US embassy cable - 95BEIRUT2749

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002749 
 
 
E.0.12356:DECL:07/12/00 
TAGS:  PGOV, PTER, LE 
SUBJECT:  AMAL PERSPECTIVES ON HIZBALLAH CHANGES 
 
REFTEL:  A) BEIRUT 2725, B) BEIRUT 2659 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY.  HIZBALLAH ANNOUNCED THE RE-ELECTION OF 
ITS TWO TOP LEADERS AND SOME MODEST STRUCTURAL 
CHANGES, BUT HAS NOT RELEASED NAMES OF NEW 
CONSULTATIVE COUNCIL MEMBERS, OSTENSIBLY ON SECURITY 
GROUNDS.  A SENIOR AMAL OFFICIAL CONFIRMED HIS 
PARTY'S UNDERSTANDING THAT HIZBALLAH ULTRA-EXTREMIST 
SUBHI TUFAYLI IS OUT.  THE AMAL SOURCE SAID THE 
CHANGE CAME AMIDST A WIDER SHIFT IN POWER WITHIN 
HIZBALLAH, AWAY FROM BIQA' VALLEY CADRES TOWARD 
SOUTHERN LEADERS.  WHILE THE CHANGES WITHIN HIZBALLAH 
ARE SEEN HERE AS FURTHER STEPS PREPARATORY TO AN 
EVENTUAL TRANSITION FROM MILITIA TO LEGITIMATE 
POLITICAL PARTY, AMAL BELIEVES (OR AT LEAST HOPES) 
THAT HIZBALLAH IS MISTAKEN IN ITS CONFIDENCE OF 
SYRIAN BACKING FOR ITS POLITICAL AMBITIONS IN AN ERA 
OF PEACE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  HIZBALLAH HAS ANNOUNCED THE RE-ELECTION OF 
SECRETARY GENERAL HASSAN NASRALLAH AND DEPUTY SECGEN 
NA'IM QASSIM AT A GENERAL CONVENTION EARLIER THIS 
MONTH, BUT WILL NOT RELEASE THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE 
CONSULTATIVE COUNCIL (MAJLIS ASH-SHURA).  A PARTY 
SPOKESMAN CITED THE ISRAELI THREAT AS REASON FOR 
SECRECY.  THERE WAS NO WORD ON WHETHER NASRALLAH HAS 
RETURNED FROM IRAN, WHERE HE WAS PRESUMABLY VETTING 
THE CONVENTION RESULTS. 
 
4.  MUHAMMAD 'UBAYD, POLITICAL ADVISOR FOR AMAL 
MOVEMENT AND SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE INFORMATION 
MINISTRY, CONFIRMED TO US THAT SUBHI TUFAYLI, FORMER 
PARTY SECGEN AND A RECOGNIZED LEADER OF THE MOST 
RADICAL TREND IN HIZBALLAH, DID NOT WIN RE-ELECTION 
TO THE COUNCIL.  'UBAYD SAW TUFAYLI'S OUSTER AS PART 
OF A TREND AT THE CONVENTION TO EASE OUT BIQA' VALLEY 
ELEMENTS IN FAVOR OF SOUTHERNERS (THE HOME BASE OF 
NA S RALLAH ) . 
 
5.  THE BIQA'-SOUTH FAULT LINE COINCIDES GENERALLY 
WITH A (COMPARATIVE) HAWK-DOVE SPLIT INSIDE THE 
PARTY.  HIZBALLAH HAS A STRONGER BASE IN THE BIQA' 
AND AMONG SOUTHERN SUBURB RESIDENTS ORIGINALLY FROM 
THE BIQA', THAN IT DOES IN THE SOUTH, WHERE POLITICAL 
LOYALITIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO REST WITH AMAL AND THE 
OLD LANDED FAMILIES.  HIZBALLAH HAS WORKED TO MAKE 
IN-ROADS THERE, BUT THE UNPOPULARITY OF THE 
RESISTANCE IN MANY QUARTERS ALONG THE FRONT LINES HAS 
UNDERMINED THOSE EFFORTS. 
 
6.  CONSOLIDATION OF HIZBALLAH LEADERSHIP IN SOUTHERN 
HANDS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THOSE 
FORCES WITHIN THE PARTY WHO ARE BRACED FOR AN END TO 
MILITIA ACTIVITIES, AND WANT TO PREPARE FOR MORE 
NORMAL POLITICAL ACTIVISM.  AMAL OFFICIAL 'UBAYD 
CLAIMED TO US, HOWEVER, THAT HIZBALLAH'S MAINSTREAM 
HAS OVER-ESTIMATED SYRIAN WILLINGNESS TO PROTECT THE 
PARTY ONCE PEACE WITH ISRAEL IS REACHED.  COMMENT: 
THIS OBSERVATION COULD BE WISHFUL THINKING ON THE 
PART OF AMAL, WHICH IS STRUGGLING WITH HIZBALLAH FOR 
SHI'A LOYALTIES.  IF DAMASCUS IS TRUE TO FORM, IT 
WOULD MOST LIKELY NOURISH BUT CONFINE HIZBALLAH, AS A 
TOOL TO KEEP SYRIA'S PRINCIPAL SHI'A ALLY, NABIH 
BERRI, IN LINE.  END COMMENT. 
 
7.  REF A CONVEYS OTHER DETAILS ON CHANGES MADE 
WITHIN HIZBALLAH, AS REPORTED BY IBRAHIM AL-AMIN IN 
"AL-SAFIR" NEWSPAPER.  IN SHORT, TYRE-BASED HIZBALLAH 
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT MUHAMMAD RA'D BECAME HEAD OF THE 
POLITICAL COUNCIL (THE RENAMED POLITBURO), BUMPING 
OUT HUSSEIN KHALIL.  KHALIL WAS NAMED POLITICAL 
ADVISOR TO NASRALLAH, IN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A 
COME-DOWN.  A JIHADI COUNCIL WAS MADE TO CONSOLIDATE 
CONTROL OVER ALL SECURITY AND MILITARY OPERATIONS, 
UNDER SOUTHERNER HASHIM SAFI-AD-DIN.  THE BLOC OF 
HIZBALLAH MPS GAINED A MORE FORMAL ROLE WITHIN THE 
PARTY WITH THE CREATION OF THE "COUNCIL OF THE 
PARLIAMENTARY BLOC."  A LEBANESE REPRESENTATIVE OF 
AL-KHAMEIN'I, THE BIQA'-BASED MUHAMMAD YAZBEK, 
RETAINED A PLACE IN THE EXECUTIVE BOARD OF THE 
CONSULTATIVE COUNCIL. 
 
8. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, PAPERS ALSO REPORT TRENDS 
WHICH SUGGEST BUSINESS AS USUAL FOR HIZBALLAH:  THE 
OFTEN INACCURATE DAILY "NIDA' AL-WATAN" REPORTED THE 
RE-ELECTION OF IMAD MUGHNIYAH AS THE CENTRAL SECURITY 
CHIEF, WITH FOUR ASSISTANTS NAMED MUSTAFA BADR 
AD-DIN, TALAL HAMIYAH, HAJ MUHAMMAD AHMAZ, AND 
HUSAYNI ATRYSSI.  THE MORE RESPECTED "AN-NAHAR" 
REPORTS THAT HIZBALLAH HAS RECEIVED MORE 
SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS FOR USE AGAINST THE ISRAELIS, 
BUT OFFERS NO FURTHER CLARIFICATION. 
 
SCHLICHER