US embassy cable - 03ABUJA749

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000749 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
CAIRO FOR POL - MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MOD DANJUMA SAYS PDP WILL HANDLE BUHARI 
PROBLEM 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASONS 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: During a hurried April 24 meeting, 
Minister of Defense T.Y. Danjuma and Ambassador Jeter 
discussed the fallout of the April 19 Presidential and 
Gubernatorial elections and April 12 National Assembly 
elections.  Danjuma expressed concern about ANPP 
Presidential candidate Mohammadu Buhari's refusal to 
concede defeat; however, he did not take Buhari's threat to 
use "mass action" to grind Nigeria to a halt seriously. 
Danjuma said that some of the just elected ANPP governors 
were not with Buhari and President Obasanjo's PDP would be 
reaching out to them and other Buhari supporters in the 
next few days.  While Danjuma was unsure of the composition 
of the next Obasanjo government, he thought the President 
would offer positions to opposition party members as he did 
after the 1999 elections.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C) During a hurried April 24 meeting, Minister of 
Defense Gen. (ret.) Theophilis Y. Danjuma and Ambassador 
Jeter discussed the fallout from the Presidential and 
Gubernatorial elections.  Danjuma, ill with malaria and the 
flu, said while he was concerned about ANPP Presidential 
candidate and former military Head of State Maj. Gen. 
(ret.) Mohammadu Buhari's refusal to concede defeat to PDP 
President Olusegun Obasanjo, the GON would be able to "deal 
with" Buhari.  Commenting that he remembered Buhari's 
inflexibility from the days when he was the would-be 
President's commanding officer, Danjuma said he did not 
expect Buhari to back down.  Nevertheless, the MOD was 
confident the PDP would weather Buhari's criticisms and 
threats.  Danjuma said most of the recently elected and re- 
elected ANPP governors, eager to remain in their seats, 
were unwilling to support Buhari's call for new elections. 
The President and the President's men planned to reach out 
to the governors and other prominent opposition party 
members.  Danjuma predicted some would withdraw their 
support for Buhari in the next few days.  Danjuma dismissed 
the idea that "mass action" by Buhari partisans could bring 
parts of Nigeria to a stand still.  Referring to the ANPP 
strongholds in the North, Danjuma said the areas Buhari 
controlled were inconsequential to Nigeria's economy. 
 
 
3.  (C) Danjuma conceded the elections were less than 
perfect and serious problems were evident in the South- 
South.  However, he called on Buhari to present enough 
evidence to warrant a new election.  Further, Danjuma said 
Buhari had no right to cry foul since the ANPP was guilty 
of electoral malfeasance as well. 
 
 
4.  (C) When asked if the PDP would make concessions to 
opposition party members, Danjuma said he was not a member 
of the PDP (or any other party) and, therefore, did not 
know.  However, he opined that since Obasanjo formed a 
"National Government" that included opposition party 
members after the 1999 election, the President would 
probably do the same now in the interest of national unity. 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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5.  (C) Danjuma's prediction that Buhari will not back down 
is probably accurate.  However, if the PDP can succeed in 
luring away Buhari's supporters, Obasanjo might be able to 
pull the rug out from under the would-be President, leaving 
him without the support of other ANPP stalwarts and other 
opposition politicians.  Buhari's ability to influence 
public opinion and action would be greatly diminished. 
 
 
6.  (C) However, the PDP is unlikely to find the task of 
turning Buhari's supporters an easy one.  Buhari's strong 
public support in the North and negative international and 
domestic criticism of the Nigerian elections may strengthen 
the resolve of other ANPP flag bearers.  Whether the PDP is 
successful in this venture should play out over the next 
week.  END COMMENT. 
JETER