US embassy cable - 03LAGOS888

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000888 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2008 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: YORUBA CONTROL OF SOUTHWEST POLITICS A 
THING OF THE PAST? 
 
Classified By: ACTING CONSUL GENERAL JOSEPH GREGOIRE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B 
 
 
) AND (D). 
 
 
1. (U)  Summary.  Ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 
sweeps in recent legislative and gubernatorial elections show 
that rule of "old line" leaders of the mainly-Yoruba Alliance 
for Democracy Party and the Yoruba socio-cultural 
organization, Afenifere, has ended.  Five of the six States 
in the southwest have gone to PDP and a younger group of 
politicians.  This may signal a more progressive governance 
in the region, at least for the near term.  End Summary. 
 
 
Licking the wounds 
 
 
2. (C)  Leaders of the largely-Yoruba Alliance for Democracy 
Party (AD) and the Yoruba socio-cultural organization, 
Afenifere, met four days after the April 19 presidential and 
gubernatorial elections to try to muddle together a position 
in the face of the AD's astonishing defeat in five of the six 
southwestern States they had controlled since the elections 
of 1999.  The group issued a resolution rejecting the 
election results but stopped short of threats of court 
challenges that other politicians have made.  Instead, they 
stated that the validity of the elections and the 
determination of the rightful winner would be left to the 
"tribunal of God and the court of public opinion."  The 
resolution also rejected reports that AD National Chairman 
Ahmed Abdulkadri had officially conceded a presidential 
victory to Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and 
current President, Olusegun Obasanjo.  Trying to find someone 
to blame for the debacle, an AD source told PolOffs that some 
in the group accused Abdulkadri of being in cahoots with the 
PDP to the detriment and destruction of the AD. 
 
 
3. (C)  AD and Afenifere have given the media a list of 
alleged irregularities in the  April 12 legislative elections 
and the April 19 gubernatorial elections.  (AD did not field 
a presidential candidate, and thus, has no standing to 
challenge that election.)  The leaders of the two groups were 
to have met again on April 24th to consider what action they 
will take with respect to this matter, but sources have told 
PolOffs that the decision is unlikely to contradict the 
decision already taken, i. e. not to challenge the elections 
in court.  Ironically, the PDP is apparently going after the 
one southwestern State it did not capture, Lagos State.  The 
losing candidate, Funso Williams (PDP), has submitted a 
petition charging gross irregularities in the gubernatorial 
election that went to AD Governor Bola Tinubu.  Although some 
irregularities were reported by all elections observers, 
there appears to be little chance that Williams' challenge 
will succeed. 
 
 
What happened and what's next? 
 
 
4. (C)  Consulate sources and most media observers blame the 
AD and Afenifere current troubles on complacency.  Since the 
First Republic, AD (evolving from the Yoruba base in 
predecessor organization like the United Party of Nigeria and 
the Social Democratic Party) and Afenifere had an easy time 
of marshaling support of the Yoruba in the southwest.  This 
was so much so that many observers still refer to the region 
as the "monolithic" southwest.  However, beginning with the 
elections of 1999, leaders of the group apparently became 
over-confident and began to neglect the constant care and 
feeding necessary to sustain a loyal constituency.  Added to 
this, Afenifere began to try to reshape itself as a political 
organization, if not superior to AD, then at least AD's equal 
in demanding Yoruba loyalty.  Obansanjo, a Yoruba and PDP 
candidate, won neither the hearts nor the votes of Yorubas in 
the southwest and got no support from Afenifere in 1999.  As 
a consequence, he is reportedly behind the formation of the 
Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE) in 2001.  The YCE, widely 
regarded as the tool of Obasanjo, publicly eschews any 
political aspirations and claims its focus is only 
"socio-cultural." 
 
 
5. (C)  An aide to Governor Tinubu told PolOff that leaders 
of AD would be meeting during the next months to shape a "new 
AD" and a "new Deal" for the Yoruba.  With five of the 
governors in the southwest heavily financed, solidly backed 
by the majority party and ready to make names for themselves 
and their party, AD will have a difficult road ahead.  Media 
observers have commented that the new bloc of young Yoruba 
governors will no longer be directed by the "politics of 
gerontocratics" of the old leaders of any political party and 
Afenifere has lost its influence over this generation of 
political leaders.  Some observers have pointed to the 
assassination of Justice Minister Chief Bola Ige, a strong 
opponent of Afenifere's mixing in politics, as the point 
where Yorubas began to lose faith in both the AD and 
Afenifere. 
 
 
State by State 
 
 
6. (C)  Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu was always expected 
to be retained in office.  Despite grumbling from some losing 
candidates, Tinubu has already begun to consolidate his win 
by accepting congratulations from opponents and beginning to 
pay off campaign debts.  In Ondo State age, in the person of 
incumbent Adebayo Adefarati, bowed to the relative youth of 
PDP candidate Dr. Oluegun Agagu.  Although, Adefarati had 
made no statement rejecting or accepting defeat to date, 
Agagu has already published a victory message and solicited 
"suggestions from the people to improve the State."  Chief 
Bisi Akande, in Osun State is apparently the only loser to 
step aside gracefully.  One day after Prince Olagunsoye 
Oyinlola (PDP) was declared the winner, Akande set up a 
seventeen member transition team to handle the turn-over to 
his successor. 
 
 
7. (C) The biggest surprise upset came in Ogun State where 
Governor Olusegun Osoba was unseated by Otunba Gbenga Daniel. 
 Osoba was expected to win re-election because he had turned 
in the best performance of any of the southwest governors 
except Tinubu.  He was  described by observers as a superb 
politician campaigning tirelessly across the State and 
drawing large enthusiastic crowds.  He was also reported to 
have the support of the traditional rulers in Ogun.  However, 
as soon as Daniel was declared the winner and President 
Obasanjo sent a congratulatory message, the traditional 
rulers hurried to congratulate Daniel, too, and urge the 
loser to "accept defeat in good faith and the spirit of 
sportsmanship." 
 
 
8. (C)  After the April 12 legislative elections showed PDP 
making big inroads into AD's southwest power base, many 
projected that of the six vulnerable governors, Lamidi 
Adesina of Oyo State would most certainly lose his job. 
Adesina had lost support of the Oyo citizens by failure to 
deliver government services, alienating local leaders, and 
lavishing government money and jobs on his friends and 
family.  As predicted, Adesina lost to rival Senator Rasheed 
Ladoja of the PDP. 
 
 
9. (C)  Following the April 12 legislative loses, Governor 
Niyi Adebyo, charged out with renewed vigor to wage a 
week-long, door-to-door campaign to save his seat in tiny 
Eketi State.  Although a close race down to the finish, 
Adeboyo lost to PDP's Peter Ayo Fayose.  There has been no 
word from either camp on whether the election will be 
challenged or accepted. 
 
 
10. (C)  Comment.  Nigerian voters in this series of 
elections appeared to be more enthusiastic about their 
ability to affect government by their votes.  Political 
parties, especially the AD, were taken by surprise that 
voters would not only complain about bad government but come 
out in significant numbers and stand in the hot sun or 
driving rain to vote to make changes in their leadership. 
The new governors and legislators now have four years to 
prove that the voters were right to trust democracy, and the 
voters have four years to see that they can have change if 
the new leaders fail to deliver.  AD and Afenifere leaders 
seem to have rejected, however, any notion that their ousting 
from southwest seats of power had any direct link to voter 
preference.  They claim that fraud alone explains their poor 
showing in the elections. 
HINSON-JONES