTED THAT A REPRESENTATIVE OF AN IRANIAN-FUNDED 
ISLAMIC FRONT GROUP, A SAUDI CITIZEN NAMED (FNU) 
MASSARI, IS CURRENTLY IN THE UK UNDER BIN LADIN'S 
DIRECTION; HE SAID HE HAD TOLD HMG OF THIS. 
 
 
RELATIONS WITH EGYPT, IGADD 
--------------------------- 
 
8.  ASKED ABOUT THE MUBARAK ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT, 
EL-MERGHANI ACCUSED THE GOS OF INVOLVEMENT IN IT, ADDING 
HE BELIEVED IT WOULD CAUSE A SHAKE UP IN EGYPTIAN 
SECURITY.  IN HIS VIEW, MANY ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS HAD 
INFILTRATED THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING ITS 
SECURITY APPARATUS.  HE BLAMED LACK OF SAUDI SUPPORT ON 
SIMILAR INFILTRATION BY ISLAMISTS.  HADI, EL-MERGHANI'S 
ASSISTANT, LATER ADDED THAT THE EGYPTIAN FOREIGN 
MINISTER'S SUDANESE DESK RECENTLY UNDERWENT A PERSONNEL 
UPHEAVAL AS A RESULT OF GOE SECURITY MEASURES, RESULTING 
IN IMPROVED COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN CAIRO AND THE 
SUDANESE OPPOSITION.  EL-MERGHANI ALSO APPLAUDED EGYPT'S 
REDUCTION OF DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN SUDAN.  ASKED ABOUT 
PROSPECTS FOR IGADD BROKERING A REGIONAL SETTLEMENT, 
EL-MERGHANI CALLED THE NIF REGIME "EVIL" AND INCAPABLE 
OF AGREEING TO PEACE. 
 
 
TURABI AND ISLAMISM 
------------------- 
 
9.  AT THE CENTER OF THE NIF REGIME IS TURABI, 
EL-MERGHANI CONTINUED, WHO HAS CLOSE TIES TO IRAN AND 
IRAQ.  THE NIF RECEIVES MANY DONATIONS FROM IRANIAN 
FRONT ORGANIZATIONS, PARTICULARLY THE WRETCHED OF THE 
EARTH, MANY OF WHICH EARN LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY THROUGH 
THEIR OPERATION OF HOTELS IN TEHRAN.  THESE 
ORGANIZATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO ANNOUNCE "A GREAT 
LEAP," WHICH EL-MERGHANI BELIEVES MUST REFER TO PLANNED 
ATTACKS ON FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS AND THEIR OFFICIALS. 
 
10.  TURABI HAS LONG HAD A CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH SADDAM 
HUSSEIN, EL-MERGHANI SAID.  TURABI URGED SADDAM TO 
INVADE KUWAIT, AND ADVISED SADDAM TO INVOKE THE KORAN 
DURING THE GULF WAR AND AFTER.  MORE RECENTLY, 
EL-MERGHANI SAID HE HAD HEARD FROM "EYE-WITNESSES" THAT 
TURABI HAS SAID THAT MUBARAK AND SAUDI ARABIAN KING FAHD 
"MUST GO."  TURABI HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE CONTACT WITH 
ISLAMISTS IN QATAR.  EL-MERGHANI SAID HE BELIEVES TURABI 
PLANNED A SERIES OF ISLAMIST COUPS THROUGHOUT THE GULF 
REGION, THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING HIM ENORMOUS POWER 
BEHIND THE SCENES.  FOR THIS REASON, EL-MERGHANI 
CONCLUDED, HE BELIEVES THAT TURABI HAS BECOME 
MEGALOMANIACAL.  IN CLOSING, HE ASKED TO MEET AMBASSADOR 
CARNEY EITHER IN LONDON OR CAIRO AT SOME MUTUALLY 
AGREEABLE TIME, AND TO RECOMMEND A CONTACT AT EMBASSY 
CAIRO. 
 
 
COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST 
-------------------------- 
 
11.  EL-MERGHANI IS A SERIOUS INTERLOCUTOR, THOUGH IT 
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUBSTANTIATE ALL HIS VIEWS.  WE 
BELIEVE WE SHOULD REPLY TO HIS REQUEST FOR USG 
ENCOURAGEMENT OF NEIGHBORING STATES IN HIS CAUSE'S 
BEHALF.  WHILE WE BELIEVE THE USG CANNOT OFFER SUCH 
ENCOURAGEMENT, WE COULD OFFER TO KEEP IN CLOSE TOUCH 
INSTEAD, PROBABLY IN CAIRO (WHERE HE SPENDS MOST OF THE 
YEAR).  ACTION REQUEST:  PLEASE PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO 
REPLY TO EL-MERGHANI'S REQUEST.  NOTE:  EL-MERGHANI WILL 
REMAIN IN LONDON UNTIL LATE SEPTEMBER; AFRICA WATCHER 
CAN CONVEY USG RESPONSE VIA EL-MERGHANI'S AIDE. 
 
 
DEAL