US embassy cable - 03ABUJA674

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS ON APRIL 12 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reason: 1.5(d). 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The April 12 National Assembly 
elections will demonstrate if the Independent National 
Electoral Commission (INEC) was right when it said it 
was ready to hold these and the April 19 gubernatorial 
and presidential polls.  In addition to being a 
logistical "dry run" for the April 19 polls, the 
National Assembly elections will indicate the 
prevailing political mood.  We believe the ruling 
People's Democratic Party (PDP) will lose some seats. 
Increased competition resulting from the entry of new 
political parties and unbridled aisle-crossing by 
incumbents who lost primaries will diminish today's 
substantial PDP majority.  However, if the PDP loses 
too many seats, "bandwagon effect" for the opposition 
could develop, spelling trouble for President Obasanjo 
the following week.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
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PDP Majority Likely To Diminish 
------------------------------- 
 
 
2. (C) The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) 
originally had a majority of 73 seats out of 109 (67 
percent) in the Senate and 216 seats out of 359 (60 
percent) in the House.  However, there will be many 
new faces in the next National Assembly.  The current 
National Assembly did not distinguish itself as a law- 
making body.  Most Nigerians saw it as venal, 
indifferent, and ineffective.  Some legislators from 
all three parties in the National Assembly (PDP, ANPP 
and AD) declined to seek party renomination because of 
their unpopularity, others found their renominations 
stymied by antagonistic governors.  Within the PDP, 
the Presidency and PDP National Executive teamed to 
foil the reelection ambitions of many other National 
Assembly incumbents who had supported the impeachment 
threat against President Obasanjo or had managed 
through other means to get on the President's bad 
side.  Only 30 percent of PDP incumbents were 
renominated by the PDP. 
 
 
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Citizens Frustrated 
------------------- 
 
 
3. (SBU) Given the PDP's sizeable numerical advantage 
some "leveling" was expected, under even the best 
circumstances.  However, current political and 
economic conditions have citizens seething.  Lengthy 
queues for petrol have become a symbol of a general malaise 
of ills.  Almost any incumbent would be nervous under 
these emergent conditions, but the PDP will bear the 
brunt of the electoral disaffection over a stagnant 
economy, deteriorating public infrastructure (schools, 
roads, hospitals, utilities), endemic corruption, 
widespread communal violence and the failure of all 
levels of government to meet their financial 
obligations.  After all, the ruling party has 
controlled the Presidency, 21 of 36 governorships and 
both Houses of the National Assembly for nearly four 
years. 
 
 
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More Competition 
---------------- 
 
 
4. (SBU)  Moreover, competition has been more intense 
than in 1999.  The fact that the number of parties has 
increased from 3 to 30 since the last election means 
the PDP will likely have a reduced share of the pie 
this time around.  Credible candidates who were 
reluctant to run in 1999 (perhaps because they feared 
the Fourth Republic would quickly vanish) have changed 
their minds.  Many of these candidates are running 
under the banner of opposition parties.  Some of the 
new parties, such as the Igbo-dominated All People's 
Grand Alliance (APGA), would have trouble winning the 
Presidency but can field popular candidates in some 
races on their home turf.  These smaller parties can 
give both the PDP and the main opposition All Nigerian 
People's Party (ANPP) a real run for popular votes. 
 
 
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Opposition from Governors and the Presidency 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
5.  (C) Another factor is that the advantages of 
incumbency are much weaker for National Assembly 
members than Governors or the President.  Again, 
because the PDP has such a large majority, it must 
defend more seats.  Finally, popular PDP incumbents 
who ran afoul of their governors or the Presidency 
typically found themselves denied renomination. 
Governors used their control of the PDP apparatus in 
their states to defeat political opponents during 
party caucuses late last year.  The Presidency more 
than once weighed in with governors and other state- 
level officials to stymie its opponents. 
 
 
6.  (C) Three of the four senior officers of the 
National Assembly might not return.  Having lost a 
battle for control of the Ebonyi PDP to Governor Sam 
Egwu and having failed in his effort to impeach 
Obasanjo for his support of Egwu, Senate President 
Anyim decided not to seek re-election.  Speaker of the 
House Ghali Umar Na'Abba was able to secure 
renomination despite Governor Kwankwaso's and 
Obasanjo's opposition because of overwhelming popular 
support for Na'Abba in his Kano constituency. 
However, the Kano PDP recently expelled Na'Abba for 
"anti-party" activity, an action that would have 
forfeited the seat.  Sensing trouble, the national PDP 
decided to "suspend" Na'Abba, so his post-election 
fate is far from clear, even if he wins his 
constituency.  Deputy House Speaker Prince Chibudom 
Nwuche's primary challenge failed to unseat Rivers 
Governor Peter Odili, a strong Obasanjo ally.  Among 
the top four National Assembly officers, only Deputy 
Senate President Ibrahim Mantu (another Obasanjo ally) 
seems certain to return. 
 
 
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Crossing the Aisle 
------------------ 
 
 
7.  (SBU) Popular politicians cast aside by the PDP 
often joined another party.  Nwuche pitched his tent 
with the ANPP, as did former Senate President 
Okadigbo.  Nwuche continues to run for the Rivers 
governorship and Okadigbo is now Buhari's running mate 
on the ANPP Presidential ticket.  Other PDP National 
Assembly members are seeking to return on the ticket 
of another party. 
 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) INEC plans to formally announce the results of 
the National Assembly elections on April 17, two days 
prior to the presidential contest.  Informal but 
accurate results may be known before then.  The timing 
of the results' announcement is extremely important. 
If the results are actually announced prior to April 
19, the legislative elections may take on aspects akin 
to a "vote of confidence" or a referendum on the 
President.  The PDP is expected to lose seats. 
However, losing too many seats, particularly in areas 
where the PDP was assumed to be strong, will be 
perceived as a shift in electoral momentum heading 
into the Presidential campaign.  It will be taken as 
evidence that Obasanjo's strength is waning and could 
produce a "bandwagon effect" away from the PDP.  The 
principal beneficiary of this phenomenon would be ANPP 
Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari. 
JETER