US embassy cable - 03HARARE795

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000795 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, DRL 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2013 
TAGS: ECON, ELAB, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: STAYAWAY, DAY TWO:  NO BUSINESS, AS USUAL 
 
REF: A. HARARE 779 
 
     B. HARARE 550 
 
Classified By: Laboff KRBel for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
 1. (SBU)  Summary.  The second day of the ZCTU-called 
stayaway continued with widespread industrial shutdown, many 
banks closed, and more shops and grocery stores closed than 
Wednesday.  The GOZ seems determined to find a scapegoat that 
minimizes public support, claiming that the ZCTU has paid 
transport operators to abandon their regular routes. 
Conflicting reports abound, but labor sources indicate that 
they will not renew a call for an indefinite stayaway, but 
will instead support the MDC when it renews calls in May for 
a nationwide mass action.  End summary. 
 
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Participation Remains High 
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2. (SBU)  A quick tour through industrial Harare indicated 
that businesses continued with a 70-90% shutdown rate (ref 
a).  Banks remained closed, for the most part, and many more 
shops and grocery stores were locked.  One press report 
stated that infamous "labor leader" (and defeated Zanu-PF 
candidate for Parliament) Joseph Chinotimba personally 
intervened with a clothing store in downtown Harare, first 
forcing the owner to open his shop, and later arresting the 
owner for not keeping his business open.  The GOZ-controlled 
media has also claimed that the ZCTU paid transport operators 
up to Zim $50,000 each to buy their cooperation and 
compensate them for lost business in an effort to prevent 
workers from reaching their jobs. 
 
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Rumors of Continuation Not Confirmed 
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3. (C)  One local businessman reports that the ZCTU has 
called for an additional four days of stayaway next week, 
from April 29 through May 2 -- and encompassing the May 1st 
Labor Day holiday.  However, we have received no 
corroboration from labor contacts.  By contrast, the 
Solidarity Center rep reports that the stayaway will end as 
of COB on Friday, and states that workers will report as 
usual from Saturday onwards.  This contact also stated that 
the ZCTU intended this stayaway as an opening salvo, and will 
now concentrate its efforts on coordinating with the MDC in 
future mass actions scheduled for early May.  Additionally, 
MDC sources have previously indicated that they would not be 
ready for a renewed call for mass action before May 5, 
possibly as late as May 13.  Although they may now intend to 
capitalize on the momentum generated by the ZCTU's action, we 
have had no independent corroboration of such a plan. 
 
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GOZ Attempts to Spin the Situation 
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4. (SBU)  The GOZ has been desperately attempting to pre-empt 
further public mass action through concession, coercion, and 
confusion.  The GOZ-controlled press published stories of 
new, reduced transport fees (with a maximum price of Zim $300 
one-way) on the second day of the stayaway.  The GOZ also 
coupled this story with public threats of revocation of 
licenses should transport operators fail to ply their 
assigned routes.  Today, on the third and final day of the 
stayaway, the headlines trumpet newly announced minimum 
wages, reportedly negotiated between government and 
businesses under the Tripartite Negotiating Forum (TNF), 
despite the fact that labor -- the third party -- has 
publicly disavowed further participation.  In its statement 
calling for the stayaway, the ZCTU publicly blasted the GOZ 
for raising the fuel price unilaterally outside of the TNF 
process (ref a) and announced that the previously negotiated 
minimum wages had "been overtaken by events on the ground" 
and were no longer adequate.  Now, the GOZ is hailing the 
"negotiated" minimum wage as a triumph for workers -- at 
levels agreed (but not signed into law) as early as March 
(ref b), well before fuel was raised by 300%. 
 
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Comment 
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5. (C)  The ZCTU seems to be drawing strength from the 
widespread support of this call for mass action.  We have 
received some reports of labor leaders being arrested in 
Bulawayo, and some national ZCTU leaders are reportedly in 
hiding ahead of rumored Harare arrests.  The potential for 
massive retaliation remains a real threat, with Minister of 
Information Jonathan Moyo calling for criminal and civil 
penalties against labor union officials under the draconian 
Public Order and Security Act, which has given the GOZ great 
leeway for arrest and detention of opposition leaders.  Given 
the widespread shutdown of businesses, it will be difficult 
for the GOZ to spin this stayaway as a failure.  The combined 
efforts of both labor and the MDC in future calls to action 
will increase political and economic pressure on the GOZ. 
SULLIVAN