US embassy cable - 03LAGOS886

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000886 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR POL -- MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, KDEM, ASEC, SOCI, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SOUTH-SOUTH ELECTION LOSERS PLAY WAITING 
GAME 
 
 
Classified By: POL-ECON CHIEF JOSEPH GREGOIRE.  REASON:  1.5 (B & D). 
 
 
 1.  (C) SUMMARY.  In Nigeria's South-south, all six of the 
incumbent governors of the ruling People's Democratic Party 
(PDP) had their reelection confirmed by the Independent 
National Electoral Commission (INEC) after the April 19 
election.  The degree of election tampering varied starkly 
across and within the region's states (details to follow 
septel).  Similarly, the losing parties are engaging in 
divergent tactics in response to the reported outcomes, 
ranging from "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" to "let's 
bring back military rule and attack the oil companies." 
Though cause for monitoring, most of the losers' rhetoric can 
be dismissed as bluster.  The likelihood of their grievances' 
being redressed by legal or extralegal means is slim at best. 
 Delta, Edo, and Rivers states offer comparative examples of 
the major themes reverberating from the losing parties' 
drums.  Meanwhile, the generality of the population they 
profess to represent may disengage from politics at least 
until 2007, when they may next have a chance to elect 
representative candidates.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
-------------------- 
THE BAD: DELTA STATE 
-------------------- 
 
 
2.  (C) THE PROCESS: Both the national legislative elections 
on April 12th and gubernatorial-presidential elections on the 
19th displayed marked variation between the inland areas and 
the riverine and coastal areas of Delta State.  Within the 
capital's local government areas (LGAs), elections were 
conducted reasonably well; in the swamps, elections were 
essentially a sham (septel to elaborate on Poloff 
observations in Delta). 
 
 
3.  (C) CONTESTING THE OUTCOME: Governor James Ibori's 
runner-up was Chief Great Ogboru from the Alliance for 
Democracy (AD) ticket.  In his most significant statement so 
far, Ogboru denied having declared victory, but stopped short 
of conceding defeat.  Ogboru's statement followed the 
announcement that police were investigating him for falsely 
claiming victory before the INEC results were announced, and 
the State Security Service (SSS) reportedly invited him for 
an interview as well.  Police arrested five suspects, 
including the radio station proprietor and his staff, for 
allegedly airing news that Ogboru had won in Effurun on the 
20th. 
 
 
4.  (C) At least one defeated AD candidate, Sunny Uwode of an 
Ethiope constituency, was arrested.  Other unsuccessful 
candidates have called for cancellation of the National 
Assembly election results and the removal of Police 
Commissioner John Ahmada.  The All Nigeria People's Party 
(ANPP), a major competitor though less visible in Delta as an 
adversary than in other states, has launched its share of 
contests against the polls.  ANPP's House of Representatives 
candidate for Warri, Bolatsi Omatseye Dudu, petitioned the 
state INEC after elections were postponed in his district, 
but has yet to receive word that any will be rescheduled. 
TheIgbo-based All People's Grand Alliance (APGA), whic had 
a measurable showing in the national legisltive and 
gubernatorial elections, has been less ocal in Delta about 
contesting its losses. 
 
 
-------------------- 
THE VERY BAD: EDO STATE 
----------------------- 
 
 
5.  (C) THE PROCESS: The PDP construed its overwhelming 
victory over th ANPP's competition as evidence that the 
party's core support is limited to the North.  Observers 
noted major irregularities from the capital through the 
outlying areas.  During the months leading up to the 
elections, many of the PDP's rival politicians asserted 
having been the subjects of assaults, arrests, and 
intimidation. 
 
 
6.  (C) CONTESTING THE OUTCOME: No united front is likely to 
challenge the outcome of Edo's gubernatorial election. 
Governor Lucky Igbinedion's main challenger was ANPP's 
Senator Roland Owie, followed by the AD's Dr. Odion Ojo, the 
National Conscience Party's (NCP) Osagie Obayuwana, the 
United Nigeria Peoples Party's (UNPP) Dr. Clement Alile, and 
the NDP's Harry Igiehon.  The ANPP in Edo has been torn for 
months by internal wrangling.  Nowa Omorogbe, special 
assistant to the Governor's wife, told Poloff, "One of Owie's 
competitors from the ANPP's gubernatorial primaries, Matthew 
Urhoghide, has already publicly accepted the Governor's 
reelection.  We think Owie will eventually accept it too." 
In the meantime, the course Owie's camp appears likely to 
take is to publicly denounce the elections as flawed, and see 
the reaction they get without hoping for much result.  Owie's 
party agent Isaiah Osifo, who was "manhandled" and his "life 
threatened by PDP loyalists" at the state collation center, 
thought the PDP should have left him to "celebrate the 
decision of his conscience while they went about celebrating 
their victory."  (Osifo was himself a PDP member until 
defecting to ANPP in March.)  Another Osifo, Eddy Ehi Osifo, 
gubernatorial candidate of the Movement for Democracy and 
Justice (MDJ), publicly rejected the election results on 
April 23, but said he would focus on ways to counter fraud in 
future elections rather than contest the outcome of the last 
elections.  In short, the PDP anticipates that some of the 
competition "will write to the courts," but "nobody will take 
to the streets.  If they do, they will be arrested." 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
THE VERY, VERY BAD: RIVERS STATE 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
7.  (C) THE PROCESS: In Rivers, poloffs witnessed outright 
rigging and ballot stuffing throughout the state in both the 
national legislative and the gubernatorial-presidential 
elections.  Massive vote rigging took place with the 
egregious collaboration of PDP agents and security personnel. 
 In no LGAs did foreign or domestic observers find the 
process remotely approaching free or fair elections. 
 
 
8.  (C) CONTESTING THE OUTCOME: The major challenger to 
Rivers Governor Peter Odili was ANPP's Chief Sergeant Chidi 
Awuse.  He may seek redress via the courts, but does not 
share the Rivers State ANPP secretary's radical minority 
viewpoint that "the army should take over the country and 
people should start blowing up oil pipelines in Rivers 
State."  Some candidates from the losing parties have already 
decamped to the PDP, such as House of Assembly aspirant from 
the National Democratic Party (NDP) Benibo Granville.  Saying 
the elections in Rivers thus far have been "free but not 
fair," Granville decided to follow former NDP gubernatorial 
candidate Dumo Lulu Briggs, who withdrew from the race.  The 
"high level of corruption inherent in Nigerian political 
elections, which adversely affected all the opposition 
parties", provoked Lulu Briggs's decision.  Other parties 
are weighing the merits of pursuing what appears to be a lost 
cause by contesting the election outcomes, against the 
potential gains to be had from supporting the party that 
cheated them. 
 
 
9.  (C)  ANPP's other losing candidates have decided to take 
their cues for further action from the party's national 
leadership. ANPP collective stance is that no elections have 
taken place to date in Rivers.  Ben Naanen, ANPP senatorial 
candidate for Southeast Rivers, confirmed to Poloff his 
belief that no elections took place in his constituency on 
April 12 and characterized the election as President 
Obasanjo's "civilian coup d'etat."  (The only ward where 
Naanen carried the vote was in his stronghold of Ogoniland, 
where President Ledum Mitee of the Movement for the Survival 
of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) resides.) Although Naanen feels 
the losing candidates are not obliged to accept the outcome, 
he intends to follow whatever course of action is charted 
from the ANPP's top leadership and General Buhari.  This 
would not extend, however, to Buhari's reported calls for 
military intervention.  "I can't imagine ANPP calling for a 
military coup," Naanen said.  "We wouldn't support that." 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
10.  (C) The South-south holds Nigeria's most critical 
resources, the arteries of the Federal Government: oil, gas, 
and a few refineries, ports and export-import processing 
zones.  The PDP-controlled GON is unlikely to tolerate legal 
challenges to the PDP's victories in the region.  The 
question of INEC and the judicial system's impartiality 
aside, the losing candidates' potential recourse is limited 
(septel to follow on judicial system's preparations for 
election challenges in court). South-south public opinion 
seems to be leaning toward acknowledging the futility of 
challenging the outcomes if not agreeing with the PDP 
victory.  Without popular backing for a massive challenge to 
the outcome of the elections, the losing parties are unlikely 
to get far. 
 
 
11.  (C) COMMENT CONT'D. We do not think it unwise for us to 
dismiss most of the defeated candidates' rhetoric as bluster. 
 They know that the likelihood of their grievances' being 
redressed by legal or extralegal means is slim at best. 
Those who might persist in challenging the election outcomes 
outside of the courts would almost surely face arrest on 
grounds of sedition or risk violent encounters with armed 
personnel, ranging from military forces in Delta's Warri and 
Escravos areas to police and state security throughout the 
South.  Menwhie the PDP will continue to consolidate its 
power i the coming weeks.  The electorate will react by 
hoosing one of three options: mounting organized eforts to 
sway the state and local governments toard policies they 
favor, looking to 2007 as thei next chance to elect 
representative candidates,or disengaging from politics with 
apathy.  Unfortunately, the last option is apt to be the 
choice f the much-abused population.  END COMMENT. 
GREGIRE