US embassy cable - 03LAGOS813

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000813 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED--PLEASE HANDLE 
ACCORDINGLY 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, PREL, SOCI, KDEM, ASEC, CASC, ECON, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SOUTHWEST POLITICS UPENDED AS 
POLL DEADLINE APPROACHES 
 
1.  (U) SUMMARY.  The April 19 gubernatorial and 
presidential election will be a remarkable test of 
incumbent power-players and ethnic politics in the 
Southwest.  After stunning defeats in the National 
Assembly elections on April 12, the Alliance for 
Democracy (AD) is fighting for its political life. 
Free and fair or not, the public will judge the 
relative strength of candidates and entrenched 
interest groups from the outcome.  Although the AD 
is encouraging its supporters to cast a protest 
vote against Obasanjo, such action is unlikely to 
deny Obasanjo victory in the southwestern states. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
 
--------------------------- 
WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEKEND? 
--------------------------- 
 
 
2.  (U) In the Southwest, the April 19 poll will 
especially test the strength and relevance of 
Afenifere, the most prominent Yoruba socio- 
cultural interest group.  Afenifere leadership has 
long served as a rallying point for Yorubas. 
Following the April 12 National Assembly election, 
Afenifere met with the six Southwest governors, 
all of whom belong to the AD, to review the 
results.  In that election, the AD lost nearly all 
of its National Assembly seats to the national 
ruling party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP). 
Apart from AD's success in Lagos State, last 
weekend's polls marked the first time since 
Nigeria's independence that a mainstream Yoruba 
political party has fallen in the Southwest. 
Unable to fathom a tenable reason for this poor 
showing, the Afenifere-AD leadership concluded 
their failure was the PDP's handiwork.  They 
alleged that the PDP manipulated the electoral 
process and intimidated their supporters. 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
WHAT'S NEXT?  WHAT DOES IT MEAN? 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
3.  (U) Top Afenifere and AD leaders, led by 
Senator Abraham Adesanya, met on April 14 with 
President Obasanjo to protest "massive rigging" of 
the National Assembly election.  They demanded 
that the President address the matter quickly or 
risk losing the Southwest's support.  The group 
warned it would not hesitate to direct its 
supporters--i.e. the extended Yoruba nation--to 
cast protest votes against Obasanjo and vote 
instead for the AD.  NOTE:  As the AD did not 
field a presidential candidate of its own, under 
election rules, such ballots should not count as 
valid votes but should be reflected in the 
"rejected votes" total.  The damage to Obasanjo 
would be that the votes he expected from the 
Southwest would be reduced, forcing him to make up 
his count elsewhere.  If, however, the AD 
persuades voters to cast their lot with another 
candidate, especially Buhari, Obasanjo could face 
a much stiffer contest in the Southwest that would 
also make the nationwide vote count more 
competitive.  END NOTE. 
 
 
4.  (U) Afenifere's threat raises significant 
questions about its power in Southwest politics. 
Do Afenifere leaders really control the Southwest, 
as they often claim?  If last week's National 
Assembly election was not rigged as they claim, 
did it reflect a new Southwestern political 
reality?  If so, what is this new reality?  Did 
the Southwestern electorate throw its weight 
behind the PDP to signify solidarity with 
incumbent President Obasanjo, whom they failed to 
support in 1999?  Or, as international observers 
witnessed in some areas, were Yoruba voters 
confused about how and for whom to vote in last 
week's National Assembly election as opposed to 
this week's presidential election? 
 
 
5.  (SBU) Afenifere and AD will not give up 
without a fight.  They may do everything in this 
week's election that they accuse the PDP of having 
done last weekend--rigging, thuggery, bribery, 
manipulation--to counter a repeat attack by such 
means.  Senator Adesanya has already warned that 
the AD will forcefully resist any attempt to rig 
the coming election.  The Southwestern governors 
have all spoken along the same lines.  AD leaders 
may also engage in legal actions.  Such desperate 
measures might yield results favorable to AD in 
Lagos and Oyo states, but may not make a 
meaningful impact in Ondo, Ekiti, Osun, or Ogun 
states. 
 
 
6.  (SBU) COMMENT.  This Saturday's election could 
provide convincing proof of the true state of 
affairs in the Southwest.  We believe the most 
likely scenario is that Afenifere leaders have 
lost much of their former control.  But, if 
governors in such states as Ogun, Ekiti, and Osun, 
where the AD lost nearly everything last week are 
returned to power this weekend, then Afenifere is 
right and truly in charge.  If the Obasanjo-PDP 
performance on April 19 drops from their 
impressive showing on April 12, then something 
really went wrong for the AD last weekend, and 
their accusations of rigging carry more weight. 
The Southwest should be where the action is this 
election round.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
HINSON-JONES