US embassy cable - 03ABUJA753

S E C R E T ABUJA 000753 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE PASS AF/W, NEA - DAS CROCKER 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/20013 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, EPET, NI, IZ 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: GON SAYS OPEC UNLIKELY TO CUT 
PRODUCTION 
 
 
REF:  STATE 101320 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter for reason 
1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
 
1.  (S) On April 22, Ambassador Jeter delivered reftel 
demarche to President Obasanjo's Special Advisor on 
Petroleum Affairs and Energy Rilwanu Lukman.  Lukman, 
who is leading Nigeria's delegation to the April 24 
OPEC meeting in Vienna and was OPEC General Secretary 
for ten years, said the normally conservative OPEC 
would be unlikely to cut production until the 
situation in Iraq is more clear.  Lukman cautioned, 
however, it would not take much additional oil to 
oversupply the market, and OPEC wants to maintain a 
price of $22 to $28 dollars. 
 
 
2.  (U) Lukman said Iraq would likely take 9 to 12 
months to return production to its pre-Operation Iraqi 
Freedom quota of 2.5 million barrels/day, and it would 
be more than two years before Iraq produces oil at its 
pre-Gulf War level of 3.1 million barrels/day.  He 
told local press on April 23, "If Iraq doesn't come 
back immediately, as I expect it will not, then we 
have to continue to supply the market.  We don't want 
the price to go too high."  He added, "we have to 
anticipate when Iraq is likely to come back and 
prepare accordingly.  We will find out what the 
Americans are doing, how soon they will have a new 
government in place, and, more importantly, how soon 
it will take them to rehabilitate their 
infrastructure." 
 
 
JETER