US embassy cable - 03ISTANBUL588

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000588 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TK, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: POWER AT ANY PRICE? CEM UZAN'S POLITICAL AMBITIONS 
 
 
REF: ANKARA 2516 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b & d) 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Initial contacts with Youth Party (GP) 
officials in Istanbul confirm our belief that the party is 
essentially a vehicle of convenience for media tycoon Cem 
Uzan's considerable political ambitions.  At the same time, 
GP is not resting on its laurels, but instead is moving 
quickly to build up a grass-roots presence throughout 
Istanbul, while Cem Uzan himself is reaching out to 
mainstream Turkish politicians ) including independent 
Istanbul Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna.  Istanbul politicians 
believe that GP's electoral performance in November was no 
flash-in-the-pan, and that Uzan and his party are in politics 
for the long haul.  End Summary. 
 
 
New Kid on the Block 
-------------------- 
2. (C) The November 2002 elections virtually wiped the 
Istanbul political landscape clean, leaving just two parties 
represented in parliament from Istanbul as elsewhere.  Even 
the center-right Motherland Party (ANAP), which had long 
relied on Istanbul as a solid voter base, could only manage 
4.6 percent here.  The newly-formed Youth Party (GP), 
however, despite a late slump in the polls, managed to 
capture 8.3 percent of the Istanbul vote (improving on the 
7.5 percent they received nationally).  As the heir-apparent 
of one of Turkey's wealthiest, and most unscrupulous, 
family-owned conglomerates, GP chairman and media tycoon Cem 
Uzan was already well known before he entered politics. 
Rumors suggest that the firm began as a small construction 
outfit that ballooned in size as a result of illicit dealings 
and money-laundering with the Qadaffi Libyan government. 
Whether these rumors are true or false, almost all Istanbul 
residents we have spoken to take the Uzans' unscrupulous 
reputation for granted.  While the USD 3 billion fraud case 
leveled by Motorola and Nokia against the Uzan family further 
enhanced their notoriety, most Istanbul Turks also remember 
how Uzan-owned Star Television won, and then reneged on, the 
contract to broadcast the premier Turkish soccer league 
games, but not before selling thousands of decoder boxes and 
non-refundable subscriptions. 
 
 
Local Billionaire Trying to Do Good? 
------------------------------------ 
3. (C) Despite his family's unsavory reputation, Cem Uzan 
appears to have made a successful transition to politics.  In 
fact, some Istanbul contacts feel Uzan's personal wealth is a 
political asset (i.e., "With more money than he knows what to 
do with, (Uzan) is unlikely to fall prey to the corruption 
that other politicians engage in").  Uzan also generously 
funded his own political campaign.  A former top Star 
executive told poloff that Uzan spent USD 40 million of his 
personal fortune (Note: Others have put the figure as high as 
USD 100 million.  End Note).  Whatever the total, Uzan made a 
splash during the campaign by enlisting big-name music icons 
to provide "free" concerts during his rallies and reportedly 
offering free Telsim mobile phones to active supporters. 
Uzan also hired well-known Istanbul advertising executive Ali 
Taran not merely to produce GP's advertisements, but, 
according to a former Taran associate, to craft his entire 
public image to appeal to a wide, untapped voter base.  The 
result was a finely-calibrated message combining populist 
calls for lower taxes and higher spending with an 
anti-Western, anti-IMF patriotic appeal to Turkish national 
pride.  Since the elections, Uzan continued his spending 
ways, blanketing Istanbul newspapers, television and radio 
with another carefully-crafted nationalistic message firmly 
opposing the U.S.-led war against Iraq, clearly another 
populist effort to play to the vast majority who opposed the 
war.  Nor did Uzan limit the campaign to his own media 
channels.  GP Vice Chairman Tugba Kalafatoglu told poloff on 
April 10 that they paid triple the going rate for advertising 
space in rival Dogan group newspapers. 
 
 
Building From the Bottom Up and the Top Down 
-------------------------------------------- 
4. (C) Istanbul Youth Party (GP) Chairman Hasan Bakkal 
admitted to poloff on April 9 that GP had not been ready for 
early elections and had barely enough time to establish a 
token skeleton infrastructure in each of Istanbul's 
districts.  GP had its first local party congress in February 
(where Bakkal himself was elected the chairman of a 60-person 
board) and has been working to develop a serious grassroots 
infrastructure throughout the city.  Separately, City Council 
Motherland Party (ANAP) Group President Recai Delibasioglu 
told poloff that 12 of ANAP's Istanbul district chairmen had 
defected to GP since the elections.  Bakkal's provincial 
headquarters, for example, will move to new, larger office 
space in the next few weeks to accommodate its growing staff. 
 Bakkal estimated (while freely admitting that he did not 
have hard numbers) that GP has 150,000 registered volunteers 
in Istanbul.  He told poloff that he hopes to have GP 
volunteers personally visit between 65 and 70 percent of 
Istanbul households by the end of the year.  On the critical 
issue of finances, Bakkal claimed that GP is relying 
exclusively on small donations from party members.  Bakkal 
expressed skepticism regarding the possibility that GP will 
receive government funds (Note: According to existing Turkish 
laws, based on its recent electoral performance, GP should 
now be entitled to annual disbursements of government funds. 
End Note). 
 
 
5. (C) While building from the bottom, GP is also looking to 
recruit mainstream politicians at the top.  On April 9, 
former State Minister and two-term True Path Party (DYP) 
parliamentarian Ufuk Soylemez formally joined the Youth Party 
(reftel).  Meanwhile, Bakkal confirmed to poloff that GP has 
also invited independent Istanbul Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna to 
join the party.  Bakkal claimed that Gurtuna is close to GP, 
but admitted that he has not yet made a decision.  (Note: We 
had heard this from a number of other reliable sources as 
well.  See septel for further details.  End Note).  Others 
have told us that they too have been approached by GP, 
including former Istanbul Mayor Bedrettin Dalan, former 
Ambassador and Ozal Adviser Kaya Toperi, and ANAP City 
Council Group President Recai Delibasioglu. Bakkal said that 
GP has been flooded with applicants, but that they are 
turning away all but the "best." Delibasioglu confirmed to 
poloff that the lack of viable political alternatives has 
given GP the luxury to be selective. 
 
 
Whither GP? 
----------- 
6. (C) GP is already looking forward to the upcoming April 
2004 local elections, with a particular eye on the biggest 
prize of all, Istanbul.  Our contacts here believe that GP's 
electoral success was no mere flash-in-the-pan and that Cem 
Uzan is here to stay.  Motivated more by personal ambition 
than ideological convictions, many Istanbul politicians, like 
some of their colleagues elsewhere, are already trying to 
catch GP's rising star.  Our contacts predict that this trend 
will accelerate if the AK government is unable to manage the 
formidable political and economic challenges ahead. 
 
 
7. (C)  What about Cem Uzan himself?  Former Star executive 
and Uzan associate Aydin Ozdalga assured poloff that Cem Uzan 
personally is unlikely to run for local office, even for the 
influential position of Istanbul mayor.  His ambitions lie 
much higher.  As for his ideological convictions, Ozdalga and 
others believe that Uzan's anti-Western, populist rhetoric is 
skin-deep; were he to come to power, he would in all 
likelihood adopt more moderate policies.  GP Vice Chairman 
Kalafatoglu made a similar argument, citing more modest, 
nuanced rhetoric in recent GP advertising. 
 
 
8. (C) Comment: GP has made significant inroads in Istanbul 
with its nationalist bent and openly populist rhetoric, but 
the party still has its work cut out for it.  For those 
Istanbul politicians that place political ambition above 
personal ideology, joining such a party would be acceptable 
if such a move seemed politically fortuitous.  Consequently, 
many are in a waiting mode to see how the AK government fares 
in the coming months before deciding which way to jump. 
Altough some believe that the GP rhetoric is based more on 
political opportunism than any deep ideological conviction, 
it remains to be seen whether Cem Uzan and GP will moderate 
their tone in future elections or if they can eventually come 
to power. 
 
 
9. (C) Embassy Note: Cem Uzan and the GP appear to modify 
their rhetoric according to regions.  As such, their approach 
in Istanbul is likely to reflect a more urbane approach, at 
least at the top.  Nationally, the party is uniformly more 
extreme in its opportunism; our contacts to date give us no 
reason to conclude that Uzan and GP will moderate their tone 
or policies if they come to office. 
ARNETT