US embassy cable - 03ABUJA675

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000675 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTION UPDATE - WILL THEY BE READY? 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 502 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reason: 1.5(d). 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The April 12 National Assembly 
elections, to a significant degree, will be a dry-run 
for the presidential election one week later. The 
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) 
claims it is ready to conduct the election.  This 
cable provides an overview of INEC's preparation.  At 
this late stage, the lapses with voters registration 
are irrevocable.  However, INEC's calculation of the 
number of registered voters continue to undergo close 
scrutiny (septel).  Starting April 8, INEC began 
issuing voter cards and appeared seriously to tackle 
the massive logistical challenges of positioning 
material and personnel for election day.  There will 
likely be foul-ups in the stationing of personnel and 
materials on election day.  Confusion over who is or 
is not a registered voter will also hamper balloting 
in many places.  Hopefully these gaps will not be too 
numerous and INEC will acquit itself well on April 12. 
A responsible performance will lower the political 
temperature and create greater confidence that the 
April 19 Presidential election will be handled 
credibly.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
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MATERIAL ISSUES 
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2. (U) INEC now has almost all required materials in 
country, but has only started to distribute the 
material to Local Government Areas (LGAs).  Some LGAs 
may not receive materials in time to begin the voting 
at 0800 on Saturday, April 12.  The number of polling 
officials is also a concern.  With over 120,000 
polling stations nationwide and an average of five 
officials per station, INEC must employ hundreds of 
thousands of ad hoc personnel, many of whom may have 
received little training. 
 
 
3. (C) The voter card exchange, supposed to run from 
April 8 through April 10, has started in some areas. 
This process consists of changing the temporary voter 
slip given at voter registration for a card to be used 
on election day.  INEC Chairman Abel Guobadia has 
announced that people who did not receive the voter 
card would be able to make the exchange at the voting 
booth the day of the election.  (COMMENT: INEC's 
statements regarding the voter cards have been vague 
and unclear.  The decision to provide voter cards at 
the voting booth will likely complicate and confuse 
the election day process in many voting stations. END 
COMMENT). 
 
 
4. (C) INEC has released posters showing sample 
ballots and specimens have also been printed in many 
local daily newspapers.  In addition to the standard 
ballot, tendered ballots are allowed by Nigeria's 
Electoral Law.  A tendered ballot is one given to 
people whose name does not appear on the register or 
are otherwise disqualified from voting, but these 
ballots will not be counted.  Tendered ballots are 
required by the Electoral Law to be a different color 
from the standard ballot, but INEC has not prepared 
any formal tendered ballots.  Tendered ballots will 
simply be marked with a "T" by polling officials at 
the time of voting.  (COMMENT: The use of tendered 
ballots to ease the frustration of otherwise 
ineligible voters by letting them "participate" is 
laudable.  However, the system INEC has devised is 
short on controls and susceptible to manipulation. 
END COMMENT.) 
 
 
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SECURITY 
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5. (C) INEC has stated that elections will not be held 
in areas of violence, or even potential violence. 
Thus, it is likely INEC will not hold elections in 
Local Government Areas in Warri due to the ongoing 
crisis in that part of Delta State.  INEC also 
declared the need for "special security requirements" 
in six states where INEC experienced problems during 
the voter registration period.  These states are 
Bayelsa, Delta, Plateau, Nassarawa, Rivers and Taraba. 
Additional security measures to deal with the 
potentially troubled areas have not been described. 
 
 
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IN THE COURTS 
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6. (C) The Federal High Court in Abuja was scheduled 
to rule April 10 on the suit filed against INEC for 
allegedly violating the Electoral Law by not 
displaying the voters registration lists 60 days 
before the election.  COMMENT: The court might likely 
rule in favor of INEC.  Conversely, if the court rules 
that INEC violated the law, the ruling still might 
allow for the election to proceed.  However, an 
adverse ruling calling for postponement of the 
election is possible, although, at this stage, not 
very likely.  Whatever the court rules, the losing 
party will appeal.  Litigation has been an ongoing 
problem in the election process, adding confusion and 
delays, and will continue well past the elections 
themselves. END COMMENT 
 
 
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MONITORING THE SITUATION 
------------------------ 
 
 
7. (SBU) Realistic expectations put the number of 
domestic monitors at roughly 30,000 people, mostly 
from the four organizations including the Transition 
Monitoring Group and the JDPC.  Unfortunately, this 
number will not provide universal coverage of polling 
stations.  Moreover, coordination among the domestic 
groups is rare and has been marked by bickering. 
International monitors will exceed 150, mainly from 
the EU, the Commonwealth, IRI and NDI.  The Mission 
will be fielding more than 20 officers to polling 
places in ten different states. 
 
 
8. (C) COMMENT: The April 12 elections are important 
in and of themselves. But for many Nigerians their 
real value is that they provide an indication of INEC 
preparedness for the big contests - the April 19 
gubernatorial and presidential elections.  There will 
be glitches and some polling areas will not open on 
time, and certainly not end on time.  Nigerians expect 
a rough-hewn process.  In the end, INEC will not be 
judged so much by the glitches that occur, but by how 
quickly and impartially it handles them.  To a large 
degree, the success of these elections will depend on 
the ability of polling officials to resolve issues as 
they arise at the individual polling stations and on 
the integrity of senior INEC officials to safeguard 
the sanctity of the vote tabulation process. 
JETER