US embassy cable - 03ABUJA681

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000681 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: INEC UNREADY AS BUHARI AND OBASANJO 
CONTEST IN CLOSE RACE IN BENUE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: POLOFF visited local party officials, 
domestic and international election monitors, 
academics, and local INEC officials during an April 3- 
4 trip to Benue State.  Most believed violence is 
likely if electoral manipulation is obvious.  Only a 
few people believed INEC is prepared for the election. 
Conversations confirmed that President Obasanjo is 
still highly unpopular among significant numbers of 
the Tiv, Benue's largest and one of Nigeria's biggest, 
ethnic groups, because of the October 2001 massacre of 
over 200 civilians at Zaki-Biam.  Obasanjo may win 
Benue, but his victory is not assured.  Despite his 
recent illness and convalescence in Europe, PDP 
Governor George Akume is likely to be reelected.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C) On April 4, POLOFF paid an unannounced visit 
to the Makurdi INEC headquarters.  The lack of 
activity at the office was surprising considering less 
than a week remained before the National Assembly 
election.  Nevertheless, INEC officials claimed they 
were ready and they did not expect problems on 
election day.  POLOFF noted 20 cardboard boxes of 
election materials drying in the sun after being 
soaked in the pervious night's rain.  The INEC 
administrative officer explained that these were 
pamphlets and other "non-sensitive" materials.  He 
said the actual ballots and other tamper prone items 
were under lock and key at the Central Bank branch and 
would be delivered to polling places on the morning of 
the election.  Despite the poor condition of their 
vehicular "fleet," the INEC officials expected to have 
no trouble delivering the ballots on time so that the 
polls could open as scheduled. 
 
 
3.  (C) INEC's optimism was extreme, but not 
infectious.  Most other interlocutors were 
pessimistic.  Opposition party members and election 
monitors worried that rigging in certain Local 
Government Areas (LGAs) (specifically, Kwande, 
Katsina-Ala, Tarka and Gboko) would spark violence. 
Both Nigerian and international election monitors 
worried that the governing Peoples Democratic Party 
(PDP) would attempt to manipulate the vote in the ANPP 
or UNPP strongholds within the state. 
 
 
4.  (C) Conversations with Tiv, Jukun and Idoma 
politicians, election monitors, and academics revealed 
that President Obasanjo remains unpopular among the 
populous Tiv because of the October 2001 Zaki-Biam 
massacre.  The Tiv blame Minister of Defense T.Y. 
Danjuma, a Jukun, for Zaki-Biam.  By extension, they 
blame Obasanjo.  The comment "a vote for Obasanjo is a 
vote for Danjuma" was made often.  Former Chief of 
Defense Staff Gen. (Ret.) Victor Malu, whose home was 
burned and relatives killed during the violence at 
Zaki-Biam, been campaigning against Obasanjo. 
 
 
5.  (C) Although from a different ethnic group in 
another state, Vice President Atiku was given an 
important traditional honorary title by the Tiv and 
enjoys wide popularity, however, his positive standing 
is insufficient to diminish Tiv anger.  While Obasanjo 
may yet win in Benue, he cannot count on a large 
margin.  He will have to win significant Tiv votes, 
then count on the Jukun and Idoma to carry him.  With 
PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh being Idoma, Obasanjo 
will count on strong support from that quarter. 
 
 
6.  (C) On the other hand, ANPP Presidential candidate 
Muhammadu Buhari has encountered some friction from 
the prickly Tivs.  When he attempted to campaign in 
Benue a few months ago, some Tiv leaders cautioned him 
to bypass the state.  They said many Tivs were angered 
when stones were thrown at Vice President Atiku's 
motorcade at an event in Kano late last year.  They 
blamed Buhari supporters for Atiku's rough treatment 
and warned Buhari might get similar treatment if he 
came to Benue. 
 
 
7.  (C) The gubernatorial race features the incumbent 
George Akume (PDP) and challengers Paul Urongo (ANPP) 
and Mike Mku (UNPP).  Despite his recent illness and 
convalescence in Europe, Akume is likely to hang on to 
his position in a close race with Urongo. 
 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT: The problems INEC faces in Benue are 
not unique.  Few outside INEC's own offices believe 
its administrators and its newly trained poll workers 
are prepared for the elections.  Obasanjo will be in a 
competitive battle with Buhari to capture this 
populous state.  Obasanjo will hope that the 
antagonistic Tiv will stay home rather than vote for 
Buhari.  If so, Obasanjo's assured support among the 
Idoma and Jukun should write his ticket.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
JETER