US embassy cable - 03AMMAN2402

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002402 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, SOCI, JO 
SUBJECT: PM AFFIRMS GOJ INTENT TO HOLD ELECTIONS JUNE 17, 
YET MANY WONDER IF IT'S A WISE IDEA 
 
REF: AMMAN 1336 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm.  Reasons 1.5(B) and (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) PM Ali Abul Ragheb affirmed publicly on April 18 that 
the GOJ intends to proceed with parliamentary elections on 
June 17.  However, the King told the British Ambassador that 
there were 70-30 odds that elections would go forward as 
planned and   the King confided to the Ambassador on April 
18th that there is a possibility of delaying the elections 
for two months, weighing June 17 against a possible September 
9 date.  Numerous contacts and potential candidates affirmed 
they were waiting to hear whether the GOJ intended to proceed 
with the elections, and many wonder if the June 17 date was 
the wisest choice in an uncertain political climate.  On the 
other hand, a fourth postponement of the election date would 
not help the King's credibility, already shaken by public 
suspicions that he did much more to help the coalition in 
Iraq than he is willing to admit in public.  End Summary 
 
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ONE STEP FORWARD...ONE STEP BACK? 
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2. (C) The PM announced on April 18 that the GOJ will hold 
parliamentary elections on June 17 and urged potential 
candidates "to start presenting themselves to the public". 
He also urged citizens to participate in the election process 
and to vote for those who will best serve Jordan's and 
citizens' interests.  British Ambassador Prentice told the 
Ambassador that King Abdullah had told him last week that the 
odds of holding elections in June were 70-30.  On April 18th, 
however, the King told Ambassador Gnehm that he was weighing 
the option of a two month delay and considering September 9th 
as an alternate date.  Such a date, he said, would be more in 
keeping with the traditional October start date for new 
Parliaments. 
 
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MANY SEEK POSTPONEMENT OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
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3. (C) In a series of meetings over the past months with 
former Ministers, ex parliamentarians, potential candidates 
for parliament, businessmen and political analysts, contacts 
shared their views on how Jordan has fared since Parliament 
was dissolved two years ago, wondered about the timing of the 
elections in June, and whether the elections should proceed 
as planned in the context of the war in Iraq and its 
aftermath.  Most of our contacts said the government erred by 
deciding to hold elections on June 17, given the war in Iraq, 
a known quantity at the time the election date was announced. 
 Nearly all argued that the GOJ should postpone elections for 
a fourth time citing the war in Iraq and the uncertain 
political environment post war. 
 
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SOME FEAR IF ELECTIONS HELD, EXTREMISTS WILL BENEFIT 
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4. (C) Some contacts suggest it would be wise if the 
government postponed the June elections until the fall to 
allow breathing room between the end of the war in Iraq and 
new elections.  If elections take place in June, as 
scheduled, some feel the Islamic Action Front (IAF)--which 
boycotted the last parliamentary elections but are expected 
to participate in June--would make substantial gains in 
parliamentary seats.  While some see this as a potential 
result of Jordanians' anti-war ire, they are confident the 
government is capable of handling the Islamists and see this 
development as a positive step since the most vocal and well 
organized opposition in Jordan would be working within 
Jordan's political establishment.  However, several potential 
candidates have told us they will have to match the IAF's 
anti-American and anti-Israel rhetoric to be able to compete 
in elections held in June.  Other ex MP's have told us they 
have been unable to get campaign workers to focus on 
elections, both because of the war and because many believe 
the GOJ will postpone elections again. 
COMMENT 
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5. (C) The King's private comments on an election date 
notwithstanding, the PM's public announcement of elections on 
June 17 will be tricky to pull back.  We believe that there 
is another important factor at work in this which the GOJ 
should consider--concern for the King's credibility.  Many 
Jordanians are convinced that the King did far more to help 
the coalition than he is willing to admit in public.  Another 
seeming broken promise would do nothing to repair the King's 
standing. 
GNEHM