US embassy cable - 95KHARTOUM4189

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 004189 
 
LONDON FOR YOUNG 
 
PARIS FOR MORAN 
 
E.O. 12356:  2005 
TAGS:  PGOV, PREL, SU 
SUBJECT:  BASHIR TAKES CHARGE? 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 3996 
 
1.  COL. (RETD) MARTIN MALWAL AROP, A LONG TIME EMBASSY 
CONTACT, TOLD THE DCM LAST NIGHT THAT PRESIDENT OMAR EL 
BASHIR IS ASSERTING HIS AUTHORITY AS COMANDER IN CHIEF OF 
THE ARMED FORCES TO REDUCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NATIONAL 
ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF) ON THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN.  MALWAL 
SAID THAT BASHIR RECENTLY CONVENED A MEETING OF SENIOR 
MILITARY OFFICERS TO SOLICIT SUPPORT FOR THIS COURSE OF 
ACTION.  AT THIS MEETING, BASHIR SPECIFICALLY ASKED 
BRIGADIER EL HADI ABDULLAH MOHAMED, COMMANDER OF THE 
HEADQUARTERS BRIGADE AND KNOWN NIFER, IF HE WOULD SUPPORT 
HIM.  (FYI: THE MISSION OF BRIGADIER HADI'S BRIGADE IS TO 
DEFEND THE CAPITAL AND MILITARY HEADQUARTERS AGAINST A 
COUP ATTEMPT.  HADI WAS CHOSEN TO COMMAND THIS UNIT 
BECAUSE OF HIS SYMPATHY FOR THE NIF.  END FYI.)  HADI AND 
THE OTHER OFFICERS PRESENT AT THE MEETING PROMISED BASHIR 
THEIR SUPPORT. 
 
2.  MARTIN DID NOT KNOW THE PROXIMATE CAUSE OF BASHIR'S 
ACTION BUT SAID MANY THINGS WERE GOING ON THAT OF WHICH 
BASHIR EITHER DID NOT APPROVE OR WAS UNAWARE.  THE DCM 
WONDERED WHY IT HAD TAKEN BASHIR SIX YEARS TO FIGURE THIS 
OUT.  MARTIN DEFENDED BASHIR, WHO SAID HE WAS A MILITARY 
ACADEMY BATCH MATE OF HIS, SAYING IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE 
JUNE 30, 1989 COUP THAT BROUGHT BASHIR TO POWER HE HAD 
CALLED ON ALL ELEMENTS TO RALLY TO THE GOVERNMENT BUT ONLY 
THE NIF HAD COME FORWARD.  HE ALSO ARGUED THAT BASHIR WAS 
SIMPLY UNAWARE OF ACTIVITIES SOME OF THE NIF MEMBERS OF 
THE GOVERNMENT HAD UNDERTAKEN.  FINALLY, MARTIN SAID THAT 
AS TIME PASSED BASHIR FEARED THAT EVEN IF HE WANTED TO 
MAKE CHANGES THE NIF HAD SO INFILTRATED ALL ELEMENTS OF 
THE SUDANESE POWER STRUCTURE THAT HE COULD NOT BE SURE 
THAT ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE THINGS SUCCEED.  MARTIN SAID THAT 
VIRTUALLY EVERYONE AROUND BASHIR WAS A NIF LOYALIST AND 
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME OF BASHIR'S ATTEMPT TO ASSERT 
AUTHORITY WILL BE HIS ASSASSINATION. 
 
3.  MARTIN SAID BASHIR'S NEXT STEP WOULD BE TO PURGE 
SUDAN'S SECURITY SERVICE OF THOSE LOYAL TO OUSTED CHIEF 
NAFI ALI NAFI (REPORTING IN OTHER CHANNELS INDICATES THIS 
MAY ALREADY HAVE BEGUN).  AS HAS BEEN HINTED IN THE LOCAL 
MEDIA, MARTIN ALSO PREDICTED FURTHER CHANGES IN THE 
GOVERNMENT. 
 
4.  COMMENT: COL. MARTIN HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT CONTACTS 
WITH THE SUDANESE ARMY.  AS MEMBER OF BASHIR'S 
REVOLUTIONARY COMMAND COUNCIL HE WAS KNOWN BE CLOSE TO THE 
PRESIDENT.  THE FACT THAT MARTIN HAS CONSORTED WITH U.S. 
DIPLOMATS AND OTHERS NOT SEEN TO BE FRIENDLY TO THIS 
REGIME WITHOUT HARASSMENT OR HINDERENCE ALSO INDICATES A 
HIGH LEVEL PATRON.  MARTIN'S VIEW OF THE IMMEDIATE 
POST-COUP RELATIONSHIP VIOLATES CONVENTIONAL WISDOM BUT 
THE REALITY IS NOT KNOWN WITH CERTAINTY.  HIS INFORMATION 
HAS NOT ALWAYS BEEN ENTIRELY ACCURATE (E.G., LAST YEAR HE 
TOLD US THAT THE GOS HAD LAUNCHED A THREE PRONGED 
OFFENSIVE WHEN, IN FACT, IT HAD ONLY PLANNED SUCH AN 
OFFENSIVE).  WE HAVE NO CORROBORATION, BUT WE BELIEVE 
THERE IS AT LEAST A KERNEL OF TRUTH IN WHAT HE HAS TOLD US 
AND THEREFORE REPORT IT. 
 
5.  SINCE THE WHOLESALE LEADERSHIP CHANGES IN THE SECURITY 
SERVICES AND THE LESS SWEEPING CABINET CHANGES ON AUGUST 
12 (SEE REFTEL), WE HAVE SENSED THAT FISSURES MIGHT BE 
OCCURING IN WHAT HAD BEEN VIEWED AS A MONOLITHIC GOS/NIF 
REGIME.  BASHIR'S ANNOUNCEMENT YESTERDAY THAT ALL 
POLITICAL DETAINEES WOULD BE RELEASED AND THAT ELECTIONS 
FOR BOTH PARLIAMENT AND THE PRESIDENCY WOULD TAKE PLACE 
NEXT YEAR ADD TO THAT SENSE. 
 
5.  WE CANNOT, OF COURSE, BE CERTAIN WHAT PROMPTED BASHIR 
TO ACT AFTER SIX YEARS OF NIF MISBEHAVIOR BUT THE MUBARAK 
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT COULD WELL HAVE DONE IT.  BASHIR 
KNOWS THAT AT SOME POINT THE ETHIOPIANS WILL GO PUBLIC. 
HE COULD SIMPLY BE PREPARING THE GROUND FOR A DEFENSE THAT 
WOULD ADMIT PROBLEMS BUT CLAIM THEY ARE SOLVED, OR HE 
COULD BE AFTER A MORE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN HIS 
GOVERNMENT.  IF THE LATTER IS TRUE, HIS LIFE MAY WELL BE 
IN DANGER. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
 
CARNEY