US embassy cable - 03HARARE779

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000779 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, DRL 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2013 
TAGS: ECON, ELAB, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: FUEL PRICE INCREASE TRIGGERS ZCTU CALL FOR MASS 
ACTION 
 
REF: A. A) HARARE 752 
 
     B. B) HARARE 550 
 
Classified By: Laboff KRBel for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary.  After the GOZ unilaterally authorized a 300% 
increase in gasoline prices outside the Tripartite 
Negotiating Forum (TNF) framework (ref a), the Zimbabwe 
Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) has retaliated by calling for 
a three-day mass stayaway and announcing its immediate 
withdrawal from the TNF process (ref b).  Despite ZCTU claims 
that it is coordinating efforts with other segments of civil 
society, the opposition party Movement for Democratic Change 
(MDC) reports that it is not playing an active role.  Initial 
assessments indicate that the level of traffic around town is 
extremely low, with very few commuter omnibuses plying the 
usual routes; banks are closed throughout Harare, and up to 
90% of Harare businesses are closes in industrial zones. 
Ironically, the GOZ's incremental efforts to inch the economy 
toward a sustainable position are likely to push labor more 
firmly into open cooperation with the opposition.  End 
summary. 
 
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Labor's Response to Fuel Increases 
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2. (SBU)  The ZCTU called a General Council meeting on April 
16 to consider its reactions to the hefty increase in fuel 
prices, which still remain heavily subsidized.  Some transit 
operators responded to the price increase by increasing the 
fare for a one-way trip into Harare to Zim $500 (US $.37), 
despite GOZ regulations fixing the price at around Zim $200. 
Even though the fuel price increase is one of the few 
positive economic moves initiated by the GOZ, the economic 
reality -- wherein many workers earn around $25,000 per 
month, yet transport costs now total $5,000 per week -- is 
unsustainable for the majority.  The ZCTU General Council 
demanded that the GOZ immediately rescind the price increase, 
failing which they would call for unspecified action. 
Predictably, the GOZ ignored the call, and ZCTU called for a 
three-day stayaway beginning April 23. 
 
3. (SBU) Initial assessments indicate that many are heeding 
the call.  Street traffic is considerably lower volume, and 
the level of people on the streets is similar to that during 
the March MDC stayaway.  Most banks are closed throughout 
Harare, although some shops and grocery stores are still 
open.  Between 70% and 90% of businesses are shut down in 
Harare's industrial zones.  The majority of businesses still 
open seem to be informal traders and smaller, owner-operator 
type businesses, with the exception of three or four notable 
giants -- including Coca-Cola, Chibuku Breweries, and several 
export-oriented businesses.  If the most recent stayaway is 
any indication, participation could build over the next two 
days to the point that all businesses are brought to a 
virtual standstill. 
 
4. (SBU)  Contacts within labor report that the ZCTU is 
coordinating this stayaway with other groups within civil 
society.  Although some labor leaders would rather have 
waited a few weeks to call for mass action, others -- whose 
constituents demanded immediate action to address the 
worsening transport crisis, as well as the GOZ's perceived 
perfidy in raising prices unilaterally -- carried the day. 
Labor leaders now hope to initiate protest action which can 
be continued, in turn, by other groups opposed to the Zanu-PF 
leadership during the following weeks.  Labor leaders have no 
illusions about the GOZ's likely response to this call, and 
are prepared to be arrested.  Several leaders reportedly 
joked, with gallows humor, that given the notorious prison 
conditions under which opposition leaders are commonly held, 
they deliberately wore suits (for the added warmth from the 
suit coats) to work.  Their main request, voiced through the 
Solidarity Center rep, is that the international community 
continue to focus attention on their plight should the 
expected brutal retaliation materialize. 
 
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MDC Supportive, But Not Involved In Organizing 
--------------------------------------------- - 
5.(C) The MDC has publicly offered moral support to ZCTU for 
the stayaway, and according to Gandi Mudzingwa, MDC special 
assistant to the President, the MDC has also offered the 
assistance of its structures to help mobilize people.  The 
ZCTU has, however, not requested any assistance.  Mudzingwa's 
thought was that with the lead time ZCTU has given itself, 
they have not done sufficient organizing to ensure the 
success of this stayaway; leaflets have not been printed, 
other potential partner organizations have not been roped in 
firmly.  If it succeeds, it will be due to people's 
frustration rather than ZCTU planning.  Also, if it succeeds 
it will help gel momentum for the MDC's own mass action 
planned for about May 13, and perhaps open a key second front 
in the fight against ZANU-PF.  If it fails, it will not hurt 
the MDC's plans because there is widespread belief that 
regime change will not occur through a stayaway alone, but 
rather through more direct public action.  (Note: The MDC 
originally planned for their next mass action to start on May 
6, but Mudzingwa said on April 22 that another week was 
likely going to be necessary to organize.  End Note.) 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (C)  This development tallies with previous indications 
that the ZCTU was "going through the motions" with the TNF 
until the GOZ committed some error so gross that the labor 
constituency (up to one-third of which comprises Zanu-PF 
supporters) demanded mass action.  Although the TNF process 
has dragged laboriously on, a signed agreement endorsing the 
basic goals of the process -- increasing the minimum wage, 
establishing a price control board to review price increases 
in relation to inputs, and committing the GOZ to various 
measurable goals such as reducing inflation -- never quite 
materialized.  Ironically, the GOZ is countering the ZCTU 
call for action with a front-page Herald article claiming 
that the ZCTU actually "played a full part in the (TNF) talks 
that resulted in the new fuel prices..."  This claim is 
disingenuous at best, considering that no TNF agreement has 
been finalized and no price control board has yet been 
established.  The conundrum is that the reduction of the fuel 
subsidy and subsequent price increase, in itself, is the type 
of economic tough-love necessary to get the country back on a 
realistic and stable footing.  The two mutually exclusive 
goals -- labor's attempts to shield workers from their own 
poverty, and the GOZ's attempts to inch the country toward 
economic viability -- seem destined to push labor into the 
camp of those alienated by the GOZ's economic and political 
mismanagement. 
 
7. (C) Comment continued: Although ZCTU contacts have said 
this action is being coordinated with other civil society 
groups, it appears the MDC has not been asked to play a 
participatory role.  Even if the level of groundwork the ZCTU 
has done is unclear, many people are away from work this week 
due to the Easter holiday, and building frustration with fuel 
and other shortages could combine to make a successful work 
stoppage.  If some level of good participation is achieved, 
we would expect the GOZ to react with a heavy hand toward 
anyone perceived to be involved in planning this effort and 
will monitor closely who takes the heat, and any effect this 
stayaway has on the MDC's plans.  The Embassy's liberal leave 
policy will be in effect for the relevant days.  End Comment. 
SULLIVAN