US embassy cable - 03KATHMANDU739

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000739 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S MAOIST LEADERS RETURN TO INFLEXIBLE STANCE 
ON CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 723 
     B. KATHMANDU 652 
     C. KATHMANDU 675 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert K. Boggs for reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  In an April 22 mass meeting held in 
southwestern Nepal, Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai 
reportedly stated that the "introductory round" of peace 
talks originally scheduled for April 21 was postponed (ref A) 
due to ambiguity in the government's stand on the "political 
agenda" of the talks (i.e. the question of a constituent 
assembly.)  Variously calling on King Gyanendra to clarify 
the Government of Nepal (GON)'s position or take part in the 
talks personally, he reiterated the Maoist commitment to a 
constituent assembly.  Bhattarai's speech, peppered with 
belligerent rhetoric, echoed similar comments made in an 
April 21 press release by Maoist leader Prachanda.  End 
summary. 
 
2.  (U) Speaking to a public gathering in the southwestern 
district of Kailali on April 22, Maoist leader Baburam 
Bhattarai reportedly claimed that his negotiating team 
postponed peace talks scheduled for the previous day (ref A) 
because the GON had not taken a clear position on the issue 
of a constituent assembly.  Stating that "the King has been 
sending contradictory messages," Bhattarai insisted that "if 
the King is really honest about peace, he should come up with 
a clear political agenda."  Newspaper reports of the speech 
were contradictory, with some claiming that Bhattarai said 
the Maoists "surfaced in the public to hold direct talks with 
the King," and other reports quoting him as saying the 
Maoists would meet with the King's emissaries. 
 
3.  (U) Bhattarai also told the crowd, which reports 
estimated at approximately 30,000, that the Maoists would not 
abandon their basic demands.  "There is no alternative to the 
requirement of a new constitution, which should be built 
through a constituent assembly, followed by a round-table 
conference and an interim government," he reportedly said. 
 
4.  (U) Reports of Bhattarai's speech included some examples 
of hyperbolic saber-rattling, including his promise of "a 
decisive war" if the government does not seriously pursue 
peace talks.  "We returned to the peace process not because 
we wanted a safe landing after being defeated or exhausted by 
war," Bhattarai reportedly said, "but because we wanted a 
progressive political outlet."  Stating that the Maoists have 
"thousands of cadre who are ready to lay down their lives," 
as well as "ultramodern rocket launchers," Bhattarai 
proclaimed that "if the state tries to crush (the Maoists), 
we will fight a decisive war to capture power at the center." 
 
5.  (U) Bhattarai's comments echoed an April 21 press release 
by Maoist leader Prachanda.  Breaking his month-long silence, 
the Maoist Chairman said that "it is well known that (the 
Maoists) are moving responsibly forward in the talk process," 
and that the GON "is trying to strengthen its power rather 
than proposing a political solution."   In the April 21 
release, Prachanda backed away from previous statements made 
by the Maoist negotiating team, which had indicated a 
willingness to work with an all-party government, and 
repeated his demand for a constituent assembly.  "The 
constitution of the past has failed to find a solution to the 
problems facing the people," the statement read. "Therefore 
there is an urgent need to form a new constitution...  The 
assumption of various political parties, including the 
Communist Party - United Marxist Leninist, that only a 
so-called all-party government can... resolve the crisis 
facing the country is an illusion."  Stating that "neither a 
so-called all-party government, nor reinstatement of the old 
parliament, nor reinstatement of the Deuba government" would 
be able to resolve the crisis, Prachanda said that the "real 
political solution can be found only by focusing on the peace 
process and by movement toward building a new constitution 
through a constituent assembly." 
 
6.  (C) Comment:  Bhattarai's statement is clearly offered as 
a pretext for the Maoists' decision to postpone the opening 
round of talks after publicly lambasting purported delays on 
the part of the GON.  Pinning the delay on the GON's failure 
to address the controversial topic of a constituent assembly 
at the first round of negotiations is a flimsy cover for an 
obvious desire on the part of the Maoists to see how 
events--ongoing student unrest (refs A and B) and rumored 
changes in the Cabinet (ref C)--play out.  The Maoists' 
sudden inflexibility on the issue of a constituent assembly 
raises questions about the motive behind this apparent shift 
in rhetoric.  The Maoists undoubtedly have heard rumors that 
the GON is considering an all-party government, and are 
striving to prevent the parties from joining forces with the 
King.  Post does not see the change as evidence of a split in 
the Maoist ranks, but will continue to monitor the situation 
closely in the coming weeks. 
MALINOWSKI