US embassy cable - 03ABUJA683

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000683 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  CONDUCT OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY POLLS 
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons:  1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY:  This preliminary report on Nigeria's 
April 12 National Assembly elections provides an overview 
of Nigeria on election day.  More detailed observations and 
analysis will be provided septel.  The elections held in a 
relatively calm atmosphere.  Turnout was fair in most of 
the areas directly observed by EmbOffs, with percentages 
ranging from under 30 to about 60 percent.  Most polling 
stations opened late, many were under-staffed.  Most INEC 
staff seemed under-trained.  Domestic monitors were present 
at most sites visited and the major political parties, PDP 
and ANPP, had almost universal coverage of the polling 
sites.  Coverage by other political party agents was good 
in their respective areas of strength.  Embassy observers 
noted various technical irregularities in the voting 
procedure which seemed to be the result of inadequate 
training and preparation by INEC.  These anomalies did not 
appear to undermine the integrity of the voting process or 
vote tabulation at the individual polling stations. 
However, observers saw confusion and lack of organization 
at numerous vote collation centers.  Overall, INEC managed 
a barely adequate performance in polling places on Saturday 
but most people were willing to give INEC the benefit of 
the doubt.  However, the difficulties at the collation 
centers are cause for concern because they could cast doubt 
on the quality of the vote tabulation process and impact 
expectations for Saturday's Presidential and Gubernatorial 
polls.  INEC needs to focus on its performance in the next 
round.  (Specific recommendations in Para 11.)  Too few 
results are in for an assessment of the overall quality of 
the legislative elections.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
ATMOSPHERE 
---------- 
 
 
2.  (C)  Nigeria's National Assembly elections held on 
April 12, in a relatively calm atmosphere through most of 
the country.  There were reports of violence and 
irregularities from parts of the south-south (Delta oil 
region) and southeast (home of Nigeria's third-largest 
tribe, the Igbo) and isolated incidents reported throughout 
the country, but there was probably less violence on this 
Saturday than on most that preceded it this year.  The 
southwest (home to incumbent President Obasanjo and the 
seat of the Yoruba tribe) and the north (home of the Hausa- 
Fulani ethnic group) were relatively calm. 
 
 
TURNOUT 
------- 
 
 
3.  (C)  The turnout appeared fair throughout the areas 
observed by EmbOffs.  Lagos Conoffs reported a turnout of 
about 30 percent at the polling sites they visited in 
Rivers State.  In Lagos, they estimated turnout at about 40 
percent.  In Katsina State (in the northwest and home to 
ANPP Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari), and Kano 
state (a northern state that has either the largest or 
second largest population in Nigeria), turnout was running 
at about 50 percent.  Emboff reported between 40 and 50 
percent turnout at the sites visited in Edo State.  In 
Kaduna State (a state with a Christian/Muslim mixed 
population) and Plateau State (an ethnically-diverse state 
in Nigeria's middle belt) some sites had a 50 to 60 percent 
turnout. 
 
 
INEC PERFORMANCE 
---------------- 
 
 
4.  (C)  Nationwide, few polling places opened at the 0800 
starting time.  In the few areas that received timely 
materials, polling got underway at about 0900.  In most 
areas, polling began after 1000.  Observers in Imo State 
reported that INEC performed well.  In a few places 
scattered around the country, polling did not begin until 
early afternoon.  The cumbersome voting process prescribed 
by INEC required between 3 and 5 minutes per voter to 
accomplish in most stations.  (The best-run ones could 
manage a voter per minute.)  In many locations, party 
agents or observers filled in for the shortfall in INEC 
officials.  In most of these cases, the party agents did 
not act overtly partisan and contributed to the success of 
the polling exercise. 
 
 
SITE UNSEEN 
----------- 
 
 
5.  (C)  In two cases that Emboffs are aware of, one in the 
Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and one in Katsina State, a 
polling site was missing altogether.  In the FCT, DCM 
encountered a group of perhaps two hundred registered 
voters angry that INEC had not set up their polling 
station.  Two other co-located polling stations were 
operating on the same premises.  In Katsina, PolOff 
discovered a site, complete with ballot boxes and a 
fifteen-year-old Polling Assistant, but no materials and no 
indication that any voters had registered there.  About 50 
meters away, another polling site was up and running with 
20-30 people waiting their turn to vote. 
 
 
DOMESTIC MONITORS AND SECURITY 
------------------------------ 
 
 
6.  (C)  Domestic monitors, including the Nigeria Labour 
Council (NLC), FOMWAN (a Muslim women's organization), The 
Monitor Group (TMG) and the Justice, Democracy and Peace 
Commission (JDPC), were present at many sites.  The JDPC 
was the only one seen in Benin City.  The two major 
political parties (PDP and ANPP) had almost universal 
coverage of the widespread polling sites, with the parties 
strongest in the district generally better trained in 
election day activities than many INEC officials. 
 
 
7.  (C)  Security was present at most polling sites; 
policemen manning the polls were generally unarmed. 
Prisons, Immigration and Customs officers were present 
during the voting, and in some areas, soldiers had been 
deployed to help prevent violence. 
 
 
SECRET BALLOTS AND VOTE TABULATION 
 
SIPDIS 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
8.  (C)  Many polling sites made no provision for secrecy 
of the ballots as voters made their choices.  The extent of 
secrecy's compromise varied from voting in the middle of a 
crowd to party agents observing individuals' selections. 
In one case, a PDP party agent was taking blank ballots 
from voters and marking the ballots himself.  True secrecy 
was a rarity, found in perhaps 10 to 20 percent of stations 
visited. 
 
 
9.  (C) INEC's byzantine rules created some confusion at 
polling sites, but normally the party agents and poll 
workers were able to agree on how elections would be run. 
The atmosphere of consensus and cooperation frayed at the 
end of the day as results from polling stations were 
collected and forwarded to collection centers and on to the 
state capitals.  Unfamiliarity with the INEC forms caused 
much of the confusion in collating the results, and in some 
cases, zealous party agents would not allow results to be 
collated in the presence of "unauthorized" persons, whether 
in possession of identification or not.  Many collation 
sites operated with only candles or lamplight.  Some had to 
be moved because not even these forms of illumination were 
available. 
 
 
10.  (C)  COMMENT:   INEC managed to perform adequately 
(barely) on Saturday.  In spite of irregularities in the 
process, most witnesses believed that the irregularities 
were more technical in nature (e.g., whether the polling 
officials stamped the back of the ballot paper before 
issuing it) than substantive.  Party polling agents voiced 
few complaints to Emboffs.  Still, INEC could have done a 
much better job with a little more planning.  Distribution 
and collection of the ballots was not well organized on 
April 12, and its rule books were confusing.  INEC needs to 
stick to schedule and revamp its transportation plan to 
improve its performance by this Saturday.  While the 
materials were sufficient for the National Assembly 
elections, the larger turnouts expected for Presidential 
and Gubernatorial elections could cause some polling sites 
to run short (and raise tempers). If INEC does not resolve 
some of its problems by the April 19 elections, the quality 
and efficiency of the Presidential ballot could be 
questioned. 
 
 
 
 
11.  (U)  RECOMMENDATIONS:  It is not too late for INEC to 
succeed.  It needs at a minimum to: 
 
 
--  improve it delivery schedule to ensure polling stations 
open on time; 
 
 
--  issue radio clarifications during the week and produce 
a "cheat-sheet" to provide the basic guidelines for voting; 
 
 
--  ensure that poll agents understand the need for secrecy 
in balloting; and 
 
 
--  clarify and improve the tabulation and collation 
process. 
JETER