US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA1062

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001062 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HOMELAND SECURITY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO, KPLS, TFUS01, TFUS02, TFUS02, Iraq 
SUBJECT:  THE SILENT MAJORITY:  CANADIAN OPINION OF THE U.S. 
AND THE WAR IN IRAQ 
 
Ref:  a) Ottawa 723; b) Ottawa 917 (C); c) Ottawa 1014; d) 
 
Quebec 51 (NOTAL) 
 
1. Summary. Ambassador Cellucci's public expression, March 
25, of U.S. "disappointment" over the Canadian government's 
posture on the war in Iraq has led to an outpouring of 
response from the general public.  Since the speech, public 
opinion polls have consistently shown growing public 
approval of U.S. action in Iraq.  Other anecdotal evidence, 
including public demonstrations and write-in campaigns to 
the Embassy, suggest far greater support from Canadians for 
the U.S. than could be inferred from Canadian media reports 
and government statements.  These indicators, however, show 
a divide between Anglophone Canada and Quebec, where a 
majority continue to oppose the war (reftel d), in part 
because much of their news comes from France.  End Summary. 
 
PUBLIC OPINION POLLING - GROWING SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. IN 
ANGLOPHONE CANADA. 
 
2. The latest Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted April 1-3, shows a 
majority of Canadians outside Quebec (54 per cent) support 
U.S. led military action.  Not surprisingly, Albertans are 
the Canadians most likely to express support for the U.S. 
(62 per cent); they are followed by residents of 
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55 per cent); Ontario (54 percent); 
Atlantic Canada (53 per cent); and British Colombia (51 per 
cent).  Nationally, Canadians are evenly split, with 48 
percent supporting and 48 per cent opposing the U.S. led war 
in Iraq.  In Quebec, however, only 29 per cent express 
support for the war in Iraq. 
 
3. A separate poll, conducted April 4-6 by COMPAS for "The 
National Post," confirms this trend in public opinion.  The 
COMPAS poll finds that 72 per cent of Canadians "believe 
Canada should have supported the U.S. at the start of the 
war."  That figure breaks down into 41 per cent who believe 
Canada should have given "verbal support" to the U.S. at the 
beginning of the war; and another 31 percent who say that 
Canadian support should have included a commitment of troops 
as well as verbal support.  However, a much smaller 
majority, 56 percent, agree with the original U.S. decision 
to invade Iraq. 
 
OTHER INDICATORS OF SUPPORT FOR THE U.S. - PUBLIC 
DEMONSTRATIONS. 
 
4. Since the invasion of Iraq, public demonstrations have 
been common in many of Canada's major cities.  Ottawa has 
witnessed regular anti-war and anti-U.S. demonstrations. 
Typically, those demonstrations have convened on Parliament 
Hill about noon on Saturday and circle the Embassy 
throughout Saturday afternoon.  The demonstrations of March 
29 were far different.  Despite a cold, steady rain, a group 
of 4,000 to 5,000, the largest since the onset of combat 
operations, rallied on Parliament Hill to demonstrate 
support for the coalition, with U.S. and UK flags on 
prominent display.  This contrasted with about 500 anti-war 
demonstrators who appeared near the Embassy.  On the same 
day there were also large "friends of the USA" 
demonstrations in Calgary and other communities in Alberta 
March 29.  A similar pro-U.S. rally drew about 4,000 in 
Toronto April 5 during one of the worst ice storms of the 
season. 
 
LETTERS FROM THE PUBLIC TO THE EMBASSY. 
 
5. Following Ambassador Cellucci's speech in Toronto, the 
Embassy was deluged with calls, e-mails and letters from the 
public.  Initially, the mailed letters were overwhelmingly 
supportive of the U.S. position, while electronic messages 
were largely critical.  In the past week, those 
communications have been more nearly balanced.  To date, the 
Embassy in Ottawa has received close to 600 letters 
supporting the U.S. and about 450 that are critical.  The 
Embassy in Ottawa has received about 150 e-mails that are 
supportive and about 250 that are critical. 
 
COMMENT. 
 
6. The polling data and the public response indicates there 
is more of a "silent majority" of Canadians outside Quebec, 
that supports U.S. action in Iraq than would be supposed 
from Canadian media coverage and commentary.  The polling 
data and public response also reinforce our observation that 
on this issue, Canadian media reporting and commentary are 
significantly driven by official Canadian government 
statements and by statements from the Liberal Party caucus. 
 
7. As for Quebec public opinion, a leading Quebec pollster 
suggested that Quebeckers receive a significant portion of 
their information from French sources.  TV5 is available on 
the ubiquitous cable channels, and Agence France Presse is 
frequently used by the Francophone media.  Given the sharply 
negative French take on Iraq, this pollster thought this 
accounted for at least part of the divergence with the rest 
of Canada. 
 
8. One thoughtful media pundit suggested that there is a 
large segment of the Canadian public who, whether or not 
they support Canada's direct involvement in the war, are 
deeply troubled that Canada is not supporting its two 
traditional allies, the U.S. and the U.K.  How these 
sentiments of the public may affect substantive Canadian 
support for large-scale humanitarian assistance and 
reconstruction efforts in Iraq remains to be seen.  END 
COMMENT. 
Cellucci