US embassy cable - 03ABUJA671

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000671 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT:  NIGERIA:  INEC - LESSONS IN FUZZY MATH 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons: 1.5 (B & D). 
 
 
1.  (SBU)  We have reported extensively on the troubles 
that have hampered the Independent National Election 
Commission's conduct of voter registration for the April 
elections.  One of the major factors contributing to the 
public consternation has been INEC's frequently 
inconsistent statements and recalculations of the key 
numbers in the registration exercise.  INEC has given 
different figures on the total number of registrations, the 
number of eligible voters (approved registrants) and the 
number of fraudulent applications.  This imprecision has 
lead INEC critics to complain that INEC is either 
incompetent or insincere.  There have been charges that 
INEC manipulated the voter's registration figures so that 
it could manipulate the actual voter count to favor the 
PDP.  While these accusations remain unproven, the best way 
for INEC to avoid the cloud of suspicion is to ensure that 
the vote tabulation is transparent and to make sure its 
figures are accurate before it releases any electoral 
results. 
 
 
2.  (SBU)  In September 2002, INEC Chairman Adel Guobadia 
announced that 72 million registration forms had been 
distributed throughout the country.  At the end of the 
process, he alleged that problems with availability of the 
forms were because millions of forms had been stolen by 
political agents and corrupt INEC officials at the local 
level.  (72-10=62)  According to his after-action report on 
the registration process, 4 million forms had been spoiled 
during the exercise.  (62-4=58)  INEC later announced that 
another 10 million had been identified as multiple 
registrants and deleted from the list.  (58-10=48)  The 
supplemental registration exercise in January 2003 
registered less than 2 million additional voters. 
(48+2=50)  Using these figures, we should expect 50 million 
registered voters.  (COMMENT:  The furor caused by the 
unavailability of forms last September may have prompted 
Guobadia to issue defensive, inaccurate statements that he 
probably regrets now.  His explanation that 10 million 
forms were stolen is probably one such statement he wishes 
he could retract.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
3.  (SBU)  However, in another September 2002 public 
statement at the end of the registration period, INEC 
announced there were "about 69 million" registered voters. 
By late January 2003, Guobadia cited about 67 million. 
(Two million missing.)  In March, his figure for total 
voters, after deducting underage and multiple 
registrations, fell to 64 million.  The numbers published 
this week show 60.8 million with 7 million registrants 
disqualified.  The range of disqualifications varied by 
state from a low of two percent in Plateau to a high of 37 
percent in Bayelsa.  Seven (or eight, depending on the 
math) million temporary receipts are potentially still in 
circulation. 
 
 
4.  (U)  There were 58 million eligible voters in the 1999 
elections.  In 2002, the northwest and northeast produced 
ten percent more voters, while the southwest number held 
steady.  The southern minority areas (south-south) 
registered a six percent growth, the north-central grew by 
about 3.5 percent, and the southeast shrank by about six 
percent. 
 
 
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COROLLARIES 
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5.  (U) The final tally of registered voters meshes with 
INEC's initial estimate made in 2002 that each polling site 
would be supplied with 500 ballots.  With about 122,000 
polling sites nationwide, a maximum of 61 million ballots 
will be needed, close to the 60.8 million official figure 
released early this week. 
 
 
6.  (C)  Unresolved issues surrounding INEC include claims 
from the September exercise that many eligible citizens 
were unable to register due to a lack of materials. 
Reports of manipulation of the lists by national and local 
officials are abundant but unsubstantiated.  Usually, the 
opposition claims that the incumbent has eliminated 
qualified voters from the register along ethnic lines. 
 
 
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FUZZY LOGIC 
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7.  (C)  COMMENT:  The imprecision, lack of transparency 
and inconsistent statements made by INEC over the course of 
its effort to register Nigerian voters leave an unfortunate 
hole in its credibility.  Many candidates who lose will 
likely point to INEC's mistakes as what cost them the 
election and then head straight to court to challenge the 
results.  A solid performance on election days will be 
necessary to dispel the public's doubts. 
 
 
JETER